Matterhorn update
Gold’s current action is simply part of the old Brexit breakout- Matterhorn top move. We got the breakout and now we have the back test. I don’t know of any way to assuredly predict how deep the BT has to go. Many methods have been postulated, but frankly I for one don’t know how to handicap it. But I would suspect 2 likely scenarios. #1 is we have seen enough and we can now go higher and resume the march higher. #2 is we need to base a bit more and perhaps make investors sweat a bit more first. That would be the shakeout down to the Blue dashed line around the 1282 level. That would of course hammer the HUI.
Myself I removed half my chips off the table back on July 6-8 after my proprietary oversold indicator triggered a top. Yesterday I bought back 1/3 of the positions I had sold. As for me I would like to see the full shakeout. I don’t like to trade these moves but this was an exception.
I have been a strong advocate of be right-sit tight for the entire move, and I still stand by it, however I received such a strong definitive signal that I had to partially get off my horse. It was such a strong trigger that I went back and checked and it was the most extreme overbought cluster of indicators in the last 15 years. Pretty incredible. But here is the thing, the fact that we have only pulled back slightly indicates to me that this move up is extraordinarily strong and once it resumes we could get a rapid surge to my original forecast of HUI 350. Possibly this is the set-up for that move. Maybe its a fuel stop along the way sucking in short sellers so it will be the fuel of short covering that will power the move from here. Just a thought.
Excellent analysis as usual. Thanks!
In your first chart, notice how steeply volume fell off on the latest leg down (after 1st week of July). There’s nervousness out there and it’s not to the downside IMO.
Yes, my comment on the HUI action before yesterday’s sell off is it was itching to rally. I would not be short this market at this point.
Good day BC.
Aye aye Capt, we heard ya right to sit tight after boarding at ground zero. Maybe we are now doing mid flight refueling before orbital??
Dr. MG Hey, Nice to hear from you. Yes, sitting tight is just fine. I just tried to be a little cute with the trend. That’s always risky though.
Ha…You two are old friends ?
Ha…
Welcome to Goldtent MatthewGoldman
Haven’t seen you since the early days at Chartology Forum
How about a chart ?
Y not except I don’t know how to on Android till I am back on my laptop
You said before it isn’t worth it to short a young bull rally till it takes s longer breather. The recent pull back to 1206 had shorts scrambling for cover when many expected a lower dip to 1170.
That’s correct. For those brave reckless souls who want to be short in a bull market one should wait until Phase I is over. Its my estimation that this comes around the HUI 350 level. But that’s just a working hypothesis. Once Phase I is over we could have anything from a secondary reaction of -25% lasting 3 weeks to 3 months to even a cyclical bear lasting up to a year. At this point we just don’t know. But that’s the first real shorting opportunity. Good luck with that by the way.
Indeed, that price is on my alarm. Having said that we’ll hear from the I told you so camp preachers this is a counter trend rally. That seems like good timing for sceptics to bale out on “what if it’s true”. The price action will tell. My hypothesis is that level is best timing to capitulate longs so the correction will likely be the initial violent corrective wave of this new bull. I might play along the bail out if I can identify a reasonable re-entry w/o premium.
I may play myself, trying to catch the downside. We will just have to see. Regarding the issue of a bull market. Yes, this has all the signs, sound and fury of a new bull and I think it is, however we still don’t actually know yet. The major A-B-C down pattern in a bear market which started in 2011 is still a possibility, although its not my model. But until we actually have a major secondary reaction, which we have not had yet and then go on to exceed previous highs we just can’t “officially” call it a bull market. But for sure I am riding it as it is currently.
See ‘the risk of gold reversal ‘ section in http://seekingalpha.com/article/3990387-gold-market-investors-wary#/alt3