Loading ...So What do the Gurus Think Now?
As mentioned a couple of posts below, Hamilton is the analyst who seems to share the perspective of many of us. I think the theme among most of the rest is confusion with the current situation…I suspect most don’t know how to trade today’s landscape because they cant reconcile strong moves in gold/PMs since January (which most seem to concede marked a major inflection point and beginning of a new uptrend) and the current COT data against the obvious fragility of the $USD. I suspect they are deer frozen by headlights and aren’t doing anything while waiting for what appears to be a better risk/reward entry.
Gary Savage – seems to be more angry than anyone else continuing to bang his fist on the table about gigantic pullback being imminent. I think he’s looking for something on the order of 62%. I have news for him, pullbacks in strong impulsive move tend to be shallow and a 38% retrace would be gift at this point…and even then, only once this first leg’s peak is inked. He’s also banking (i.e. praying) on the likes of headfake moves in the $USD to completely catch everyone offguard.
Watching for Undercut Bottom in the Dollar
By the way, when I first googled Savage today, I accidentally went onto an older URL of his from July 2014. Look how crushingly wrong he was back then. He was scolding people for not buying with both fists, looking forward to “proving everyone wrong”, and all the while his own subscribers were clearly leery of his advice and they were far more correct than him if you read the comments. GDX was at $26 and he was declaring the bottom while admonishing everyone who was tooo scared to buy at that level. Well it turns out that was a significant swing high and the GDX continued to drop over the next 18 months to $12. Ironically, now that GDX is $26 again he is now saying don’t buy!….what a perfect contrarian indicator he seems to be.
Clive Maund – I think his analysis pretty well represents where most of the gurus are right now. Very conflicted. This quote says it best:
The situation is paradoxical – gold and silver have broken out upside despite already extreme COT readings, yet the dollar has still not broken down. This setup continues to warrant caution, yet if the dollar should break down from its potential top area and drop hard, gold and silver will go into a vertical meltup
again, probably a deer in the headlights.
Jack Chan – I’ve always liked his unemotional approach and he mainly relies on long term signal as I believe he is mainly investor oriented (as opposed to trader). He indicates we are now on long term buy but short term in frothy territory and probably starting a correction. Again, a bit of a conundrum if you’re not already positioned.
My take on all this is the following…..If you are a long term investor in this market, this is a time when you have a huge advantage over short term or even swing traders. You just sit and don’t fight the trend, saving some dry powder to add on dips until we see something that would suggest the long term trend is changing. I think the really active traders are going to get smoked here or at a minimum miss out on a huge portion of this uptrend which is likely still in its infancy.
I should add that I did look at MA’s page and don’t know his take as of Friday. Strangely he hasn’t posted his May 6th Market Talk Summary. Hmmmm….I wonder if Friday’s action has anything to do with the delay????
Oh, goodie I have been waiting for this analysis. Mark thanks for checking this all out as I love the psychology aspect of it all. WOW that Savage link was a real eyeopener. I am sorry but this guy is full blown charlatan. Calling a bull market off the bottom is crazy. Heck I can’t even say this PM market now is a bull for certain yet, we won’t properly know until the fabled correction comes, then find a base and go to a new move high. Then we can declare it. His membership should recall this guy posts U-tube videos of himself lifting weight and spends his off time hanging off of cliffs…seriously. That to me spells adrenaline junkie with a possible ego problem.
A newsletter writers #1 objective should be to protect his subscribers hard earned money. After that he can think about how to make some. Having your subs in Silver leaps in a bear market doesn’t exactly fulfill this mandate.
This is reckless violation of ones fiduciary duty.
Again what I don’t see in any of these advisors is a knowledge of history. The great ones William P. Hamilton and Robert Rhea identified the phases of a bull market way back in the 1920’s and 30’s. There are plenty of examples to observe. We are in a rush to reclaim “Known Values” after have been compressed down in the previous Phase III. This is what happens and the proper investment strategy is to sit tight.
I have no loyalties to Gary Savage and am not a member but I think he’s got some useful info and some of the criticism is a bit harsh. He’s been wrong for sure but I could even pick out a post where Rambus was bullish on miners near all time highs… before changing stance and riding the bear. Gary does change when he’s been wrong as well. He called the recent GDX bottom almost to the day … the problem is that he is being quite stubborn in his views on a pullback. http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/01/was-that-the-bottom.html
The move in the dollar: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/01
The bottom in stocks: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/02/did-the-ppt-just-delay-the-7-year-cycle-low-again.html
He was also bullish on oil, ERX and biotech at their lows (I just don’t feel like looking for the links). Now, all of these could reverse and they will look like bad calls 2 years from now but I actually made a good bit of money off some of that analysis. With all that being said, I still think this blog has the best traders on the planet… just trying to be fair though.
Whoops here was the dollar link http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/01/chart-of-the-day-215.html
Yes,he called the gdx bottom the same day,probably he was the only who had the courage to see the break of the head and shoulder as a trap.
Now he is waitin for a deep correction,anyway I have seen that FGC has invited Gary Tanashian to comment here at Goldtent,it would be interesting to also have the other Gary (Savage)here .
The clash of the Titans 🙂
I think(hope) the use of the word “guru” here is a touch sarcastic, pejorative. Such figures can provide useful information. Even when they don’t, they can provoke you to think by forcing you to figure out where they might be wrong. (For example, I learned quite a bit from James Sinclair, now not so widely admired, even though I knew even from the start that some was 100% wrong and even more of it at best iffy–though I wish I had been perhaps even more skeptical.) However my own opinion is that as a group the gurus tend towards charlatanry. They almost have to.
I learned of this site only a few months ago. I have to say that–even if PM markets now descend for years, contrary to my expectations–the best analysts I’ve encountered have been exactly here (not that I fully trust them any more than I trust myself). I don’t want to insult them by applying the term “guru.” Without them I would have held on to my remaining PM positions, I would have noted how the markets were trading and bought some more. But–
seeing, e.g., the erudite and thoughtful Plunger (an outstanding example) reverse his perspective 180 degrees almost instantaneously gave me confidence in my impression that these stocks were suddenly trading better than they had in >5 yr. I then did far better than I would have on my own by loading up on Spock rocks as well as some of my own gravel.
These are all very thoughtful comments above and yes I admit I was a bit harsh on Gary. Its tough to be making the calls out there. Its just that when one has such an avid following he has a higher level of responsibility to keep them out of harms way.
The word “Guru” is not used with sarcasm by be its used actually with contempt. The market chews up and spits out anyone who sees himself as a guru. I recall Russell would cancel the subscription of anyone who ever called him a guru. He knew how dangerous this concept was to ones ego.
Thank goddess no one keeps track of my calls! 🙂 but you’re right, I don’t have subscribers.