Gold Monthly
Now since Rambus and many others here are sniffing a good case for the Bottomz Inn ;
I sez to myself…
Fully…you are a chart geek…sitting in front of the screen all day drawing lines and fibos and parabolas
and hunting for divergences and false breakouts , watching Forks and Wolfe Waves and COTs and and and…screw it !
So lets just pull up the basic monthly Gold Chart….duh….1 chart …what a novel idea
And lets see if it makes any sense the Gold has Bottomed where it has bottomed ….on Nov 30 in the year of our lord 2015
Could that be THE Bottom ?
Well…THE Bottom cannot just be random….it will become a sacred , legendary number in the Goldosphere .
Like 35, 850 , 255 and 1920….1045?
well looky here…THIS is a very good place for THE Bottom
…………………………………………………………………………………………Bottomz INN ^
Below is the Zoomed in Ground Zero of the TSI (red circle )
Looks pretty accurate to me…
I’ll be the devils advocate here Fully. In the big run up, MACD and TSI were above price ( positive divergence ) – now they are below price (alot).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53855341631&a=446300119&r=1456069212359&cmd=print
The TSI vs the Price is now very out of whack
It will as everything doesrevert to the mean
which means Gold Drops to Zero or the TSI starts to rise faster than Gold
Take your pick
OF course the TSI is WAY down there …that is the product of the bear …not the cause of it
The tsi has turned up on this monthly for the first time in Years…is that not bullish ?
Also on your chart the TSI was below the price all thru the runoff to the top 2009 to 2011
There is no valid correlation between the level of TSI and the Price…The TSI works as an indicator
Its the turns in tsi we monitor not the absolute number
sorry, meant to reply to your reply
I understand it being out of whack and morphing into something more reasonable if it started to take off.
But, the amount of the disparity is something to take note of and is unexplainable for the bull case at this point, imho. The cross on the monthly just looks like a blip from here.
Tommy…the disparity is a product of the bear
The TSI as an indicator will go down in a bear and up in a bull
ALL indictors drop dramatically compared to price drops
They are momentum indicators
HOW could the TSI ever rise from the bottom if your theorey is correct
It is way down there so it will never rise ?
It was this level in 2001 when the bull began
now it has crossed over and has started up.this is a good clue…it means however small (everything starts small)
the momentum (TSI measures Momentum) has for the first time since 2011 started up…this IS significant
There is NO protocol anywhere to use the tsi as you are doing …as I said in 2009 the tsi went below the price and stayed there all the way to the top
NO correlation
In theory, if the momentum were to out pace the rate of price increase, you would see TSI cutting up through price.
However, we have seen momentum barely respond on the monthly scale vs price which makes me wonder how much momentum there will be going forward.
Tommy the TSI is NOT used that way
You never see it used that way
matrix never uses it that way
The TSI behind the price chart is 100% artificial
The TSI and RSI and all Momentum indicators are primarily watched for turns
Read the Matrix material on the side bar please
When there is a cross UP the trend is Bullish…when there is a cross Down the trend is bearish
The placing behind the price is absolutely unequivocally useless…You put it there to see the crosses without having to look below or above where it usually is placed
LOOK at 2009 to 2011…you have not commented on this observation
the tsi was below all the way to the top …which is meaningless
BUT it was crossed over upwards…which was bullish
IF you went bearish in 2009 because it was below price …you were KILLED
But if you used it properly…the cross over was UP…you sere bullish
Trust me you are using the TSI incorrectly…look it up …you will see no mention of it
being used on the chart co related to absolute price
sorry, meant to reply to your reply….again
Sorry, just noticed your asking me to comment on 2009-2011 so I will. Think of momentum as either a big cruise liner or a speedboat. The monthly is the Titanic which would obviously take a while to turn. Thus the price continued higher on momentum mostly, but the divergence played out eventually. You can see a head and shoulders pattern on the TSI.
A one minute chart would be a speedboat where the change in momentum and divergence can virtually turn on a dime and head south within a minute with no other indication other than TSI divergence with price. Trust me. It happens time (and can be the stat of a trend that lasts for days).
Like I have said before, this is a tricky way of using TSI which takes time to understand and use. It’s one of my standard charts I look at and keep running, along with a moving average chart, and something that I have put together and call the double stochastic chart.
Hope the analogy helps although I went overboard using the Titanic as an example. Pun intended.
I agree 100% that the TSI cross is the most useful way to use it, regardless of the “divergence”. But sometimes just the divergence is useful even when there is no cross and all other signals are bullish. Take this 120 min chart for example. All the indicators are bullish except there is negative divergence of the TSI in green.
Be interesting to see what happens Monday.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=120&b=6&g=5&id=p95350211286&a=446315699&r=1456074908089&cmd=print
Of course Divergences need to be considered BUT again…there is NO divergence in this Monthly TSI vs the price…they both went down and are no both going up
Also note divergences on monthly charts are useless for trading…they can persist for years !
For example here’s a chart where divergence hasn’t meant a dadburn thing, but the cross has called the move unerringly so far.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=30&b=9&g=5&id=p66146491883&r=1456089474043&cmd=print
I note that TSI from Tommy’s first chart tooka jump up n 1999-2001 while gold itself jumped up in 2009 and nearly gave it all back in 2000-2001 while gold stocks took a last dump in early 2001 for the ride.
This TSI crossover (of the thick line above the thin line to be non-technical) looks quite the one in 2001 but also like the one in 1999. So the jury is kind of out, I would say. Of coruse, the 1999 upmove was an odd one on the Central Bank Gold Agreement but is the current rally an odd one (on the start of the perception of Yellen’s downfall perhaps?).The CBGA was a bit of a one off bump up in the price but the story of Yellen and the Fed could perhaps run and run if economic crisis looms once again and leaves her with nowhere to run.
It’s a difficult one to call, as it always can be – but especially difficult this time because of the state of flux in which the world finds itself and the unprecedented and experimental central bank policies already underway.
First time the TSI has crossed to the upside in 41/2 years. That’s pretty convincing unless we have a 2000 scenario. I am expecting we won’t. But we shall see…