Loading ...Yes, I blew this last move!….but….
Amazingly it looks like we are going to retest the same resistance line again in an exhaustion sequence structure similar to what I’m showing in red. If I were still long I couldn’t imagine not selling into this strength with this sort of underlying structure. And yes, I will be buying JDST and DUST on a tag to the line hopefully at the close. Maybe now I’m finally crazy? 😉
Note: It’s looking like we don’t tag it today so I’m guessing on Tuesday we will gap up to tag the line and then reverse with a black candle just like the last two times….we will see.
If you take a look at intraday JNUG to see what the micro structure of this move looks like heading into resistance on the GDX daily, you can see it doesn’t have much wiggle room. Bought more JDST and DUST into the close but have some dry powder in case we get that gap up Tues morning.
That line could be tested many times. It happens in a bull run.
Oh I agree….I’m just going to keep buying back in at lower prices is all.
Totally agree but I’m not willing to possibly give up 20-30% gains along the way. We all decide our risk tolerance.
Just want to say it was you and Spock that woke me up to this PM bull run in February after the long angst and lethargy of the bear market. I kept looking for a sign of real bottom because I did not want to miss it. You and Spock convinced me that I was witnessing it.
Thanks for checking in Mark
There are Not many who have traded in and out and done very will compared to the Hold Crowd
I respect your style of selling resistance and buying support…only problem is this is a once in a decade type move
Hard to expect that !
Me ? I am very happy to have been in Spock Rocks early …I have been hedging on and off for 4 months now with HGD
Lost 15% playing this game
Spock and Plunger have told us to sit tight…but I can’t
Good Luck next week
These things are taking no prisoners !
You don’t have to answer but did you sell the JDST/DUST along the way or just averaging down ?
Fully….you state “only problem is this is a once in a decade type move” as if that is an undeniable matter of fact. I happen to agree the set up is great on the weekly and monthly charts but so are many others we’ve seen over the years in the stock market. Remember as recently as last August when we had the mini crash and all the experts were pointing the chart similarities for the S&P in 2000 and 2008 declaring we are heading now to lower lows! Guys like Pug pointed to his EW charts which were undeniable and folks like Tim Wood pointed to Dow Theory saying he had zero doubt the move was underway. It was a great set up…yes, yet these experts were all wrong! The markets like to tease us sometimes with charts that rhyme to lull us into a false sense of security that we are participating in a virtually risk-free trade.
I am going to continue to treat the underlying intermediate trend as bullish but when a move hits my predefined exits I’m going to sell and look at the risk/reward for entering short as well. Until today I have haven’t suffered being underwater on any of my trades (in both directions) since January. Linda Raschke writes in her books that traders who have clearly defined exits when they enter a trade tend to do better than traders who simply hold and hope that they will see the appropriate exit when they get there.
It’s funny….back in December when I cited bullish structure in gold and positive divergences in miners, particularly in the A/D line as factors for scaling in long many didn’t agree with me but no one said things you’re fighting the trend (which was way more established than the current one), playing with fire, being militant, beinf in denial or pissing in the wind. To me these characterizations are based on bias while I’m truly just reading the charts the way I always do and not counting on the market “supposed to be doing” anything. Remember supporta nd resistance levels are not lines but zones.
I enjoy the reasoning Mark. Thanks.
Mark …I believe what I wrote “the only problem is this is a once in a decade type move” IS an undeniable matter of fact
Last time HUI moved off a Bottom up 160% in less than 6 months was a decade ago ( well 8 years to be exact )but it was in the previous decade.
160% in 6 months is a rare event in any “Unleveraged” market .
As I say…I have been hedging along the way up and this Insurance has proved very expensive.
This is no run of the mill move in the PM Stocks.
You caught the huge majority of this move like no one else , and now you are positioned to catch a correction
Good Trading
Just because it did it the last time is no guarantee it does it again. Why would you think that a past analogy creates future fact? Again, I agree….I’m in the bullish camp until the picture changes but I don’t think any future move is a fact based on past performance.
I’ve averaged down on my JDST and DUST.
Thanks Mark,
I echo North & Fully’s comments, and others made in your support yesterday.
This recent joust between you and the other Sirs at the Tent gave me more cognitive dissonance than the market action itself.
Cheers for keeping us on our toes.
Mr T trade…. PAIN