Loading ...HUI Outperforming Gold ?
YES it surely is .
Some say this means the rally must now correct because Gold is lagging and this isn’t a real move because HUI is Dumb Money and Gold is Smart
I added Gold to the HUI Bull market Rally Chart
Look at 2001 . HUI Took off from its all time low at 35 to 80 in 5 months…while Gold actually dropped from $265 to $252 then when HUI peaked out Gold was $295…So HUI ran 220% while Gold “ran” 7% .
Fully,in one of your last comments you have noted that Miners bulls started in 1975-1995 and possibly now 2015/2016.
There is a HUGE Miners bull every 20 years.
It would be vital to understand when to stay invested in miners and when in etf’s (or physical),there will be times when gold and silver outperforms PM stock and times when PM stocks will outperforms etf’s (as it is now).
IF this is a new PM bull market,will it be more a PM stocks bull or a gold/silver bull?
Gold Fever = Miner Fever…Everything with the name Gold in it moves
Last time (1994 to 96 …The BreX Mania) Goldbond was a big mover…yes the anti itch cream company
LOL
I think it is very important that people read this post to understand why gold doesn’t need to move lockstep with the HUI.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=358390
In many ways, some of these mining companies have never been in a better position.
If you examine the corrections that followed the upward moves and put them in proper context, the retracements are actually relatively shallow, which makes sitting on your positions and doing nothing a very powerful $$$ making strategy.
Upward Move Correction Retracement
220% 25% 11.36%
175% 40% 22.86%
130% 36% 27.69%
150% 32% 21.33%
Right shoulder
the gentleman’s entry off a right shoulder? Possible.
Nah…the bull does not seem to be that accommodating.
That is one very, very important chart Fully as I see it. More than great work here I think. This one really tells a story and proves that ones should not be to concerned about what gold is up to in the beginning of this continuation of the bull market.
As long as miners are looking good we do not really have to worry about gold.
Nice chart!
I see just one issue. The dead low in gold was in late 1999 at $252.80 London Fix. Gold had its first rally on the Central Bank Gold Agreement (Washington Accord) in September 1999 to around $335, then gave most of it back slowly until it made the secondary low near $255.80 in early 2001.
HUI rallied sharply on the CBGA late 1999 from about 63 to 100 and as gold came back down the HUI crashed to 35 by November 2000. HUI bottomed on the secondary low of gold not the actual bear market low so there is a difference there.
However, another difference between then and now: the HUI didn’t outperform gold much on the spike in late 1999: the HUI:Gold ratio went from about 0.250 to 0.325, then crashed on the gold pullback all the way down to a bear market low of 0.135 – ouch! In 2016, the HUI has screamed ahead of gold so I am hoping that it is the real thing already this time around.
HUI, gold and HUI:Gold charts for the period 1999-01-01 to 2001-12-31:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&st=2000-04-04&en=today&id=p02097917506&a=312811263
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24hui&p=M&st=1999-01-01&en=2001-12-31&id=p02097917506&a=312811263
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=M&st=1999-01-01&en=2001-12-31&id=p02097917506&a=312811263
This time, HUI:Gold ratio has gone from 0.09 to 0.17 (almost doubled) in only about 3 months straight out of the gate after a bottoming process lasting about 6-7 months:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=M&st=2015-01-01&en=2016-04-25&id=p02097917506&a=312811263
That is almost the same as the out-performance in the first leg up from late 2000 to mid 2001 on the third chart above as gold went and tested its lows and bounced of $255.80 in early 2001. In late 2000 to mid-2001 HUI:Gold went from 0.135 to 0.280, just over a double. Very similar action but a little faster in 2016!