Loading ...Chart from 7/1 – GDXJ
I was highlighting perceived risk after receiving so many comments about being militantly short at resistance levels and how risky it was to be anything but long during a parabolic gappy rise after gold almost exactly nailed my fib target of $1,371. I thought a 3rd wave was supposed to plough through resistance at those levels and the next stop for gold was $1,500+? Yes, I’m annoyed by some recent comments when I’m about the only one who isn’t even peddling a paid service. I feel like if you are any good at trading, you should get rich with your own trading capital and not subscription fees. My philosophy is building positions at good risk/reward levels, understanding structure, as well as support and resistance. If people are going to be more critical of me just because they are having a bad trading day then this is my last post here.
Hi Mark
H8ers gonna h8. For every shit post that idiots do, there are plenty of lurkers i’m sure which appreciate what you do and silently nod their heads and learn from you.
Appreciate the insight:)
I am a huge fan of your work and would encourage you to continue sharing your thoughts Mark. I always like to take notice of those that are correct more often than not and you are certainly that. Thanks for sharing š
Mark, I recall that you took another JDST position at 7.98. Did you average all the way down? Where do you see it going now? Now it’s 6.60. Good entry point?
Mark-as you well know there is a whole lot of emotion that is almost endemic in this sector. And with emotion comes opinion some of which smack of criticism. But that’s the nature of this sector and the emotion in all of us. Some have an easier time in separating themselves from the emotion. Some not so much. From my reading of the comments, they appear to be opinions albeit sometimes highly charged. I’m sure you will have some converts today:). You, better than most, can appreciate when it’s lonely you may be onto something. When the opinions turn into criticism, you know you’re really onto something especially with your skill set. It’s a great barometer. You mentioned that your self in reverse when too many were in line with your thinking and you felt your analysis may have been off. Well, now you experienced just the opposite an look what happened. You are one of the better traders here no doubt. Anyone that good is bound to invite some detractors. Nonetheless, even they, I’m sure, appreciate your posts as do I. You do whatever makes you comfortable.
Keep them coming Mark. Don’t let the naysayers get to you. Count me in as a fan.
Here’s my take on it….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=W&b=9&g=5&id=p28684165343&a=468396488&r=1469035273894&cmd=print
Mark, your TA skills are excellent so my recommendation is to continue the postings as I definitely study it.
My NUGT target zone for the wolfe wave is between $40-$60…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p13025718405&a=463401641&listNum=15
Notice the red line is at support and corresponds to the channel target.
The IHS pattern is just icing on the cake.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=W&b=9&g=5&id=p28684165343&a=468396488&r=1469037421136&cmd=print
Tommy, I think it will break your channel line and then back test it from below for few weeks and then may hit my target. these wolfewaves usually tend to break the trend line before switching direction. I have seen this recently on the silver wolfewave that I posted.
Krystar, you should keep us posted on your Wolfe Wave projection for NUGT. Not familiar at all with them but if it plays out it would be a hell of a drop.
Frankly, your input is the highlight of this forum as far as I’m concerned. I’m sure the majority would concur. There is a lack of respect shown on occasions towards posters who offer different perspectives and I can understand your frustration when your analysis draws an unfitting response from some members.
Please recognize the situation for what it is and continue to post for the benefit of members who are still interested in learning and highly value your contribution
Thanks for all your posts Mark. You are an awesome trader!
Mark, Keep up the good work.
I enjoy your posts too, Mark. However, I can’t recall anyone talking trash to you on this thread and I’ve read most of the comments. Anyway, keep up the good work.
Mark …you are one of the best Chartists here…I am not trying to dis you with my comments…You know how many times I asked you to return to Goldtent by popular demand.
However
I am pointing out that Shorting a bull market is NOT for everybody especially with 3X etfs
Your original call for a GDXJ top was 43. which was about $10 in JDST. How many could have had conviction and held on
and averaged down to almost half this entry point ? Not many I am sure. Those who did hold on are having a great day
today as JDST is 6.60 now.
There are a lot of novice traders lurking here. I hear from them all the time via email
I always tell them you are a good and experienced trader but caution them on these “kamikaze” trades
I am sure even you had some major frustration with this position. I am sure you can make it work out but most would have bailed by now
Most would say entry at $10 all in at 9 then averaging down to 6 is not a good trade no matter if JDST gets back to 9-10 eventually.
Having said all this. You are a far better chartist and trader than I . Just know very few can do these trades .
RespectFully
I’ve got to agree with Fully. I do enjoy your posts, but on June 30th you stated:
“Yes, I sold the last of my longs into the latest gap up fractionally below what I believe to be the peak and Iām slightly underwater on my short positions (avg JDST cost is $8.98).”
