Loading ...1970 vs 2000 Gold Bull Comparison Update
I would like to get an updated perspective on this post as to why today’s date is not late 1976 instead of 1994. Personally, I think we are on the precipice of a second (giant) leg up in PM’s with 2011-2015 just being a CB induced pause/countertrend dip (a la Dec ’74-Aug ’76 – but of course for diff’t reasons). Any updated thoughts would be greatly appreciated FGC (or others).
http://goldtadise.com/?p=358337
That was then and this is Now
I favour 1976 (40 years ago)
But 1994 (20 years ago) is not out of the question either
I like this one. Like Fully, I like the 76 comparison. Pretty amazing likeness thus far.
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2016/02/6-Gold-bear-markets-compared.png
Thanks for the link Gary, I’ve also observed that nearly the entire 70’s cycle DOW/GOLD RATIO cycle is very similar from 2001 to now at roughly less than half speed. That was a 10 year cycle, this could be a 20+ yr cycle (in which case I figure we’re in year 12-13)
PM RUN #1 DOW/GOLD ratio
04/71 pk to 12/74 low lasted 43 months
04/01 pk to 08/11 low lasted 124 months (going to the PM peak)
Present cycle is 2.8 times in duration
(I’d also like to mention there were similar 40%+ SM washouts at the end of the first ratio runs where PM’s remained relatively flat)
SM crashed 03/74-12/74 (12/74 corresponded with Gold’s Peak)
SM crashed 03/08-03/09 (PM’s didn’t peak till 08/11)
PM DIP DOW/GOLD ratio (cyclical bear in secular bull move)
12/74 low to 9/76 pk lasted 20 months
08/11 low to 11/15 pk?? last(ed) 51 months (assuming this IS a peak)
Present cycle is 2.5 times in duration
PM RUN #2 DOW/GOLD ratio
9/76 pk to 12/79 low lasted 40 months
11/15 pk to ?June 2022? (90 months)7-8 years.
Assuming the accelerated second run is 2.25 times duration (just my guess).
The reason I started looking at 1976 in the first place was to get an idea of how investor sentiment treated the rebound in GOLD after the disheartening 1/75 pk to 9/76 low severe whiplash period after the early 70’s PM bull. Beginning 9/76 I counted 3 pole/flag formations with increased strength/duration in the rebound and from there it was off to the races through 12/79. There were some real setback periods 9.5% 3/31/77 to 6/15/77 for example, that had to be weathered but that was still early in the secular bull move. Our recent pole/flag isn’t shaping up the same way as in ’76 so maybe maybe for comparison’s sake the current timeline needs to be stretched out a bit.
I won’t go into it here but I also did some fundamental world event era comparisons of waning USD influence (having gone off the gold std), petro-dollar deal, OPEC/OIL control of pricing, Saudi was PO’d at the US (for diff’t reasons then) etc. which all correlate to what is happening in the current cycle. Very interesting indeed.