Surveying the Landscape. What do you Believe ?
OK Huddle up .
Lots of Fear and Greed in the PM Market . And Lots of Confusion in ALL markets really
We in this Community who gather here to decifer / trade the Precious Metals Markets , are from diverse backgrounds and from all around the Planet.
However most of us have one thing in common . We are Either Goldbugs or at the least believe Gold is going to Appreciate in Value a great deal at some point when the Financial Sh!t Hits the fan .
Many members have battle scars and are hardened veterans of Gold . Having Basked in the wonderful and easy profits of the great PM Bull Market of the Golden Decade ( the fist decade of the new millennium). An then having Suffered in the recent , perhaps ongoing ,half decade Bear Market from Hell , we have earned our stripes.
Some even lived through the 20 year crushing bear market which followed the previous Golden Decade , the 1970s
Some have watched basically every tick in the price of gold almost 24/7 for as long as the internet has been in existence.
Most are still convinced of the manipulation Story. Some have come to understand all markets have been and always will be manipulated to some degree and it is best to ignore this if one wants to make money trading .
Manipulation is a very emotional subject around PMs. This is one guys experience with it.
I was a charted member of Lemetropole Café and basically for 13 years…1999 to 2012 read everything Bill Murphy and friends wrote and believed 100% of it..anybody who challenged this thinking was an idiot IMO. I had lots of battles with the idiots . I was a militant Goldbug at this very url for many years and had many good friends in that camp.
We were crushed in the 08 Crash…lost 80% of the great portfolio I had built up in the Go Go years and I fought the Bears ( including Rambus) all the way down .
Then one day after the incredible V bounce that bailed us out in 2009 2010 I had an epiphany…”Like who is the Idiot here ?”…IF Gold is manipulated by the Most Powerful people on the Planet why are we all buying it and its derivitives ?
Shouldn’t we be shorting it ? Shouldn’t we be tagging along with the Evil Banksters
So after being fortunate enough to hook up with my friend Rambus and more recently my new friend Trader Dan
I learned the Market can be read via Technical Analysis and trends could be identified and money could be made from both sides of a market…DUH !
And that Gold doesn’t ALWAYS go up even if I think it should. And that even if there are manipulations by the Powerful at times , they are all in the Charts. Charts are the sum total of every fundamental , manipulation , sentiment, seasonal , cycles . All the information is there for us to decipher
What I have observed here of late is the passion we all have for PMs and the excitement that for the first time in 5 years we have perhaps a glimmer of hope that the Bottomz Inn .
The jury is still is out of course as Plunger so succinctly pointed out . A Higher Low followed by a higher high is needed to confirm . BUT after numerous deceiving Bear Market Rallies there has been good evidence presented here that indeed the bottom may very well be behind us. If nothing else we have had strong fast gains here.
Some have been on this market early and are nervous of loosing their great gains yet again
Some have hesitated and are waiting for a pull back but are frustrated and anxiously wanting in .
Some are not yet convinced and will wait for lower lows…sub $1000. But still must be impressed with PMs
SOME ARE BUYING INTO THE MARKET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ANTICIPATION OF EASY RICHES.
At any rate WHEREVER YOU ARE COMMING FROM WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER SO lets remain civil and respectful to each other here as all sides are examined. None of us really know for sure where we are in this market. All I can advise is go with what you believe.
I believe the Bottom was 1045 Gold and that we will make a higher low somewhere between here and there.
Followed by a higher High.
I believe Junior Miners which have dropped 90% plus but are still alive offer the chance for life changing gains over the next few years .
I believe that the Manipulation Question is antithesis to being able to rationally make trading decisions as it taints you with an emotional outlook which screws with your timing.
I believe in TA !
What do you believe >?
What I believe or think is usually wrong when it comes to markets. I think to myself what does the market want me to think and believe and what is the opposite of what I believe will happen and try to lean toward the opposite when I’m forced into a decision. Most of all, I try not to think or believe. I want to BE profitable. I want to BE on the right side of the trade regardless of whether I think/believe its nonsense or not. That’s what makes the great ones, I believe.
I believe it is a bull market but expect we could easily see a retest of 1180. I’m up in the Jr miners enough that I’d rather just get it over with if its going to happen.
Hi Fully, thanks for having me onboard.
I believe in CB manipulation, TA and fundamental analysis and having a good read of the global/macro trends.
I believe the gold bottom is behind us and a re-evaluation of the entire mining sector to previous known values is due, whether pm prices go sideways or up.
