Loading ...Gurus Are Befuddled
Clearly these guys have absolutely no clue what’s going on here. Their troops are growing restless…it’s going up, then down…or wait still down really hard until July then up strong…or wait, let’s see what happens Monday….or ummmmm….
On May 27th MA published this:
This is looking like what can only be described as an “Epic fail” on his part. How could the man with the flawless model not know to be buying at $1,206 instead of insisting hitting that level means we are en route to sub-$1000??????
Mark, You da Man! Great charts and calls last week. My own chart and cycle work told me a low was near but you posts helped build up my own confidence to add to my positions aggressively.
What are you thoughts on all the gaps we saw on Friday action? Breakaway gaps or do they get filled on a backtest?
Too much of a guess to say Surf but look how much money you would have missed out on if you had waited for the January gaps to fill. I think patience will be more profitable here than overtrading your positions.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nugt
I think this guy best articulates the sentiments (i.e. turmoil) of Savage’s subscribers right now. Daummer posed the question: “Hey Gary, I’m a bit confused. You had stated with strong conviction that you expected a rather brutal “bloodbath” type decline of gold (and the miners) into the ICL which you emphasized would also be the yearly cycle low, probably end of June/beg July. You also predicted that gold would bounce quite convincingly (which it clearly did today) and get everyone frothing thinking the rally that began in January is to immediately resume. We are clearly seeing this kind of reaction, exactly as you predicted, so I’m confused as to why you are now sounding “iffy” on your own call. Personally I do not think people ever got bearish enough on gold or the miners to signal a bottom and fuel a long rally from this point. Guess I just think you should stand by your call since you rather “pounded the table” on it in a number of videos and posts.”
“Personally I do not think people ever got bearish enough on gold or the miners to signal a bottom and fuel a long rally from this point.”
This guy like so many other bugs is (still) looking for that PM selloff crecendo moment that hasn’t come and seems to still believe (with diminishing confidence) it will happen – which incidently is more fuel for the PM bull.
The statement above is exactly why I think so many gold bugs are still on the sidelines – they don’t see (what my understanding is) that the primary reason for the ’11-’15 PM bear was the Market belief (temporary acceptance) that Central Bank efforts to revive the US/world economy was ‘WORKING’. As it becomes gradually APPARENT that these efforts are failing – that is what is driving the current PM revival – gold is less commodity and more world currency. The CB failure curve (evidenced by the near 2 yr cresting of the last mkt standing SPX) will NOT culminate in a ‘CB-efforts-are-a-success’ watershed moment (spiking PM’s down) but quite the opposite – ‘CB efforts are failing’ culiminating in sudden moves to the upside for PM’s. I am first to admit in Aug-Nov 2015 as a crushed & disheartened PM bull (sold it all), I believed in the 3rd phase down rational (CB efforts continued success), however as soon as GOLD sentiment started to react as though CB efforts were failing (specifically Japan NIRP) and to the second S&P selloff in Dec ’15 and then gold spot busted to a new high, that was my clue that FAITH in CB efforts was waning globally and NOW (I was Johnny come a bit lately March 2016) was the time to become an all-in PM bull. Simple fact CENTRAL BANKS OWN MARKETS and the direction they take up or down – CB success as evidenced in econ/mkt stability = PM’s down, CB failure = PM’s up – although it takes years for CB effort results to be known which can be VERY painful for PM bulls, it’s really quite simple.
I think there are elements to Armstrong’s analysis that are correct, but even timing has gotten away from him.
A few explanations from his viewpoint:
1. This bull will be confirmed on a yearly basis when Gold/Silver breaks (and stays) above the 2015 highs. This is huge resistance.
2. His view is when Europe/Euro implodes, the dollar will spike and send gold reeling. (IMO This narrative may be faulty as certainly many have sniffed out gold as a safe haven. We are not “waiting” for it to be a safe haven, it is already here.)
3. MA is looking for a gold/silver ratio spike? Can he get it? Yes, but not by gold tanking. Accepting a recession in the US, could put a dent in silver, but you would never know it by Friday’s reaction, so we need to watch. So could silver drop along with a correction in the stock market before it breaks out? I think yes.)
