An exclusive response to Gold Tent members.
Dear Gold Tenters:
Recently you may have read an article written by an outside writer which was taken from a different site which was critical of my discussion of the potential breakout of gold above the $1309 level. It went beyond presenting a counter view as it was more of a thinly disguised attack on me personally. Of course, I have no problem with someone taking on an analytical perspective of mine with an opposing view if it is kept within the bounds of collegial debate. After all, that is what the forum is all about. However, that is not what this was, it was instead an in the gutter, outside the forum trash talk directed at my skills as an analyst.
No folks this is not going to develop into a Hatfield’s vs. McCoy’s feud. No, not even a Bill Ackman vs. Carl Icahn tussle either. Just setting the record straight and letting you decide.
This market guru must have been feeling a little heat from his own subscriber base for him to lash out in the manner which he did. Ordering your flock to the sidelines and then watching the market run away from you in a 135% romp must be kind of a bummer. So being on the sidelines with the HUI up 135% must have been his own little place in hell. So when a little wiggle correction came along he then saw his opportunity and he took it. Oh no, he didn’t take the entry, he took a swipe at Plunger instead.
The act of bootlegging someones work, posting it without credit, then picking it apart is of course the pinnacle of unprofessionalism. Later on he characterizes his target (me) as one of the amateurs. I ask who is the amateur here?
The article begins by labeling me as “The voice of complacency” because I recommend being right and sitting tight in what appears to be a bullish set-up to me. Sorry, this sidelined guru has interpreted a steady hand on the tiller as complacency. This steady hand is how I rode the rally up from near its beginning to its first peak of 135%. The correct strategy in phase I of a bull market is to get in early and hold on. That’s how you get the big gain. You don’t want to get caught on the sidelines and watch the market run off without you. Sure, when you get stretched to the upside like we were you can trim around the edges or even take a Casey free ride, but what one doesn’t do is sell all and run to the side lines.
Since this guru has labeled me as complacent, I feel it necessary to point out that I was the guy who was writing essays on the dangers of the upcoming bear market phase III way back in 2013. Emphasizing specifically the level of damage that lie ahead in graphic terms. At this precise time this particular guru had his subscribers deeply into Silver LEAPS. After they had lost 90% of their value his sage advice was to roll them over into the next year. This goes beyond complacent, its just reckless.
The article continues mentioning other quotes pulled from other essays without proper reference and out of context. Its sad to see someone resort to these methods. Let’s just put our ideas down on paper and back them up with our best analysis, that should be good enough.
This response is for Gold tent and Rambus forums only. Please don’t forward.
Sir Plunger, he missed the entire upward movement since Mar and is now patting his own back for a 17% discount entry from the top. Copying someone’s work and picking it apart was really uncalled for. That alone made him the lesser person.
I noticed that article-it was up for about 20 min when he took it down.
Am I crazy-I thought he took that down.
I now of several paid gurus who were pushing long trades near the top or after of that right shoulder on the miners monthly.
While the daily 9/20 ema was clearly in a downtrend. You know how that would have worked out.
I may counter trend day trade but its intra day only and in consolidation areas such as now.
Don’t know who you are referring to but I know the type. Idiots! (curious who it is though so I can read it)
I’m glad you wrote this. I thought the article was outrageous, especially that he posted your charts, apparently without permission, or due credit, for his own paid subscriber service and the general public. It was very uncool, and he obviously knows it, the article is nowhere to be found at this point.
I assume he took it down because he realized afterwards that it was showing he has no class!! Very, very unprofessional!
In the words of Monty Python, ‘he’s not a Guru, he’s a very naughty boy!’
Who the hell was it?? lol
Gary Savage …I cannot tell a lie
Thank you.
The article is still very much out there by the way…
What cracks me up is that he chose to look at a chart of gold instead of miners. I suspect very few of us trading the gold metal, we are probably 99% trading the miners! The miners were relatively unaffected by the drop in gold. They remain at nearly 2X on the year.
His article is still up over on the public site of Talkmarkets. It has never been taken down. Yes, Mark good point as his focus is on gold itself with no reference as far as I see publicly to individual stocks which is rather odd in my view since that’s where the money is to be made right? We have discussed before the limitations of ETF’s. I like to make the point that when one buys GDXJ he is announcing to the world that he has no skills in differentiating between the winners and the dogged losers. Why buy the bottom feeders at all when you can just focus on buying 5-7 of the winners and achieve adequate diversification. ans: because you have no market skills. By the way its not that hard…one just needs to adapt the Weinstein methodology.
