Loading ...GDXJ
Poster De_vivre thinks I am cavalier and am to complacent about holding juniors here. He is concerned I am advocating holding on too long and losing great profits
here is what I am talking about
Presently GDXJ ( a proxy for my Juniors) is down 7.5% from the top = NO BIG DEAL
IF it gets to the 50DMA Mr De_vivre is using as his sell point it will be down 10%
Fine to sell there but I won’t…we have had several 10% drops
IF it gets to the UPTREND LINE that’s 17.5%..and we have also seen that before.
I would hedge below the 50dma and would sell below the trend line
Hope this clarifies
PS…My Spock Rocks are up 2% today on average
2 are up 20%
Hold on tight, Ladies and Gents. This is where the weak hands sell into the strong hands. Avi was saying there may well be a powerful wave iii on the horizon after this shakeout is over. Bullish support on GDX was $28.50.
Very helpful chart! Thanks for posting!!
and I’m suggesting selling on a close below the 50MA which has only happened once since January and buying back on a close above the 50MA. How much is risk is that in not participating? 1-2%? Instead you’re willing to risk 5-6% more drawdown and then sell and who knows when you’d climb back in….you never said.
What part of hedged do you not get ?
You are doing well and so am I
to each his own
I think it’s good to challenge each other and make sure we know our entries and exits…and yes, to each his own. The 50MA on the HUI daily is currently 259.90. If it looks like we are going to close below that level today I will be a seller of my miners at 3:59pm. That’s my exit. I will buy back on a close above the 50MA.
Take a look at the daily HUI chart from the end of May 2016 through the first week of June 2016 to see how that strategy would have worked out then.
I am unsure how you estimate the 1-2% risk of not participating. When the correction ended in early June, the snap back was dramatic. For instance, HGU.TO was up 22% on the day, and many of my individial stocks up over 10%. I estimate that I lost 11% by selling and attempting to get back in.
*this comment was in response to De_vivre.
so you’re saying you have no exit strategy?
See the post above for exit strategy
I was referring to Dave’s post.
and I will gladly take that risk that the day the GDX moves back to close over the 50MA that it doesn’t jump 10% in one day above where I sold it on the day it closed below the 50MA…LOL.
http://slopeofhope.com/2016/08/miners-breakdown-worsens.html
stop posting such nonsense. no one here cares about trendline breaks, or bearish engulfing candles. Why?…because we cant risk not being fully loaded in miners on the 6-sigma event day that the GDX jumps 10% in a single session to cross back up over the 50MA (where I’m a seller)!
Why the antagonism?
Good Question Dave and I am wondering this myself with Mr De_vivre
We are talking about protecting profits
we are all on the same page
There are different risk tolerances
someuse 50dma…some the trendline…some have mental stops…its ALL fun and games
Chill out Mr De-vivre.
GDXJ has only fallen 7% from its top
It has done this a half dozen times at least
Use your stop and get over it
Another presentation of the case for holding–or even filling up more right now–is at
http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/08/were-still-early-in-precious-metals.html
Right or wrong, it is brief and intelligent, providing a different set of arguments. I personally am on board, but it still may be the thing to do.
(If you peel back to http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca for today at least you get 2 interesting brief pieces on Orezone and one on apparent mismanagement of cash by big gold producers. A particularly good day for that website.)
I got off the train with a significant portion of my holdings back in June thinking I was going to get back on at better prices. As Dave said, the snap back was fast. I went from a good seat in a front car to barely catching the caboose at a higher price. By the time I figured out what was happening, it was to late. It ended up being about a $16,000. leg stretching lesson. So far Ive lost “every time” I strayed from Spocks plan.
Yes, that’s been my experience – am I the expert, do I have the experience? – While I determine how the reading best fits my situation/risk profile, it’s best to have their compass and rudder in all positions.
Here’s some good advice during times like these in the miners:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EY7lYRneHc
Great thread….it really does show the disparate philosophies and strategies across the landscape…personally with respect to PM and the miners…I stopped trading…just going to hold thru the bull…I am very comfortable with that…I will continue to trade the NatGas stuff…
Opitionals comment is, I suspect, calibrates closely with the majority, including me…got it at a smoking hot price, began to “trade” and ended up with a higher cost basis on some of my miners for no other reason then I was unable to sit still…
If u r a believer in the Rambus/Spock/Avi centric views of the beginning of a monster bull market…then just sit
Based on SKI Gold model. Since the 70s another melt up in gold miners from here has never ever happened…FYI. That is his model of course.
Yes, but you also must remember the xau:gold parabola
One more thing no one mentioned
De-vivre sold as HUI closed below the 50DMA
Nice trade. But now you owe the IRS …what is it 25% ?
Bang on Fully, That topic has been on my mind for sure. How do you trade in and out and beat the taxman. You prob don’t. I think of this passage as well.
A Crucial Conversation – “It’s a Bull Market”
Listening to the (repeated daily) advice of an old stager in the offices of Fullerton, it suddenly dawned on him why he was making less profit than he should. Whatever question the old fellow – known to everyone as Turkey although his real name was Partridge – was asked about the market, he would reply, “well, it’s a bull market.”
At first Livermore thought this was a mere platitude. Hearing “It’s a Bull Market” daily, he began thinking about it more. Then, listening to a conversation between Turkey and Elmer Harwood – a young trader – he realized that it was more than a platitude – it was the missing piece in his own education.
Elmer: “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”
Turkey: “Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!”
Elmer: “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, “I have just sold every share I owned!”
Turkey: “No! No! I can’t do that!”
Elmer: “Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”
Turkey: “You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.
Elmer: And didn’t that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”
Turkey: “It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”
Elmer: “Why not?”
Turkey: “Why, this is a bull market!” (The old fellow said it as though he had given a detailed explanation.)
Elmer: “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”
Turkey: “My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be? And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.”
Jesse Livermore realized that Turkey’s consistent message was that the big money was to be made not in trying to trade small moves on the tape but to catch the major trend.
“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.”
With this step in place, Jesse Livermore’s trading philosophy was complete.
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Makes me wonder….what is Mark doing at this juncture? I didn’t care for the clash of personal opinion but I do miss his take on things.
What is the SKI gold model?