Loading ...Gentleman’s Entry : Hopes Dashed
Here are my thoughts on the great hoped for correction in the HUI. Rambus drew out a great playbook observation card last night from a technical perspective, and here is what I see from a market history and psychological perspective. We all know we have a slew of gold bull wannabes that want into this bull trend in the worst way, but at yesterdays prices. They have lusted for a bull market in the PM stocks and have chased false bottoms all the way down in the bear market. So here we are now in an established uptrend and they find themselves on the sidelines or grossly underinvested. Thanks to the great advice of their preferred gold bug Gurus!
So the ulcers have been building on the sidelines watching the train leave the station. They need a “correction” or secondary reaction in the worst of ways. But here is the thing, a secondary reaction comes after everyone has gotten aboard the boat and are leaning over on the bullish side. It comes not when it is wanted or expected. It comes when the consensus is that prices must now advance higher. Clearly it is wanted now more than I have ever seen before, so I suspect that what we have seen is simply normal market breathing action. We might have even attracted some short positioning which may turn into a religious experience in short order to those positioned if we can run-up to a new high in the HUI. The bull has no desire accommodating these sidelined sympathizers, in fact he relishes seeing them looking from the outside in with hollow eyes.
I suspect the mini pull back is over
wow- great piece, powerful, like this bull! 🙂
HUI keeps riding down to the 50 MA on the 60 minute chart, sometimes dipping a bit below it, then launching again. Impressive, bullish action after four years of free fall. Thanks, Plunger, for your astute analysis.
I cant disagree at all Plunger and have been investing accordingly having been positioned all year and haven’t sold a single mining share. To monitor the psychology it may be interesting to see what the Gurus like Clive Maund, Gary Savage, Avi, and that guy I linked in an early post (from 3-2-1Gold who suggested a HUI pullback to 200MA or at least 180) are advocating these days. It will be my amusement over the weekend. I know Savage was “guaranteeing” a trip back to 175 and Avi had his followers backed off to only 20% investment during the week of April 11th. If this fine site of Goldtent does nothing else, I hope it encourages people to be independent thinkers.
When I googled Gary Savage a few minutes this video popped up. The only thing worse than his analysis is his hubris.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-going-move-down-yearly-cycle-low
Please report back to us with a headline posting. I would like to see what these guys are saying
Will do. And speaking of Gurus, let’s not leave out MA. It’s interesting to read his bias and fixation with day-to-day moves such as this posting of his yesterday:
“Silver continued to close in a negative position. Technically, a closing back below 16.80 will also warn that the May high may be in place, Resistance in gold continues to stand at the 1285 level intraday and on a closing basis.”
and prior days —
From May 4: “Gold closed neutral today and silver still in a bearish position.”
From May 3: “Likewise, the precious metals fell out of bed as well Silver was the weakest and made another new low closing again beneath the previous day’s low. Gold firmed up more than silver in the morning session but could not make new highs falling back to 1284 and closing below the previous day’s low.”
From May 2: “Silver made an outside reversal to the downside closing below Friday’s low and both gold and silver made the new highs in May but could not hold on to the gains just yet despite the rally in the Euro.”
Why does a guy with a computer model based on timing need to be concerned with outside reversal candles???
100%
His analysis is different from his Computor’s analysis which apparently has long positions
MA is doing “simple” TA with the emphasis on “Simple”
On the yearly IF the price this year exceeds the high of last year …that is Bullish
On the Monthly…ditto…but if it does not exceed last months high that is bearish and if it exceeds last month’s low that is more bearish
I am amazed that anybody follows him for trading. He has made some good long term calls apparently but they are useless for trading…but good enough to make a movie .
I am glad you are calling him out here Mark. I addition to being simplistic his calls are undecipherable with his jargon…elect this elect that if then maybe.