Loading ...Head and Shoulders Patterns
Tommy repeatedly says they are 93% to 97% Successful
I Say this is Ridiculous…NOTHING in TA is 90%+ predictive
65 to 70% would be incredibly good
if there was a 97% chance a pattern would be successful we would all be filthy rich
This Chart should put this MYTH to bed once and for all
I Maintain it is Dangerous to preach this kind of disinformation on a site which is dedicated to good and honest TA Teaching . There are many newbies here who could be influenced by these kinds of dogmatic pronouncements.
Is anyone really naïve enough to believe that a simple pattern such as this ..which can be recognized by anyone with 1/2 a brain cell could bring you a winner almost ALL the time ?
Sheesh
I am highly skeptical. I myself am so bad at the pattern (see it everywhere and nowhere) as to not bother with it. Your arguments, Fully, sound correct to me.
However, at least hypothetically, there could be a not fully conscious element to pattern recognition or something else going on such that Tommy uses just the right HS patterns to use. I therefore cannot be certain that Tommy isn’t in fact highly successful with his own personal use of the pattern.
Is it possible that he could identify for us his patterns prospectively as he uses them, so that we can see if he will have a 90% success rate? He could make a firm call publicly on this site identifying the pattern and on when we are to look at its success. He would declare that this is a pattern worth using, and let’s see by XYZ date/time how it turns out. Or would that mean too many entries of that sort on this site? I’m not in a position to note these but someone–maybe Tommy–could keep a running tabulation of his calls on a spreadsheet.
A successful trial could just be by luck–likewise an unsuccessful one. The trial might have to be repeated, perhaps more carefully. But it might put to rest this argument, which as you point out is by now recurrent in an empty sort of way.
LOL
Karl ever the deep thinker
93% accurate after they have been fully formed and then back tested maybe. But then the trade is over
i think he was referring to the HS pattern on the TSI, not price.
Aha. If so, your question about parameters he uses for TSI are key.
No…He is referring to the Price…we have had this discussion going for a while…its always been about price
There are websites where patterns are rated and Tommy has posted one or two which say 97% success rate…but this is misleading to say the least….What constitutes success ?
PS…. there is nothing magical about the TSI….it is just another Indicator like the RSI
they are all similar ….Tracking Momentum
Prediction cannot be generalized. Some asset class are more predictable than other and even that the degree of accuracy varies. within Au family, gold is the chameleon for its variables are transitional since it is not stocks.