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I can see a scenario where the broader markets push into a double top this summer followed by a plunge into year end. Watch underlying energy and commodity strength fuel that move. This could tee up a nice shorting opportunity into year end. For now I wouldn’t dare be short….I think the recent SM weakness is a trap. I really like this combo of fib fit and Wolfe Wave…..
logical scenario, given the majority would not see it
Certainly a good possibility. I do think we are in a SM bear market, but we could have selective indexes still reach new highs before any deluge.. I agree I would not short any indexes here. Maybe individual shares may be shorted, like I shorted Apple last week, but the money is in being long the PMs obviously.
Keep us updated on the short set-up as the year progresses
I’m not sure we are in a SM bear just yet. Here is a chart I did last August where I was looking for the 20ema to morph into resistance on the S&P monthly. The current action is pretty ambiguous and is sideways and trendless at the moment perhaps but has regained a supportive stance nonetheless.
http://schrts.co/gwl6xa
I should say that I am short real estate via DRV as posted last week but not the broader markets.
I am watching 2034-40 SPX reaction. Below is a good case for the bears; using Caldaro EW and pivots for guidance. ALWAYS, confirmed with my own TA. Good luck guys!
My IH&S targets from the daily line chart are 11585 percentage move and 11425 nominal. Seems too high really but those are the targets.