And I believe there is already a fundamental shift in perception among the investment industry, having witnessed how gold and silver are the only asset classes that did spectacularly well in face of the global markets’ routs in early Jan/Feb. The strong case for diversification into PMs/Mining sector are already set. And this was evident in Mar when all pullbacks were being bought, most probably by “strong hands”/”smart money”.
Nice to see you and welcome to the tent Marauder
We need fresh new Investors to become interested in this sector
Us Old guys are getting tired of holding this thing up
🙂
No worries. Will chip in my bit.
“IF Gold is manipulated by the Most Powerful people on the Planet why are we all buying it and its derivatives ?”
If your friends won’t tell you…
Rasputin – Thu, Apr 14, 2016 – 04:48 PM
I hate to be the bearer of bad news to the gold bugs, but China’s new gold exchange will change nothing regarding PMs.
And here’s why:
The Reds–like all other Thug governments, worldwide–practice their own version of the “Ponzi Pyramid of Debt and Derivatives Death”, which consists of:
1. Fiat currency
2. Fractional reserve lending
3. Central banking
…and now including the “Bonus Layers” of:
3. Securitization
4. Other derivatives
So, why in the world would they dare to destroy their own authority over such a wildly-profitable system (for them), by backing their currency with specie?
Answer: they won’t.
Now, lest any die-hard GHSers/SHSers take ol’ Ras to task and call me all the usual names (“Troll”, “Traitor”, “Government Agent”, etc.) Please allow a Mad Monk to remind you that from 1980 until 2010 (a thirty-year span) I was the biggest “Gold Bug” on the planet.
However, even I had to admit–after having my rat-like Rasputin snout rubbed in piles of Infinite Fiat–that there was ZERO chance of the Ponzi system being dismantled. For, not only do the AlphaPigs in charge of the Ponzi Monetary System love it, so too do the GUMS worship the PMs, as it allows them to live beyond their means for years…before the “Wash/Rinse/Repeat” cycle kicks in, and “Everybody Loses a Hand” is implemented.
Then, a new cycle begins again, of course, as it has most recently in Russia, Argentina, and any number of additional countries over the past couple of decades.
Furthermore, I have read and heard every single screed from the scroom-o-sphere as to why–“Any minute now, they swear”–whips and spoons were going to once again become “money”. Here are some of the ones that my aging, ailing Rasputin memory can recall:
1. The Japanese are buying!!!
2. Blanchard vs. Barrick!!!
3. JPM silver shorts are gonna get carried out on stretchers!!!
4. GLD and SLV EFTS are open for business!!!
5. The U.S. Nightcrawler is gonna collapse!!!
6. The Russians are buying!!!
7. GATA to the rescue!!!
8. The U.S. Mint is running out of (fill in the blank with favorite shiny coin)!!!
9. Bitgold!!!
10. And now: The Commie Chinese are opening up their own exchange!!!
Meanwhile, gold and silver have been in a HALF-A-DECADE slump and both are below the price I sold my entire stash six years ago.
Not to mention that the world is heading in the exact OPPOSITE direction as all manner of electro-digit currencies (think Bitcoin) and Millenial-catering technologies (think smartphones/tablets/wearables) are taking the place of even fiat cash, so it’s difficult to envision several billion brainwashed GUMS suddenly reverting to being “Gold Lugging Luddites” and traipsing around with stashes of silver and gold in order to transact during their miserable, pathetic lives.
So, this latest excuse for the purveyors of PMs to unload more product on gullible GHSers/SHSers (which begs the question: If gold and silver are going “To da moooon!!!!”, then why would these shiny-coin vendors be willing to trade THEIR precious stashes for “worthless” fiatscos?”) will prove to be just another marketing ploy.
However, I am painfully aware that fantasies and delusions die hard, so this message will be ignored at best, and garner me all manner of personal attacks at worst, from those who simply cannot accept the brutal truth that the Ponzi Monetary System is here to stay.
To which I reply: “If your friends won’t tell you…”
http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=141738&post=517675
TAR and FEATHER …BLASPHEMY !
(ps your link requires member log in )
Regards Pedro
🙂
Just supplying the source.
Access to the site is free … might need to register, yes.
GHS SHS gold/siver hoarding seditionists
GUMs great unwashed masses
Glad I threw all of this kind of thinking out the window some years back. More fart chasing to even worry about it. If the chart breaks out, I’m in. And the miners continue to break out on a daily basis.