Stumbled on this article from Richard Russell – not much has changed since the beginning of the last 10 yr bull market in PM’s.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/richard-russell-markets-1

Of particular interest:

“But what about the Fed’s all-out campaign to fight deflation? After all, a campaign to fight deflation is really a campaign to reinflate. Then why isn’t it setting off a steadily higher price for the yellow metal?

Ah, a fascinating question. And I link that question together with the huge surge in gold short sales as seen in the Commitment of Traders. Could the Fed have anything to with the big build-up in gold shorts (and increase in 18,000 gold shorts over the latest two weeks)?

Actually, the week ended November 12 saw a monster increase of 18,000 gold shorts on the part of the Commercials in the latest week, November 19, the Commercial’s short position was reduced by just 4,000. Evidently, the Commercials don’t want gold to decline, they just don’t want it to advance.

In the meantime large speculators have increased their gold long position. I personally will be most interested to see in the weeks ahead whether gold can continue to be held back. Or, let me put it another way — will the forces of the primary bull market in gold prove to be so powerful that they will overwhelm the Commercials and their efforts to “manage” the price of gold.

It’s these “little things” that make the markets so fascinating, at least from my standpoint. Personally, I always put my money on the power of the primary trend. I believe that the primary trend of gold is bullish, and I believe that in due time the primary trend of gold will fully express itself. Furthermore, the longer the primary trend is suppressed, the more powerful the underlying build-up. I liken the primary trend that is held back to a coiled spring. The energy is simply compressed more and more. Finally, when the spring breaks loose the results are both powerful and startling. Which is what I expect for gold somewhere ahead — maybe a few months ahead, maybe a year or so ahead.

This is why I have labeled the present period the initial phase or “the accumulation phase” of the gold bull market. It’s the phase where knowledgeable investors are accumulating gold and gold shares and where the public and the majority of funds continue to ignore gold and gold shares.”