I think Fully is right: trading these 3xers is fraught with danger.
I have a few insights and comments about this discussion. No time now however. I will try to make a separate post tomorrow, in the meantime everyone keep posting!
FGC:
At no-time did I read Mark touting his positions as presently “in-the-money” until they where (example DGAZ trade). The present ‘break’ he predicted early and often, but it has now occurred! Now asking someone “did you average down or not” or maybe “what is your average cost now” might or might not get a response (probably wouldn’t from me!!!). Mark, however, was gracious enough to answer directly and with specific numbers, as we moved forward – again I never read him touting his positions, in fact, there were times when I expected him to capitulate and he did not – good for him.
Now if this correction is shallow and ends tomorrow, I would bet Mark would “lick his wounds” and move forward with a new plan. If however, this correction deepens and presents itself as an intermediate degree (when ALL are looking shallow right now), who or whom will have egg on there faces.
Say it out loud FGC – “I am a GOLDBUG!” You are reverting back to a one sided view, much better to keep it balanced (like my friend Gary Tanashian, who you ran out of here a while back) or at least keep some humility, AKA Rambus
Patty
Gary Tanashian left …my bad…not because of a disagreement but because I got hot about him promoting 321 gold
I am a GOLDBUG.
But I made a lot more $s shorting than I have being long here.
I see a Bull Market here…sue me.
fgc,
im not sure this needed to be posted. Mark was kind enough to share his trade and what he saw in the charts.. the charts you were posting were essentially showing this as a half way point or to the moon chart. I dont know where this pull back leads, im not sure anyone does, but my charts were showing to exit long positions yesterday and were suspiciously pointing to a correction even before yesterday..you saw the chart i posted yesterday… did you exit?.. probably not, there is more than one side to a trade.. not everyone can be right; its important to keep an open mind… maybe this correction is short lived.. but happens if its not?
I am in 40+ Spock Rocks..we don’t exit.
I don’t use Short Stacks calls as my reason to exit ….That was a nice call though
I have been hedged for a few weeks though to protect some great gains. ( been losing on the insurance until now
Lifted the HGD and went to HZD ( silver ) at the close.
Fgc,
the continued posts on decay in the 3xers can be taken from the aspect to belittle Marks trades or posts .. this is where my problem with your posts lie. I personnally appreciate mark posting this stuff and he had me looking at my charts differently than to the moon…. they had me looking with caution.
I dont know, i just wish you would tone it down some.
Count me in the category that Fullys 3X post are a good idea and in fact needed. These are toxic vehicles I recommend avoiding them. Friends don’t let friends commit suicide
Mark,
This is my first post but I have been lurking here for over a year. Your posts are among the very best on this website which is the very best on the internet. When you were absent from posting I surely missed your charts and insight. I value your posts tremendously and find you to be among the most accurate posters who in addition is very gracious to posts entries,,,… So, please keep on posting and take solace in the fact that although not perfect you are close enough to have the respect of many.
Thank You Mark!!!
http://charts.dacharts.net/2016-07-19/d2357.png
I took this snap shot yesterday and posted this at another forum.. it confirmed an exit out of long positions yesterday.. there were warnings before this with the more hypersensitive indicators; but it was clear yesterday that all positions should be exited.
Mark, i hope you continue to post. Im not sure why some are so critical of ones charts. I wonder how many did not heed the warning on the chart i posted yesterday. In reality, the chart was giving warnings well before yesterday; but lacked the confirmation.. but the warning was there.
Hi Mark,
Your views are always valuable, it is always better to have two sides view and make decision.. how you trade with 1x,2x or 3x vehicles is individual choice..
I think an important point to make is Mark continued to post material supporting his thesis in the time after his first bearish/correction calls. The fact Mark stayed the trade is because price action remained just inside his parameters. Interesting to watch the debate take place here on Goldtent.
Mark, I find your TA input useful, and would like to see you stay. That said, I think it’s your “in your face” taunts that rub some people the wrong way. Just saying…
This is exactly correct. I will try to put together a thoughtful post tomorrow on this , but for now understand the catalyst for all of this discourse has been due to taking the perspective that because it was a minority position it made it a superior smarter position and if one was on the other side of the trade it was because he was not savvy.
I know that comes across brash, but that is how it was communicated.