So note this chart. Lookie here whats happening…the gold stocks are resisting decline relative to gold. A positive sign-no?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=20&id=p39786549576&a=400097494&listNum=99#
Plunger,
If he is taking a different position than you are, the great majority of the time it bodes well for your perspective . . . . remember, there really is no other “professional” out there that has more written about him regarding blowing up his subscribers accounts. Now, we are not speaking of someone who is just wrong a lot. No, the internet is littered with those whom he has blown up.
So, rest easy, sir. And, wear being on the opposite side of the market as a badge of honor, which will, more often than not, grow your own portfolio.
Thanks Avi,
and I can’t accurately describe his position as I don’t follow it enough, however my understanding is he has forecast lower lows in the PM stocks followed by a bull market. And that’s ok, but I know many of his subs must be squirming watching this thing from the sidelines having gotten out before the big move that we saw. Squirming because they are all gold bugs at heart.
I really don’t want to get bogged down in all of this since I made my exit long ago back in FEB 2013 when on his site I laid out my bearish perspective and was not welcomed anymore. So I moved on. Disaster soon struck shortly thereafter as wreckage ensued.
And you know what?, none of us know for sure that this is a bull market yet. We need to see a higher high now that this little mini correction has taken hold.
Now here is my question for you Avi. Since you are the most proficient at EW here please tell me your interpretation vs Robert Prechter’s view. My understanding is last year he called for a major A-B-C move in the gold price. Meaning that this move since early this year is just a bounce in the 5 year down trend. One would presume it is now over and we proceed to lower lows according to Robert. I like Robert, however its been my observation that he has never been very good at seeing the gold picture. Case in point, at the 2003 New Orleans conference he was still insisting that gold needed to go to sub $200. My recollection is $170. Mind you this was 3 years into a bull market he made this call.
Again I think Robert has a lot to contribute especially in the Psychological realm, but he simply was not connected to the correct market trends to hold onto this view for so long.
So I would like to hear your perspective differentiating this EW call of gold being in a massive ABC downward pattern to what yours is as pertaining to EW.
Thanks
Plunger,
I would no longer worry about him, because the only thing he does well is market himself. Ultimately, you should feel badly for his subscribers, as they are the ones who will get hurt in the end, and almost all are novice traders who do not know better. It’s sad, but it is as if he preys on those who know nothing. From what I understand, there really are no experienced traders in his forum . . . well, I was just told he did have one who people looked up to, and they were very perturbed when he posted he was going over to Elliottwavetrader (my trading room) due to the depth of knowledge and experience in our room. I have to admit, it did make me chuckle.
As far as Bob Prechter, I have the utmost respect for Bob for what he has done to further Elliott Wave analysis. I would not be doing what I currently am doing if it not were for him. He is also truly brilliant, and nothing less than that. Just brilliant. I HIGHLY recommend his socionomic set as a MUST READ for anyone who really wants to understand markets.
That being said, he has allowed his general “fundamental” perspective affect his wave counts, which is why his analysis has been so bad through the last decade.
As far as the ABC of metals and miners, we view the long term perspective of gold and silver as being a 1-2, i-ii long term structure, where they will be starting their iii of 3 should we get this break out. That is why I view this market in the same way that Elliott viewed the equity market back in 1941 and about to embark upon a massive multi-decade rally. As far as the miners, the 2011 high was a b-wave high for most of the them, with this drop being a c-wave in a very large degree wave 2. So, it is a bit different than the metals, as it is one degree behind the metals. But, under both circumstances I believe we are going to enter into a multi-decade bull market should we confirm the next break out.
Ah, the metal stocks leading the metal, that’s what we like to see.
Plunger ,
I am silent follower of this website, since some one commented negatively on one of the great contributors of this website, let me comment on my part.
I am trading Gold miners from 2011, initially I got few losses , as bias was towards bullish, then I started on the bearish late 2012.
I like FGC, Mark , Plunger, Rambus and other contributors , it is a great resource apart from my own analysis or interpretation of TA.
I like especially Plungers bear market cycles and Psychology , it helped me a lot to continue the course of bear market, I was able to make few good trades on Short side with JDST, so I was able to hold on emotionally this 4 years bear cycle.
I like the analogy used one of the articles , how bear market works, First Juniors got beaten down, then no liquidity, then the bear moved on to Seniors ?.
In Nov/Dec I was expecting , final wash out , so GDXJ or GDX will have climax sell, then we start new bull market. As mentioned in one of the articles.
