Just saying – if history is any guide, then June/July should buck traditional seasonal behavior and see pm stocks rally even higher.

To wit, during 1996 pm stocks started a five year bear market which destroyed valuations – with losses of about 74%.  That bear ended with a breakout above trendline resistance at the beginning of 2002, after which $HUI went on a 6-month tear (including the breakout month) – rising about 227% from the breakout point (not the bottom).

Similarly, beginning in 2011, pm stocks suffered through an over 4-year bear market, seeing pm stock values plummet 85%, which ended at the beginning of this year, with the $HUI breaking out above trendline resistance at about the $150 level.

You see where I’m going here – similar time frame, similar losses, why not similar “reaction”?  An “echo” reaction similar to the 2002 breakout rally would equate to $HUI at approximately $340 before the end of July.

Of course – there is no reason pm stocks have to react today exactly like they did in 2002 and continue moving higher!  In fact, this May was a down month and the 2002 breakout rally experienced no pause at all on the upswing.  So it already won’t be “exactly like” – but then anything similar percentage-wise would be just fine.   🙂  Again – just saying!

HUI Echo