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While I thought the bullish crossover was a great risk/reward long opportunity 7 months ago, and prompted me to get very long oil and PMs, I’m not now watching the blue line closely for a backtest. If prices cant punch through, the whole commodities complex could be headed for a double bottom. I’m sure that would shock many people.
This looks like it may be correcting down to me too.
Reasonable scenario…
But surely begs question whether Gold is acting as commodity or money
I was reading armstrong private blog and he is suggesting that we may be in chop mode until feb of next year…
(to MA) – Yes, and I’m sure world NIRP will be frozen at $13trillion until then.
This is tricky because of the large oil weighting in this index. The EW count I’m following on this says oil falls to low 40’s then and makes a final high at 62 before a huge collapse ($15). This suggests you might see what looks like a successful retest of resistance followed by a false break out above the resistance line then a move back below resistance. OTOH I think agriculture is a completely different proposition and is a long term hold