4. MA is looking for an “alignment” of markets, that we may or may not get: Bonds peaking with gold and stock markets bottoming then rising together. (IMO this does not seem to be what is occurring.)
5. MA is a wildly successful trader. He has made Billions and Billions. He trades from the top down, yearly then quarterly etc. Most of us do not seem to do that. His views are from these levels.
6. MA believes that only a RISING dollar will create the SDC (otherwise a falling dollar helps corporate profits in the US.) If the Feds raises rates again it will create turmoil in the foreign markets. June/July Fed and Brexit could be turning points. IMO we have not seen the turmoil that could be caused here so the 2nd half will surely be a wild one.
7. MA is not looking for gold to BO above 1305-7 till 2017.
8. And lastly, this: there is GREAT significance placed on the fact that in 2011 Silver peaked in April and Gold peaked in Aug. This divergence is unlike the 1980 peak in gold/silver that were simultaneous. He talks about how we could see the mirror image of this in terms of bottoming. The “why” of why this is important, I do not know. Still, IMO silver may be the wild card here. But it does appear that Dec was THE low. He was incredibly accurate on that but has not accepted his own forecast to date. In his career this is highly unusual, hence it is thought provoking. He will stay on the fence until the 2015 highs are broken I believe. He recently even stated “we must not ignore the Dec lows…”
Buying gold and buying the miners are two different animals, especially in a new bull. He does not talk about the miners specifically, and seemingly assumes the miners will follow gold down to the bottom. Technically that does not appear to be the case, but more consolidation may be in order for this summer. Again, I will point to Silver. May’s low was 15.91. June has already breached that low (so far) at 15.83. Is this an early warning of what may come from the SDC?
All too hard. Too many words. Too many if this then that.
For god sake, have a look at a simple chart. its all there. See my XGD Renko post.
Why do these people want to make everything so complex. I guess they make it complex, so they can sell bullshit.
Thanks Athena…good to hear from you…I thought that Socrates said that IF gold couldn’t
achieve 1308 by April 1 (or something similar to that) then the Dec lows may not in fact be THE lows…Armstrong has said time and time again that what he has to say is just opinion like everyone else–it is Socrates that isn’t stating opinions….Socrates is coming up with these gold price targets by certain dates to determine whether or not gold is in a new bull market OR just a reaction rally…as far as Socrates is concerned gold isn’t meeting the minimum requirements required to call this a new bull market -it’s black and white as far as the computer is concerned: if gold hasn’t been able to achieve certain price targets by certain specified dates then gold is NOT in a new bull market….so all those who disparage the work of Socrates and say it is all nonsense and Hocus-Pocus and claim Armstrong to be a fool will get a chance, and soon, to see if they were right or whether Socrates was right. I’ve got my hackles up, no doubt about it, with all the trashing and belittling of Armstrong and Socrates’work.
Socrates is a F#$%^&ing Robot Carolyn…His Views are OPINION too…he was Programmed by a HUMAN …a fallible HUMAN…..he/ it has NO flexibility .
Armstrong’s work is nothing more than the simplest of simple TA…IF we take out last years Highs we are in a Bull
IF we take out last years low we are in a bear…if we do neither we are in limbo
wtf is that ? DUH !!….. Have you made any money with Socrates ?
IF you would have ignored this ridiculous abomination and just went with Rambus Mark Spock Plunger and others you would have made a ton. But Socrates spooked you out of a 100% full mine position back in January
I can’t understand your allegiance to a freaking robot . Nobody KNOWS for sure if this is a new Bull market…but it sure looks and feels like one and those who believe in it are making a LOT of money…Those spooked by Marty and his Pet Project are making NADA and getting Ulcers to boot.
That was harsh.
Yeah that was harsh…what is or should I say wtf is with all your emotion…all your energy?????..what’s it to you what I believe in?
FGC .. A+ on your post. And, don’t forget his co-conspirators were required to pay CRIMINAL RESTITUTION!! The guy is a con artist as far as I am concerned.
