Loading ...HUI
Yesterdays BO was in doubt at the close
Today there is NO Doubt
Any way you slice it this is a major breakdown
Maybe a bottom at the end of this week 193…
Kudoos to the many posters who hedged as they saw this coming
Plunger , Surf City ,Jordan , Avi and others .
They deserve the congratulations they deserve.
I am feeling rather stupid and uncomfortable at the moment.
Yet…
Just yesterday I bought back a not very PM related materials stock that I had sold in January that plunged to half its current value during the year and to me looked to be going bankrupt–but bought back at slightly higher price yesterday than I sold in January (down ~1% today but above where I sold it). Another example for buy/hold: Spock has recommended a stock I dumped on the way down. I’d have done *much* better financially with the buy and hold with that one than with the fancy market timing.
Someone recently mentioned TRX here. I will not go into the positives and negs, and one can feel free to attack me for my or my relatives having held it or not having held it, but I will say that the immediate family did ok, and the extended family made out well (life changing postive). In theory if I’d held until, say, last week or yesterday, I’d have done even better, though I personally did adequately on that one.
I’m not 100% sold on the idea that I/we would have done any worse (I’m looking into the future here) holding on to most of what we owned in 2010-2011, but just selling when we smelled something a little rotten or taking fractional profits when we sensed things were a bit overexcited, or taking profits on a takeover.
Someone a few months ago here said that he’d held onto all his stuff from 2010 or so and was politely criticized. I say its an open question whether he was right or not. He might simply have avoided accountants’ fees if things go higher. It’s not over until it’s over.
So I declare myself fair game for criticism, mockery. I feel stupid at the moment. Yet I remain to be shaken from buy-and-hold might be o.k., esp if with glances at charts and with attention to informed company updates, as from Spock. One does have to sell specific companies.
I plan to hold much of the stuff unless it goes WAY lower. If it goes much higher, I dump a lot of it. To each her own. Hedging–too much stuff to send to accountants, too much paperwork, too many fees, too much, too much. I recline.
The wedge pattern is pretty cookbook in EW. Always the second last move in a wave sequence.
Probably here, the B in an ABC correction off the highs. C waves FEEL like the sky is falling, like 3rd waves do.
I’ll be watching the 200dma’s for a bottom (after a pin, most likely).
My monthlies suggest this is just a correction (albeit within a larger correction). Avi doesn’t see it that way, I’ll add.
PS — why now? ECB tapering under discussion. Qtn for the forum — how much longer can they keep counterfeiting our money to keep the fat cats’ portfolios from blowing up? I don’t have the answer. But that’s the key question.