Loading ...Bear Market Rally Over in Gold
Today’s action pretty much confirms that the bear market rally (wave B) has been completed and the final leg down (wave C) to new lows below $1050 has now started. Why do I believe this? It is my belief we experienced a 5 wave, multi-year decline from the top around $1900 to the low near $1050. This 5 wave decline was wave A of A-B-C correction. The rally from $1050 to around $1380 is a 3 wave structure which is wave B of the 3 wave correction. We should now experience a 5 wave decline (wave C) to new lows to complete the 3 wave A-B-C correction. This decline will likely be a multi year event at which time the buying opportunity of a lifetime will present itself.
All sounds impossible? Maybe, but it’s something everyone trading/speculating/investing in precious metals or the miners should consider and have a contingency plan for. We know (and have known for some time) the commercials are heavily short this market. Until the sentiment picture flips around and the commercial unwind their shorts, lower prices are likely ahead.
Thanks for the take TraderScott
I hope you are wrong of course…but anything goes here
Of course, none of us really know for sure where this market headed, we are all just outlining possibilities. Our trading/investing skills paired with patience and dicipline will determine if we are able to take any money out of the market. The scenario I have outlined seems compelling (to me anyway) based upon the wave structure and seems just as likely as the continuation of the bull market, if not more so. Full disclosure: flat the PM market and waiting for the gentlemen’s entry at a much lower entry price.
IF your scenario is correct, wave A took 5 years (2011-2016), so wave B should take 2-3 years and not only 9 months …
jmho.
Gabe:
Yep – so worst case we completed a of Wave B and are in b with c to go towards $1,500 for “all of A”
i am back from a walk in which i was wondering who would be the first to declare that the baby bull market died in the cradle.welcome trader scot.i dont recall seeing you before!funny thing is before the walk,i had a look at a certain article from plunger,
posted at investing.com at the end of july and declaring the next leg up.it is always amazing how sentiment,analysis,perception,and fortunes can change.mr market is a great deceiver.
Hi Scott – Yup (sorta). You may be interested in my long term EW count, under Keepers as the fourth post.
Meaning … not sure I agree that A down was a five waver. Doesn’t matter. A’s can be three or five. Messy one at the top.
B up. Agree with you there.
But I’m with Patty … we are will into b of B, with c up to go …. for “all of B” … not “all of A.” (FCG – can you edit for her?) Just to clarify for those confused by EW parlance.
(B waves are threes, and the subwaves are often 3-3-5. So Patty’s c up should be a fiver, and MIGHT be an ED where 1 launches and 2 pulls back deeply to start the wedge. Just a hunch.