Loading ...Yes, I’ve turned bearish on the miners
As mentioned on a comment to Graddhy’s recent post, I really don’t like how many charts are shaping up right now and I’m trying to be as objective as possible. For now I’m full-on bearish and positioned accordingly. I’m not going to show all my supporting charts but I am providing a version of my GDXJ chart posted the other day. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to retrace all of the miner gains since the March consolidation from here. Ironically this would make Savage right but at the wrong time…..ha….he’s completely in the bullish camp now at what I believe is EXACTLY the wrong time. Yet, another piece of outstanding evidence.
Those gaps are like magnets begging to be filled.
i repeat- the gdxj chart you are using is different than gdx hui xau
gdxj is at the tline–all others have broken out
My analysis on the GDX doesn’t take the exact form as GDXJ but shows huge resistance confluence at $27 and a possibly very ugly structure taking hold. I’m not showing all my charts and listen, this is just one man’s opinion….so take it for what it is….an educated guess.
I see downside room for GDXJ to around 33 as that is where the neckline is for GDXJ´s inverse h&s, which it BT absolutely perfectly:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=372544
Nice chart. Would be very interesting to see your other ones.
See a beautiful wolfe wave on your chart with the PO at this weeks high. Maybe that was what you saw when you were buying NUGT.
I am recently noticing how many BIG name investors are coming out and buying the PM market now which has been feeling more and more like a contrary indicator…it’s also interesting how similar the weekly charts for HUI, GDX, GDXJ are…it’s not as though the juniors have been leading the parade–not at all …and the other thing I notice is the similarity between those 3 charts and the chart for $GOLD in Aug and Sept 2011 when gold couldn’t make another higher high and then “down she went”….it was all there to see in 2011 : gold’s inability to continue making higher highs ….gold running out of momentum….if only I had looked and not been in denial and mad at Armstrong for saying “mean” things about my favorite investment idea
Here is what Marty was saying in June 2011.
http://i.imgur.com/DhBlwRp.jpg
“We should see gold at $5,000+ by the end of 2015”
MIke, thank you for that blast from the past….maybe that was why I was so bullish and then when MA switched to bearish –in 2013? …don’t remember but your link is certainly an eye opener…what happened to throw his prediction of $5000 by the end of 2015 and he is as exasperated with investors today as he was when he wrote the quote you sent me…he’s always exasperated with us but boy was he wrong about that call!!!!!
Maybe it was angst from being stuck in a 6×6 cell?
On the other hand it must have also meant the he completely missed the bull market in the US dollar 2008-2016 (or 2011-2015 or whatever).
I think that’s a good observation Carolyn. In the GDX I’m seeing a possibly bearish structure take hold which may have seen a swing high inked in yesterday. OBV patterns are now suggesting imminent trend change and overhead resistance is coming in from many perspectives in many timeframes. On my gold charts it is now looking like I had misread what was support and what resistance….I don’t like that way gold prices seem quite capped at current levels. This is not looking like an impulsive breakthrough in gold prices, it’s looking more like a an oversold snapback and consolidation just below resistance. In my experience, we need an impulsive breakthrough of resistance….prices don’t typically just churn higher through resistance. Again, I’m going to keep my charts to myself for most part right now.
well, when you have price discovery for gold in a paper market where there is no limit to how much paper gold can be sold in a day then it’s no wonder the price gets capped—it couldn’t get past 1275+/- for weeks in early May and now it feels like we are back there–churning around getting nowhere…until price discovery is set in a physical marketplace then all charts are wonky and misleading and manipulation is easily carried out by those that most benefit by it…
1-2-3-4-5 also looks like an expanding top or megaphone. Different targets but still would be bearish. Gold has a similar formation at a slightly earlier stage perhaps.
http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Gold.png
Mark, your call from Dec 17 was right on at the bottom
Wasn’t it just? Fantastic call, right at the low and pretty contrarian at that.
Mark, One thing I have posted on and am watching is how the Miner and Gold Cycles have diverged. The last two time the Miners sold off hard was in Aug 2015 and Jan 2016 during the Stock Market’s Waterfall declines. Silver also tanked then and only Gold went up. Not saying this is going to happen again but I am expecting the next Intermediate Cycle low in Stocks in the late June to early/mid July timeframe.
I take the TRIX negative divergence very seriously on the GDX daily.
I am looking at Fresnillo today, 8th bullish up candle out of 9. Nearly 9 in a row actually, the 5th one in the row of 98 was flat, a dragonfly, though just coloured red on stockcharts because it closed below the previous day’s low.
How long do you think this thing will keep pushing up? Until Brexit perhaps?
i.e. until Brexit voting day, 23 June?
Hey Mark, my sell signals just came through on GDX and GDXJ, lets see how far they drop.