Loading ...What if the Armstrong gold bottom is actually the ULTIMATE FADE?
I got to thinking today and there has to be a relatively large contingent waiting on Armstrong’s bottom… what happens if his second benchmark comes and goes without any fireworks? Will there be a massive chase or will he just write something about the bottom being delayed? Something interesting I came across awhile ago and remembered that I saw it. I can’t speak for the validity of it but this was at zerohedge a year ago.
“*From a Martin Armstrong email to my colleague Chris Powell…
May 14, 1999
Dear Chris:
I understand your frustration that gold has been perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But to argue that it is being manipulated due to large short positions is not justified.
There is no interest in gold at this time and the central banks are all sellers. After they sell their gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that supply and your bull market will begin.
I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200 before it turns…
***
As you know now, gold never came close to taking out $200.”
What if his model is actually worth something and it is close to getting it right but is looking for too much of a down move just as in 1999? Just a bit of food for thought in these nail-biting times.
Armstrong’s computer makes the calls and the predictions…..the computer–called Socrates— predicted two possible dates for the bottom in gold–these dates were made in 2014 in the Gold Report that I paid $400 for… the computer predicted the bottom would fall either on the first week in Dec 2015 or failing that the first week in April 2016……and in fact gold bottomed on “the first benchmark at $1,045 the first week in December ….this was posted on armstrongeconomics.com’s web site that gold had in fact bottomed on the benchmark and was 1 dollar off the computer’s dollar figure for the bottom…so there is no question or confusion within the Armstrong organization about when the bottom occurred and at what price FWIW
Carolynsue, Good points but now that Gold has made a higher 6 Month High, will we now see a higher Low in April or a Lower Low that Armstrong 2nd Benchmark is predicting. If the Gold Bear has ended, it should be a Higher Low.
My reading of what Socrates said was either gold bottomed on the first benchmark OR the second (first week in April 2016)…so as gold bottomed on the first benchmark (first week in Dec 2015 the second benchmark is irrelevant and can be tossed out the window and has no bearing on gold’s price performance. After the bottom one would then look for bullish and bearish reversal targets……see below…..
According to Socrates the low in gold is in! The exact reference to this on Feb 11, 2016 at armstrongeconomics.com’s website was this: “The low came on the first benchmark right on target at 1045 ($1 from our number at 1044) and was 51.6 months from the 2011 high. The year-end closing ABOVE 1044 warned that gold was ‘not as weak as it may appear’. The top of the channel on the Monthly level where the longer-term trend is defined stands at the 1411.64 level. Gold would need to exceed that level and then find support on the top of that channel to say it is ready for prime time.”…….then these Feb 11, 2016 comments went on to say: “The truth remains intact. Gold will rise because government’s structured with endless debts will come to an end. This is the ‘rise’ in interest rates that will unfold as the FREE MARKET stops buying their paper.”
and this was also said on Feb 11, 2016: ” The Monthly Bullish stands up at 1362. That is what we need to elect to suggest that a change in trend is possible. Otherwise, be cautious. We are looking at all markets pushing to their extremes. This is the prelude to the chaos coming in 2017″
CS…that is not how I interpret it.
This is what Armstrong also said in February.
Using our What-If models, we suspect that a new high during the week of 02/29 should bring in a Weekly Bearish up to the 1170 area. If that is elected, then gold has most likely prolonged the agony and we will then look to the next Benchmark. None of the price action so far has negated the potential to penetrate the $1,000 level for a final low.
The gold cycles suggest that we should be heading for a low sometime in March/April