But, as you know , Market won’t go as we expect, I took 20% of my portfolio in GDXJ for long term, when trading at $ 20, I was ready to loose 50% on this, as the risk/reward was good, as GDXJ lost 85-90% from peak. But was not sure on the timing, it would take another 2-3years or more, as the Bear cycle in Commodity is longer than Stocks.
Then stock hit 19->18->17 in Jan, when coming up from 17 to 18 , added 20% at $18, then 20% at $19 , then finally 40% at $20, finally 100% on average UP , as the GDXJ going differently than expected.
It was hard to hold till it pass 22 range high also 200DMA, but it passed the mark in 3-4 days. From that point over all things changed, I was able to hold it till we hit $38 in May. I sold 50% when GDXJ hit $38.5 second time, the stop triggered, when it started falling from 39.x to 38.5.
It was wonder full to see portfolio returned 100% in less than 3 months. But it does not matter , how much we got in short term, how much we keep in long term is only important.
As it hard to hold long term , with early bull market, I placed buy stop at $ 38.5, in case it turn out to resuming bull trend in short term. Otherwise I would like to add, if price reach 30.5 -29.5 ?.
Thank you Plunger for your excellent work on Bear/Bull market cycles and psychology behind it. It helped me at least.
Thank you all .. it is a great website I found, with little search on web for gold miners.
Siri,
Wow what a great story. And I admire your guts. Intestinal fortitude you have sir. Also good on you having the skill to trade out at the top.
I wish I could demonstrate similar abilities.
I am been an active investor for 35 years. All of my lessons were learned through self study and hard knocks. I wish I had an active mentor when I was young. Instead my mentors were of the written variety. The Richard Russell’s, Stan Weinstein’s and many others. If I had the good fortune to have had a father or close adult who knew anything about investing it would have accelerated the process, but I didn’t.
So I have watched and experienced the great cycles pass before me. The great century sized bull markets such as the 1982-2000 bull in the general stock market. I made some good licks, but I also gave a lot of it back not fully understanding how bull and bear markets flow and how the psychology develops. I have seen enough come and go to know that it is now my time to grab the brass ring. I no longer have a lifetime ahead of me, but I have had a great life and career and if I can have the big score I can pass it along and provide for my very responsible children which I am blessed to have.
That’s the big picture my friend and you seem to have a grasp of it….Keep a steady hand on the tiller!
Thank you Plunger, Great to hear your 35 years of experience.. I started investing in stocks from 2006 , first 3 years in India. Then moved to US in 2009, started trading from 2009.
Till 2010 , its learning I gained some, lost some trades, over all not much gain. I was relying more on Fundamental and News :).
I came to know , there is one thing called Technical Analysis , After that I regret last 5 years, not knowing it in advance :). I guess you had same feeling , with your earlier career.
I traded 2010 & 2011 in TZA & TNA , lost some capital, it was terrible experience , with 3x leverage ETFs. Then moved onto Biotech (Small Cap), did some fundamental research on my own and filtered throw stocks, and started investing , but the timing was wrong the stocks were still in down tend for next one and half year, it was lot of pain holding loosing position.
They were like Spock rocks :), but I could not hold them longer , exit them perfectly wrong time in early 2012, from then they started climbing up. I remember one of my favorite stock, I used to trade 40-50% my portfolio (DYAX), finally I gave up , I still remember that I was the last person, sold the stock at 1.18 :).
If i had at least 5-10% for long term, it would be a game changer, but you never get experience with winning trades.. I take it as learning.. Only regret that time was , not sort side ETF for Bitech, recently, we have LABD/LABU, but it was too late.
Then I started looking sectors more volatile and have two sided trading option, then I got GDXJ/JDST/JNUG on the list. I got few loosing trades in 2012, but TA helped to trade on Short side
on resistance, so with few profit trades, was able to ride last 4 years, otherwise it was impossible only on bull side.
Sametime, I found this great website and experienced people like you, I have no words to express on your valuable articles and TA.
With recent gain it helped small caps, especially the one on the brink of bankruptcy , got lifeline, they can survive few more quarters, with hedging contracts with gold price.
I too got lifeline 100% gain, so I can invest gain for longtime, even GDXJ reach $8-10 (95% down from peak :)…otherwise we are all Happy with new bull market.
As many people, I too have family and young children and 24/7 IT career :), so I could not spend time on cherry picking Stocks (Spock Rocks) and managing multiple stocks at a time, so stick to GDXJ for liquidity, otherwise I love to research and pick stocks.
Lets hope this bull will resume uptrend, otherwise also fine to deploy the 50% cash , when ever TA signal for buy.