Trader Dan has written about the ‘cult! of the Gold Bugs; to an extent their paranoia about CBs and manipulation is very understandable, Soctrates followers are a distinct cult indeed; where a robot, a plaything of a fallible human (and criminal convict to boot) is being held up to be an all-seeing, omnipotent god. When a member of a cult is challenged on his/ her beliefs, we see very strong defensiveness and unwillingness to understand and see the power of the critic’s point of view. In this instance, The Vulcan is kicking the Robot’s ass.
Mark & Surf,
Great charts and cycle analysis! Thank you for your hard work!
Mark, Socrates has already indicated that gold is NOT in a bull market right now–I know you don’t subscribe to that—time will tell whether you or Socrates have it right…
Armstrong was a millionaire at 15
What has that got to do with trading Gold ?
He was also Jailed for Bilking Japanese Investers out of Billions of Dollars.
Marty is NO Saint
Wow folks. Did not mean to stir the pot. Only explaining, if anyone is curious, what his perspective is. Just like the markets change, so does perspective.
Perhaps I wasn’t clear. He was correct. He called the bottom in December. But he was very mum for a long time as things did not line up like he expected. No different from what’s happening out there now with these other “gurus.”
I just don’t think you should put him on blast because he has a particular view. What does it matter anyway? We are all already riding this bull in miners.
CarolynSue, not sure about the April 1 date. The target was 1305-7, which was hit. Sooo… right again. Good to hear form you too.
I personally will never discount what he is saying and always keep an eye open where he is concerned. It’s prudent. Then I do my own thing.
Here part of an email from Martin Armstrong to Chris Powell on May 14, 1999. Gold was around $270 at the time:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-15/gata-and-martin-armstrong-have-gone-it-nearly-17-years
“*From a Martin Armstrong email to my colleague Chris Powell…
May 14, 1999
Dear Chris:
I understand your frustration that gold has been perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But to argue that it is being manipulated due to large short positions is not justified.
There is no interest in gold at this time and the central banks are all sellers. After they sell their gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that supply and your bull market will begin.
I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200 before it turns…”
Marty was stubbornly calling for sub-$200 gold in 1999, just as he is stubbornly calling for sub $1000 gold today.
I apologize for stirring the pot too. I do think Armstrong is onto something interesting with his cycles theories but I think they may take years of rearview mirror analysis to know if he was correct in identifying things like his 2015.75 Big Bang. So far I’m not sure how anyone could recognize that date as significant in the markets even 9 months later…perhaps yyears from now it will show up as an inflection point in a major cycle in something. Even if that truly goes down in history as being some major inflection point in an economic cycle of some sort it seems infinitely untradeable. I used to put a lot of faith in his views but after several years now I can never figure out how to make money based on his or his computer’s projections. Instead I will just continue to trade what is right in front of me. This is simply my view and it’s no more valid than anyone else’s. MA is infinitely smarter and richer than I am….but I have no clue how to make money based on his analysis.
I promise no more posts about gurus anymore….poor form…sorry guys.
Spock and Mark called the beginning of this bull market, and Armstrong was left chattering to his heap of tin, Socrates. Those are the facts. Anyone who says this is not a bull market in PMs does not know how to read a chart. How many times must HUI have to make higher highs and higher lows before people acknowledge that a bull market is taking place? I was shocked when certain investors who had bought in January sold out because of Armstrong’s meanderings. I am not waiting to see if Armstrong or his computer is right, thereby missing out on thousands to hundreds of thousands of K’s. And that is what is going to happen to Armstrong worshippers. In fact, that is what has already happened if Armstrong persuaded people not to get into this bull market in February. Look at the percentage that these miners are up. Those are facts, not airy theories that a computer keeps grinding out. Get your charts out. Read them. Open your eyes.
Chuckle
Since the launch in January this has taken the form of a phase I bull. I compared the similarities in early Feb to the blast off of the DOW in August 1982. it had the same feel, it was eery. So therefore the proper strategy becomes to be right sit tight until it proves its not a phase I. It has really been that simple.
Simple but as most plans hard to execute. Phase II gets more complicated
Avi Gilburt, that was an excellent post last week about this correction being different. You did catch the wave. 🙂
Thank you . .. still seeking confirmation we are now on our way to 40+ GDX . . next two weeks will be interesting.