The only poster on here whose charts I have appreciated more than FGC’s is Mark. I echo everyone else’s appreciation of Mark’s generous sharing of his charts. Clearly Mark is among the very best of the best of traders. However, Mark, I am surprised that you are reading FGC’s comments as an attack. That is not how I read Fully’s comments at all. I think Fully’s comments were entirely fair. I follow all the posts on here and no-one meanly criticized your long JDST @$9 a few weeks ago. However, when you basically said “told you so” today, then FGC was justified to politely point out what he did. To read that as an attack or a lack of appreciation for your posting and charts in general seems quite disingenuous to me. From my perspective, Fully has been nothing but friendly and appreciative toward you (as he and all of us should be.)
That is a very thin skinned interpretation and seems like you are projecting to me. I would rather have someone put a little ego into their posts than some bland android-like missive. Especially if they have a good track record like Mark.
You come across as someone who doesn’t like to be outsmarted. Thus, you are projecting your insecurities onto someone else. Reread what you just wrote and see if it doesn’t make more sense to you.
People who insist on political correctness make me want to barf sometimes.
Mark was right and you come across as someone who feels they had their thunder stole from them. Get over it.
Tommy, I’m not sure how you got that – I didn’t have any other people in mind than the two I mentioned in my comment. Regarding thin-skinned – perhaps your own reaction is more telling than anything you imagine I wrote.
Hochschild, I was replying to Plunger not to you. Not sure how you got that impression. If I was talking to you I would have replied to you like I am now. Get it?
Well done Tommy, you’ve stumped me! You’re clearly more clever than me.
@Tommy. Plunger called a top last week I believe. He posted that he sold shares and was waiting for a pullback. He got it correct. Mark was correct but did he make any money? He bought DUST/JDST too early and with 3X ETF’s timing is everything. Maybe he will make a ton of dough holding DUST, maybe not. I doubt he has made anything of significance yet though.
Mark scored a touchdown, spiked the ball and started doing his celebration dance…..Fully then pointed to the scoreboard…No big deal.
PS Sentiment is at an extreme low right now. Sure feels like it:
http://kingworldnews.com/alert-sentimentrader-just-issued-an-extremely-important-update-on-the-gold-market/
I am aware of all that. I think Plungers call came after Marks though.
Maybe Mark was a little early, maybe not. I don’t know or care. The point is he stuck his neck out before anyone else I’m thinking.
It was a heads up to others as long as you took it in the right vein. Screw the ego talk crap.
Also, if Fully is trying to engender a site that people feel comfortable posting on, they shouldn’t have to put up petty criticism. Who needs it.
Otherwise, this place will turn into a ghost town soon. Just sayin.
I appreciate your posts, Mark! There are probably a lot of people like me who enjoy reading people’s posts but don’t post much themselves.
longtime lurker at goldtent
longtime member at rambus
there are a lot of great ta analysts here
but most of them hive big egos
goes with the territory I suppose
that along with the emotionally charged market (gold) covered here
makes for fireworks sometimes
the one analyst I most respect is rambus.
i have never seen him attack another’s position nor even actually pay attention to others opinion
he does his work in quiet dignity . consistently excellent and always with a palpable humble undertone
a humble guru. that’s for me.
good luck to all. enjoy all the posts and even the occasional brouhaha.
everybody relax.
fool’s gold
Another good point putting his finger on it. The root of the problem is involving ones ego in his trade. There is a lot of this going on here. I am not exempt, but I do actively try to guard against it. I am not always successful, but we must keep trying.
The market is enough to compete against. We don’t need to compete against each other.
I find it refreshing that someone is so certain of their diagnosis that they are willing to put their ego on the line.
If Babe Ruth hadn’t pointed to center field before he hit it out of the park, there would be no story to tell. The only ones in the park who felt wronged were the guys on the other team and no one remembers who they were, do they?
For some of us this is viewed as a competition whether you like it or not. Competition can make you better or bitter. Take your pick.
Competition is why Mark is probably here in the first place. He views bad market calls,opinions, and sentiment as something to be scorned and ridiculed, and rightly so. If you really think he is here just to impart to others his good strategies, you need to get a clue.
Mark, I ALWAYS find your posts insightful and usually they have me checking my assumptions no matter what my present positions are. And I always learn something – you are a great teacher!
Thank You for all,
Patty
plus 1, had me eyeing my charts that for sure.
Like others, I enjoy your posts, Mark, and have learnt from you as well as several others. I’m not sure why you would want to leave this board, however, just because of different opinions. If I may, there is quite a bit of emotion in your post and I wonder what or who has got to you.
Either way, we’re all here to learn and hopefully earn money for ourselves and our families and the board would be considerably poorer without you.
Mark I appreciate all perspectives and appreciate your posts. I never read anyone bashing you but then again I don’t read all the comments.
