Goldtent TA Paradise

US Dollar Fractal

1. pedro_deleon says:

   November 19, 2016 - 9:42 am at 9:42 am

   Pretty much in line with Sam’s DX count this weekend. Quite a ways to go before a top, time and price wise.

2. KenS says:

   November 19, 2016 - 11:01 am at 11:01 am

   If this is a half way point in the dollar’s advance, and a half way point in gold’s fall then:

   1900 to 1050 = -44.7%
   1375 X -44.7% = 760

   Is $760 gold on the horizon? My earlier posts show it well could be.

3. DaveintheUK says:

   November 19, 2016 - 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm

   USDX 120 wouldn’t surprise me at all.

   If you look at the chart, the gold price already made its low in 1999 at $253 and then rallied on the Central Bank Gold Agreement Washington Accord.

   Then, on the second leg up in the US dollar into 2001, gold just went back to $255 to re-test the low.

   Secondly, this time around, the first big upleg in the dollar from 80 to 100 in late 2014 into early 2015 was not such a bad time for gold really. The big down-moves in gold were in 2013 for instance when the USDX was stuck in the low 80s, so the gold/dollar inverse correlation is not that strong if you look at it in terms of timing.

   If this is like 1999/2000, we should expect gold to go down to retest the $1045 low perhaps but on a strong US dollar that would not be so bad in terms of gold prices in many other currencies.

   • DaveintheUK says:

     November 21, 2016 - 3:49 pm at 3:49 pm

     Also, if you take a look at the US dollar peak in 1985. Gold hit a low of $297.50 in 2002 on the crash after the 1980 peak of $850 and then had a quick bounce to the $520 level on a fairly brief correction in the dollar, which was similar to your other two halfway patterns on the chart.

     The US dollar then roared up to an outrageous value on the dollar index USDX of about 160 by early 1985 and gold merely retraced to test the previous low, well in this case it went below it, to $282. OK that would be the equivalent of gold retracing this time to about $1000/oz.

     As I mentioned above on the similar move in the dollar into 2001, gold also retested its previous bear market low but that time it made a higher low and on that occasion it was the start of a major bull market.

     The behaviour of gold on any strong dollar rally might then be crucial in determining whether we have a future bull market resumption in gold (like 2001) or if this is merely a bounce in gold early in a long bear, as in late 1982.

     http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=40&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1

4. Parabolic Chuck says:

   November 19, 2016 - 6:03 pm at 6:03 pm

   I like it. A little fakeout before a real breakout…

   Is just really strange that gold was BARELY down Friday. That has to mean something.

5. norvast says:

   November 20, 2016 - 5:47 am at 5:47 am

   What!

   Clearly the USD has a 15 year cycle and so, like in 2002, is about to break down for a few years!

   The short term cycle, particularly on the Swiss Franc, indicate that it will happen within a week around the 28 Nov

   The gold bull will resume shortly.

   • DaveintheUK says:

     November 21, 2016 - 4:04 pm at 4:04 pm

     It’s a but difficult with the timing because the dollar rallies and falls in that cycle have been a bit uneven, varying between about 6 and 9 years. It also depends on whether you take 2008 as a singular low in the dollar index or if you count 2008 low and the 2011 low in the USDX as a double bottom. That could stretch this dollar bull out quite bit longer. I mean you could take this dollar rally as March 2008 +7.5 years taking us to 2008.25 + 7.50 = 2015.75 (a Martin Armstrong type date concept and an important turn in his own cycles if I remember correctly as he said). That would mean dollar already peaked last year but it didn’t, because it just made a new high for the bull market since the Trump election in November 2016.

     Obviously a short and sharp dollar bull like the 1979-1985 one (about 6 years) would not work either, since the dollar would have already peaked in this cycle with anything less than an 8.5 year upmove, taking 2008.25 as the start if its bull run.

     Anyway, you could instead take 2009.5 as the approximate average of the 2008 and 2011 lows for the dollar and consider a dollar bull of 9 years taking you to 2009.50 + 9 = 2018.50.

     Or you could simply take 2008.25 (March 2008 low) and add 9 years to 2008.25 + 9 = 2017.25. I am using 9 because the previous dollar bull was 9 years from 1992 to 2001.

     So the year of the dollar peak is not easy to determine using the cycle in my view because it varies too much. The only thing it tells you is if things go like the past 45 years, the dollar will have something like 7.5 years of bear market once it peaks.

     However, we are in a credit bust cycle, more like the 1930s, which is arguably completely different from anything in the past 45 years. It is a once in 80 years event, a Kondratieff Winter. In that case, the dollar might break out of the past 45 years of cyclical action altogether and soar. Perhaps.

     • DaveintheUK says:

       November 21, 2016 - 4:07 pm at 4:07 pm

       Then of course, as in 1933 the US dollar could subsequently be arbitrarily devalued by the government by 40% or whatever.

6. DaveintheUK says:

   November 21, 2016 - 4:12 pm at 4:12 pm

   No I am going to make trouble. Is the above dollar chart a giant 31 year bullish falling wedge with a target of 160+?

   Or is it a huge Wolfe Wave with the 198 top as point 1 and the recent breakout as point 5, giving a very low target? A VERY low target.