Loading ...Armstrong’s Economic Model
Just had a look at this for the first time
Armstrong has been preaching Doom and Gloom and Armageddon Now on his Blog
To the point it is depressing to even read it
But this “Model” shows he expects we are in a Strong Bull in Economic Confidence until 2033
So Why the GLOOM AND DOOM….WE ARE IN A MINOR DOWNTURN HERE WITHIN A BOOM !
Anyone else surprised ?
Looks like the Party Really gets started in 2029 !
After 2033 though ….looks like Mad Max
How old will YOU be in 2033 ?
He also has a gold update released today in the “Private Socrates Blog”
so what good is that to us ?
I can’t say… if someone has access to it, it would be nice if they could share it.
there are quite a few subscribers to Socrates over at the Rambus site…..
I guess Armstrong is preaching doom and gloom, Fully, because he doesn’t believe in the dang Confidence Model.
MA expects the move from now til 2033 to be the flight from sovereign bonds to private equity.
Then that too collapses after 2032. The real deflation occurs then.
By 2050 (if not before) he expects the global financial center to relocate to east Asia.
I don’t expect to be a witness to that.
Thanks for the explanation. I guess that doesn’t sound too bad. Or does it?
It appears from what you say that it will be interesting in the wrong way for many people well before 2032 as sovereign bonds lose their attraction because surely that means bankrupt governments and social security systems well before 2032. Like perhaps any minute now.
I don’t have a lot of confidence in his confidence model. Anyone can draw wiggly lines.
Is it good for selling subscriptions until 2032.95. That might be in time for Christmans 2032 for MA to have a big retirement party.
Here are the updates from the blog, and also the Socrates updates for /gc, gdx, and gdxj. Always remember that the way Armstrong trades is he uses timing cycles(forecast arrays) combined with technical analysis/indicators(Socrates). …for example: timing cycle says we usually always get a Spring gold rally, and if indicators start crossing up confirming we get that cycle rally then we go long (I think this is how Armstrong trades). So current example based on my opinion of his strategy is (cycles says it is time for gold to drop hard for a couple months, but indicators are still bullish, so be cautious bc indicators lag and sooner or later it’s gotta pullback if not make a new low, so for now remain bullish targeting 1300 plus with tight stops bc forecast arrays says timing wise we are due for a drop)
ok, so Here is the blog update: Today’s closing in gold nearest futures at the $1234 level has elected a Monthly Bullish Reversal which stood at the $1208 level. This confirms the Weekly Bullish we elected previously at $1209 confirming that we should exceed the February high during March reaching our target zone of $1309 up to $1365. We can also see that the two main channels intersect during March at the $1390 level. Reactions are 2 to 3 time units so we have March as 3 months up from the December low that formed on the first Benchmark. Therefore, for a change in real trend, gold MUST continue the rally beyond March and we must now achieved a monthly closing above $1365. Our Quarter level of the model generated a Bullish Reversal at the end of the year reversing its short positions and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next Bullish Reversal at the $1347 level. Hence, March now must simply close ABOVE $1347 to sustain any hope of continuing the rally. Now it appears a future Quarterly closing below $1130 will warn of a break below $1,000.
Here is what Socrates says about /gc: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 1234.4 is trading up about 16.43% for the year from last year’s closing of 1060.2. This market remains trading above last year’s closing and the monthly momentum models so it is in bullish territory for the year. This market has been in a BEARISH phase for the past 23 months. Some caution is necessary since the last high 1392.6 was important given we did obtain a sell signal from that event established during March 2014. Analytically, my long-term view stance recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend at this time. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2016 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2024. To accomplish an extended decline of this nature requires penetrating beneath 681 on an annual closing basis. However, it appears to be unlikely given the fact that the market is still trading 34% above key support. Therefore, with this view in mind, we will focus on a low forming in 2016 for now.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 681 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 1432.5, while support immediately lies down at 681. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 1923.7 major high established back in 2011.
Observing the immediate trend remains bullish since February made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact last month also closed higher.
