Loading ...Gold COT BEARISH!!!!!
Close of today COT data has blown to high short position for large commercial.
Commercial short increased 72,796 contracts.
Net shorts increased 131630 20% of total open interest.
Compare the data with gold bottom on 12/04/2105 to todays data:
02/12/2016 Commercial shorts 340,796 (+72850) Net Shorts+131,630, Gold close:1238
12/04/2016 Commercial shorts 225,105 (-6370) Net Shorts +7050, Gold close:1084
Similar COT data was in may 2015 top.
looks like a retest of the 1263 high, then rollover
Yes Price volume analysis will dictate that retest of high with low volume and close below the high.
we may correct, for next week, to bleed off the excess. but do not expect much more. use the opportunity to re-load.
I agree. Want to reload the one sold for profit.
From the 2008 bottom to the Sept 2011 top, how did Gold react to all the Bearish COTS?
It didn’t give a monkey’s.
Anyway, how does the open interest compare to the period 2008-2011 when it was at stellar highs? I don’t know: I am just asking.
One point I do remember was that when gold hit $1025/1030 in early 2008 and took its plunge to $680 by Oct/Nov 2008 partly during the Lehman financial crisis and then it rebounded, I recall the COTs as it was about to reclaim $1000 in late 2009. They were at records before gold made a new high above $1000. The price still went to $1224 by the end of 2009. It all depends on the psychology of the market.
I was not interested then. I just got interested to see how commercial shorts positions compares with gold price. So far so good.
There are some differences on the price chart.
1) Price has blown through resistances at $1180, $1191, $1200, $1224, maybe more.
2) Price has gone above an intermediate peak at $1191.
However I was going to ask if anyone had COT data and you have it! I wondered if it would be new speculators or short covering that created this spike. So it’s new speculators then apparently.
My pitchfork structure could allow a fall even to $1080 and still have a chance at being bullish for the future. However I have some failed Wolfe wave charts from elsewhere that have had false breakouts followed by plunges so I am not certain at all.
If gold price drops below 1080 then according to EW count gold bull count will be in jeopardy. Gold has turn in to a multi year bull trend now. High of 2011 will be violated.