Loading ...SKI GOLD
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html
SKI Gold latest public update. Important part in bold. Note the possibility of a melt-up to some sort of top. Melt-up would describe what is happening today especially in the silver miners.
Last week’s execution (on 4/12/16) of the 16-20 index sell signal marked the next resistance. A rise above that level has historically yielded a “melt-up rise” into a major top. That’s what happened at the 1979, 1983, May 2002, and May 2006 bull market tops. Such a “melt-up” does not “have to” be a permanent end to a multi-year rise, as per the May 2002 top that “only” yielded at 6-month decline. After all, the very long-term USERX 221 index remains on its buy signal (and will take a year to sell at a profit) and the HUI’s 221 index only executed its synchronous 221 index buy signal just before last week’s strong rise (executing on 4/06/16 at 181.05). Since there isn’t any “certainty” in predicting human behavior, I’d note that the 16-20 index’s sell signal “could have” marked an exact important high. I’ve probably “pissed off” some subscribers by disclosing all of this information, but I’m refraining from discussing the 442 and 663 indices’ very long-term information. Please be “prudent” in what should be a highly volatile environment for the gold stocks as SKI remains on its “special/unique” bull market buy signal(s) from late January 2016.
In laymans terms what does that even mean?
It means that the 442 (quite common in England circa the 70s, less so today given the modern 433 or even 5-4-1 using wing backs) and 663 reveal important and “special/ unique” characteristics that we must pay for…
Like you, I struggle to decipher this but I guess he’s warning that we’re on the next impulse leg up that will rise very quickly indeed – consistent with the GDXJ charts Spock has posted (showing rise into mid-May) and then will need to correct for quite some time. But,that’s purely my guess.
The numbers used are the back prices for USERX the longest running gold mutual fund with numbers back to the early 70s. SKI gold has over 40 years of data and uses his unique system based on past performance to determine what will likely be the set up going forward.
Regarding the long term indexes their is a possibility that a very bullish long term scenario could be triggered this week….
But doesn’t ‘melt-up’ imply a long-term top (i.e. followed by a prolonged bear mkt)that by definition would take a long time to revisit e.g. silver to $50 in 2011? Or is he saying that this move could be dramatic and take a long time to play out?
We could have a melt-up then a top for a while like in 2001 followed by a resumption of the upward trend again. How far the melt-up goes I don’t know. USERX target of $10 was thrown out there as a wild guess. USERX traded yesterday at $7.43. That implies a 50% or so gain is possible from yesterday. It would fit with Spock’s targets posted here as well.
Ok thanks. I sub’d once but really couldnt understand it yet know many swear by it.
Kern’s indices, from the “16”(-20) on up, represent 5 day price bands from the past, that he carries forward into the present to represent support or resistance.
I would assume (I haven’t kept his spreadsheet for this up to date) that the 442 and 663 (trading days back) bands are likely directly overhead.
The math is simple. But make no mistake, even having his tools can leave you scratching your head trying to read the tea leaves.
Just the same, however he does it, he makes some stunning calls.
I do think he took English from the same teacher Armstrong did …. very elliptical writing at times.