Allow me the following observations Mark…I heard about and started reading the tent thru FGC, who mentioned u (and others a number of times) on the TraderDan thread….I enjoy your takes on trades, vision on chart movements and overall market knowledge…however I really especially appreciate your willingness to share your views, it is neither necessary nor expected. To want to help/guide others in this landscape is very generous of you….It is solely up to you with respect to future postings, but I for one would miss them.
Anyone who trades off a website, subscribed or otherwise does so at their choice and sometimes peril…this is not sports betting a favorite team….it is serious business with serious repercussions….factor whatever advise u want into your decision and strategy, but a loss is a you problem, not the posters…
Mark,
To be honest, I don’t think your bashing of those with websites is appropriate. As you noted, I was looking at us being in a 3rd wave and looking higher. And, we went a lot higher than when you turned bearish on us. And, on our website, we got the gains on those higher moves. But, when the market gave us the set up for this decline yesterday, I joined that trade as well.
Yet, you make it seem that those of us who charge for our analysis are doing so wrongfully. I can assure you that my members were quite well prepared for this potential decline today, as I had sent out Alerts on the set up and said I was going short starting yesterday morning.
Again, I could be wrong, but I think your post was a little out of line, but I do understand that you somehow feel vindicated that the market did provide a pullback, although from higher levels than when you exited. So, the chest thumping is understandable.
Good luck in your endeavors.
In Mark’s defense, anybody who charges for their advice and give bad advice is fair game.
Adjectives (chest thumping?), can be clever but are often unecessary and obfuscate the point being made (assuming it’s not ‘personal’). I did not see that Mark was attacking sub services but pointing out that he offers his analysis and follow up not for personal gain and prefers the DIY approach – simple enough.
Looking forward to your next article.
Hope you stick around Mark.
i am on avis sub posts.i confirm him going a lotto trade on gdx going down.he and others in the room followed .
im a members of dans site.. he just gives technical charts combined with some things that you are not probably aware.. he was giving indications of weakness well before you posted.. great call on the calling the top in your service..though even simple indicators called that.. no need for a paid service.
ps.. dans site is worth every penny, its the only site i can that about.
OH NO! Please don’t leave! You have so much to offer and I value every word of it….
Well we just set the record for most comments on one post
and its still going
I agree with Plunger…there is a lot going on here and a lot to be learned form this situation if we can open our minds.
I hope I am wrong but I suspect Mark is done here. If so I wish him nothing but the best . We shared a common goal .
Looking at the PM market with unbiased eyes. That’s tough to do in such an emotional market . But all in all we do
pretty well . Maybe tomorrow we can get a fresh start.
you just hate someone attacking paid subscriptions.. bias opinion and mark attacked because of it.
Mark, you leaving would be a huge loss for the goldtent community, I would like to see you stay but you need to do what is best for yourself. There never seemed to be a problem on the site when you posted gold was consolidating and getting ready to rally?
Much about ego here, and not on marks part. It seems this has transcended into an argument about 3xers not being the avenue to trade rather than the point mark was making.. that he saw a structure in the charts that indicated a coming correction, now the point has been restructured not that mark was incorrect.. but that 3xers was not the way to do the trade; i dont think that was the point mark was trying to make; but others made it the point.. and a needless point that most have learned long before.
come on mark,you know your calls worked well….dont get upset bro,we held on you sold/you are the clean winner.stay good.
I dont know what this forum is turning into.. since when can one not give an opposing opinion without the potential of future ridicule even if proven right in the future.. why post here… seems meaningless.
Wow, somebody is over-sensitive. If anything, I have seen great respect directed towards Mark, and have not seen this ciritism he is complaining about.
Good day Mark,
Your posts are remarkable. Please ignore those who appreciate your work less.
I have been following several regular posters here and yours are among those bests that I read/think more between the lines to sharpen my skills while I sit on my stack.
At the risk of stating the obvious, this is a bull market. Those who got in early and hold or those that get in now and hold will make a lot of money. Those that trade in and out will, in all likelihood
be right about 50% of the time ( sort of like flipping a coin ) and will make a whole lot less money than those that buy and ride the bull without getting thrown off. Of course some fabulous traders will outperform but the odds are slim that rare person is any of us. Let’s don’t kid ourselves. Any short term trader/timers here up 200%+ YTD ? If so, hats off to you. Good luck to everyone here however they play it.
Hi Mark,
I just registered here from being a lurker to show my support for you and your honest and intelligently clear opinions.You seem to be able to cut through the hype and tell it like it is.
Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow for sure but you definitely help me make reasonable decisions.
I wanted to add my name to the list of those who want you to stay.
Music