As mentioned a couple of posts below, Hamilton is the analyst who seems to share the perspective of many of us. I think the theme among most of the rest is confusion with the current situation…I suspect most don’t know how to trade today’s landscape because they cant reconcile strong moves in gold/PMs since January (which most seem to concede marked a major inflection point and beginning of a new uptrend) and the current COT data against the obvious fragility of the $USD. I suspect they are deer frozen by headlights and aren’t doing anything while waiting for what appears to be a better risk/reward entry.

Gary Savage – seems to be more angry than anyone else continuing to bang his fist on the table about gigantic pullback being imminent. I think he’s looking for something on the order of 62%. I have news for him, pullbacks in strong impulsive move tend to be shallow and a 38% retrace would be gift at this point…and even then, only once this first leg’s peak is inked. He’s also banking (i.e. praying) on the likes of headfake moves in the $USD to completely catch everyone offguard.

Watching for Undercut Bottom in the Dollar

By the way, when I first googled Savage today, I accidentally went onto an older URL of his from July 2014. Look how crushingly wrong he was back then. He was scolding people for not buying with both fists, looking forward to “proving everyone wrong”, and all the while his own subscribers were clearly leery of his advice and they were far more correct than him if you read the comments. GDX was at $26 and he was declaring the bottom while admonishing everyone who was tooo scared to buy at that level. Well it turns out that was a significant swing high and the GDX continued to drop over the next 18 months to $12. Ironically, now that GDX is $26 again he is now saying don’t buy!….what a perfect contrarian indicator he seems to be.

Savage July 2014

Clive Maund – I think his analysis pretty well represents where most of the gurus are right now. Very conflicted. This quote says it best:

The situation is paradoxical – gold and silver have broken out upside despite already extreme COT readings, yet the dollar has still not broken down. This setup continues to warrant caution, yet if the dollar should break down from its potential top area and drop hard, gold and silver will go into a vertical meltup

again, probably a deer in the headlights.

Gold Market Update

Jack Chan – I’ve always liked his unemotional approach and he mainly relies on long term signal as I believe he is mainly investor oriented (as opposed to trader). He indicates we are now on long term buy but short term in frothy territory and probably starting a correction. Again, a bit of a conundrum if you’re not already positioned.

Jack Chan Update

My take on all this is the following…..If you are a long term investor in this market, this is a time when you have a huge advantage over short term or even swing traders. You just sit and don’t fight the trend, saving some dry powder to add on dips until we see something that would suggest the long term trend is changing. I think the really active traders are going to get smoked here or at a minimum miss out on a huge portion of this uptrend which is likely still in its infancy.