On our Pattern Recognition Model, we see current projections on each time level as follows: Beginning with the yearly level, I see the pattern projection currently on a dynamic basis so far this year is counselling of a temp low. Observing the quarterly level, I see that here the pattern status is suggesting that this is a Reaction High. Viewing the pattern model for the monthly level, here I can see our pattern position remains possible waterfall event. Turning now to the weekly level, the pattern status currently is that new lows lie ahead. Considering the daily level, I can see our pattern posture remains over sold possible low. Currently, this market remains uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 12 weeks. The last weekly level low was 1045.4 formed during the week of November 30th. The last high on the weekly level was 1263.9 created during the week of February 8th. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 2 months. The last monthly level low was 1045.4 formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 1263.9 created during February.
Here is what Socrates says about gdx: Gld Miners closed today at 19.38 is trading up about 41.25% for the year from last year’s closing of 13.72. This market remains trading above last year’s closing and the monthly momentum models so it is in bullish territory for the year. This market has been in a BEARISH phase for the past 23 months. Some caution is necessary since the last high 27.85 was important given we did obtain a sell signal from that event established during March 2014. Universally, my broader-term expectation in Gld Miners remains in a bearish trend since we have penetrated last year’s low of 12.51. If this year closes below last year’s low of 12.51, then we should expect a further decline next year. This market has entered a bearish consolidation phase on the yearly level by closing below 30.03 on an annual basis. However, overhead key resistance for a bull market stands at 50.96. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 65.06 major high established back in 2011.
Focusing on the immediate trend remains bullish since February made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact last month also closed higher.
On our Pattern Recognition Model, we see current projections on each time level as follows: Focusing on the quarterly level, I see that here the pattern status is turning to upside. Targeting the pattern model for the monthly level, here I can see our pattern position remains turning to downside. Turning now to the weekly level, the pattern status currently is possible low. Observing the daily level, I can see our pattern posture remains forming base. Currently, this market remains uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 weeks. The last weekly level low was 12.4 formed during the week of January 18th. The last high on the weekly level was 19.85 created during the week of February 22nd. This market is neutral for now on all our monthly indicators. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 19.85 created during February. The last monthly level low was 12.4 formed during January.
Here is what Socrates says about gdxj: Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner closed today at 25.97 is trading up about 35.19% for the year from last year’s closing of 19.21. This market remains trading above last year’s closing and the monthly momentum models so it is in bullish territory for the year. This market has been in a BEARISH phase for the past 19 months. Some caution is necessary since the last high 46.16 was important given we did obtain a sell signal from that event established during July 2014. At this time, my broader analysis prognosis in Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner remains in a bearish trend since we have penetrated last year’s low of 17.79. If this year closes below last year’s low of 17.79, then we should expect a further decline next year. We have experienced a classic bear market from the high of 2011 to the low of 2016. Meanwhile, we have also not breached any long-term resistance which begins at 154.06. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 154.06 major high established back in 2011.
Concentrating on the immediate trend remains bullish since February made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact last month also closed higher.
On our Pattern Recognition Model, we see current projections on each time level as follows: Looking at the pattern model for the monthly level, here I can see our pattern position remains turning to downside. Turning now to the weekly level, the pattern status currently is caution. Looking at the daily level, I can see our pattern posture remains forming base. Currently, this market remains uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 weeks. The last weekly level low was 16.87 formed during the week of January 18th. The last high on the weekly level was 26.16 created during the week of February 22nd. This market is neutral for now on all our monthly indicators. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 26.16 created during February. The last monthly level low was 16.87 formed during January.
Thanks for that post, SirWeston. It is still confusing as always, but it appears his most pertinent information is gleamed from the following lines IMO.
“Therefore, for a change in real trend, gold MUST continue the rally beyond March and we must now achieved a monthly closing above $1365. Our Quarter level of the model generated a Bullish Reversal at the end of the year reversing its short positions and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next Bullish Reversal at the $1347 level. Hence, March now must simply close ABOVE $1347 to sustain any hope of continuing the rally. Now it appears a future Quarterly closing below $1130 will warn of a break below $1,000.”
Thanks Sir Weston
I am astounded that anyone takes this shit seriously
It is absolute chaos and nonsensical
I bought the first Gold Release for $400
Garbage
and this is worse
The daily suggests this but the weekly suggests that and the quarterly elects this if the monthly elects that
How can anyone take this seriously
I prefer Bo Polny
sheesh
If you think this shit is useful for trading you must have scrambled eggs for brains