Loading ...Re: ! YIKES ! Plunger analog – comments welcome. Potential DB targets?
Here is FGC’s YIKES chart. Let’s see if I have this correctly:
First move of bear market: stage 1+ early stage 2 to after the Point Of Recongition
= $125 to $20 = -80% roughly, actually more but let’s be conservative. I think Plunger takes the first % move from the first bear market rally though which would probably be from $100 to 20 and that is -80% anyway.
If Stage 3 starts at $25, -80% takes it to $5.
If I am being too mean and Stage 3 starts at $50 or $35, then target would be $10 or $7.
It would be better to see that on a log chart though. If one uses a linear chart for measured moves then the theoretical target is a lot below zero.
Let’s clear a few things up
Stages are assigned according to the Weinstein method and their are 4
Phases are according to the work of Robert Rhea and there are 3 in a bull and bear market. They are psychological phases, what I have done is assign consistent chart patterns to these psychological phases
So the H&S is phase I once it broke the NL it became phase II which is the longest phase and it lasted until jan 2016. The break below the support line you show would be the phase III annihilation phase.
Regarding Weinstein stages, once we broke the H&S NL in 2008 it became state 4 and its still in stage 4
Now you got it!
The POR is pretty close and I need to see the volume to really make the determination but I would think it came up a bit above where we see the gap
Cheers, I will call them phase i ii and iii next time!! :-).
Italian banks are in big trouble. The fear is that there will be a domino effect and many of the weaker banking systems in other countries will follow them down. It could get ugly pretty quickly.
We have been looking for 9-12 as a target for quite a long time.