Loading ...James Flanagan _ Gann Cycle PM sector
Weekend read. A healthy correction on the way????
All points to healthy correction in gold????
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Bob Moriarty:
Commercials don’t drive markets, speculators do. Commercials have to cover all the contracts the specs want to enter, not the other way around. But the number of people utterly clueless about how commodity markets work is quite remarkable. The spec longs and commercial shorts have hit a new record high. And we know the last people to buy are the weakest of weak hands. So they bail out at the first sign of distress. They have been bailing for days.
I wrote three weeks ago:-
“If you go to this link you will see a video that I think has the potential to be the most valuable in real terms of any piece I have ever posted.”
I’ll stand by that. Gann Global’s James Flanagan was saying three weeks ago that we were on the verge of an important correction. The high for gold was three days later. We have had a swishy-washy market for thee weeks. This correction has been one of the most predicted corrections in history. Everyone who understood anything about commodity markets understood that new record longs from the weakest of the weak hands was a screaming signal to get out.
Also from Institutional Advisor : Gold Following breakout :
Current Fib Fan lines??
Good work on the bearish divergence, I’d missed it.
I watched the Gann clip lined above (URL here):
http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2016/May/MetalSynd/04-26-2016-BloodInStreets.php
and thought it was excellent as an educational perspective with great illustrations and included many other commodity bear and bull markets as well as those in stock markets over the past 100 or so years.
I was interested to see how the 1986 992, 2000 and 2008 gold stock rallies played out and how they each had three legs up (except 1992 with 2 legs up). Basically he thinks the first leg up is done and a correction is coming (he had average of 59% of the up move in both gold and the gold stocks for the previous pullbacks).
The “MOVES IN GOLD STOCKS VERSUS MOVES IN GOLD” slide is indispensable and illustrates these statistics.
Yeah, great presentation.
I did notice that this video was made before gold made it to over $1300 and it still had the high for the gold move as being on 11 March at $1286. That might change the perspective slightly but he had noted how gold had failed to move to a new high while the stocks had been moving higher in April/May. The May 1305 high in gold would have changed that and put them back better in line.
Basically as far as I can understand, he is looking for the next buy point and thinks we have to wait for it to come now.
Early in 2001 I was reading that gold stocks on the avg moves 4 to 1 ratio up/down.
Flanagan provides actual historical data to prove that myth.
Yes i agree it is a very interesting piece of analysis.
On commodity cycle there is another analysis by Institutional Advisors is called Momentum Peak Forecaster. It works very well only when speculation in commodities is topping out.
In 2011 it forecast the top in silver and gold.
Oil will continue to go higher.