Loading ...Fully please help us with Armstrong’s latest post
The talk about town is that gold can see more upside if rates decline. That seems to be at odds with the view that gold is a hedge against inflation since lower rates reflects more deflation. The confusion seems to really be just in the relationships. Gold is rising simply because the stock market has declined. Nevertheless, the key area remains $1208. We need to see this exceeded on a weekly closing basis to imply some sustainability short-term, but keep in mind this may be merely postponing the inevitable for the meltdown appears economically to be pushed off into 2017 moving into 2020. From a timing perspective, caution is advisable as we enter next week.
I started composing a reply before I realized you were only asking for Fully’s help….but I’ll send it anyways haha Translation gained by using Armstrong’s last few gold posts which are consistent with this current post you are wondering about, so here’s my translation: The current rally in gold is not due to the start of a new bull market, but due simply to the stock market tumbling. When gold’s new bull market starts it will not be because of stock market weakness. Gold will see new lows this year, and now is not the time to purchase mining stocks as we will still see some of the biggest names go bankrupt, but thankfully Socrates can tell us which ones we should buy/avoid. Next year is when the big economic meltdown starts for govt debt and banking problems etc, and that’s when gold will start rocketing upwards as an official end to the gold bear market. For this current rally in gold to suggest a temporary bottom we need over 1208 on a weekly closing basis, but even if we get that it doesn’t mean gold has started a new bull market because that officially should begin next year, and we are still looking for a new low this year. The gold weekly array shows from a timing perspective that today may have been a panic high pop up, we may churn sideways mostly this week or make moderately higher intraday highs, and next week on Monday could be when this seasonal spring bounce makes it clear this was nothing but a bear market rally, and breaks, and starts heading down to new lows which could be as soon as late next month, so let’s see how gold behaves over the next week as we need to be cautious on the long side. So far gold looks like business as usual for the seasonal rally as it hasn’t taken out any significant resistance to portend a new bull market has started (just look at how much higher gold was last year in its Spring seasonal rally), and also for the fact that this gold rally is simply because of safe haven buying due to the stock market drop. Remember, the higher the rally the bigger the potential fall. Gold has been unable to penetrate the 1000 level so far since our last early Dec benchmark date which was the earliest it could have arrived, and unable to give us the desired gold/silver ratios to confirm a long-term bottom, so this veryyyy steep rally could be exactly what we need to produce a capitulation bottom by coming tumbling down with enough energy to penetrate that 1000 dollar level. For those who think the gold bull market has begun, they are misled into thinking that due to an improper understanding of the relationships gold will need to begin a true revived gold secular bull market–a crashing stock market is the wrong relationship for what will cause gold’s new bull market to emerge. Gold’s new bull won’t reveal its time to shine until the characters are all positioned, we have to look at all the markets from a global perspective, and they say the bear roars again this year to enable us to buy the new low, nonetheless we will have a higher yearly closing this year than last, and next year the bull will take us to greener pastures in a multi-year stampede up the gold mountain, so for now just trade the charts and remember we are still in a bear market.
Nice! well said!
For crying out loud, no wonder my head hurts trying to digest all this stuff by the end of the day…
“the view that gold is a hedge against inflation ”
That view is out there. But anyone who has examined this with care knows that’s not what underpins its gains.
Gold is rising because confidence in govts, central banks, and currencies is under assault.
Gold is STILL a competing currency, even if its been ‘officially’ dissed.
After all those folks paid $400 for the GOLD REPORT in which socrates said that gold would bottom either the first week of December 2015 (and someone at Armstrong’s site said that gold had in fact
bottomed on that benchmark–and gold’s rise starting the first week in Dec 2015 does seem, so far , to confirm the bottom in the first week of Dec….and then Socrates said that if gold did not bottom the first week in Dec 2015 then the first week in April 2016 would be the low and gold would not likely see any further declines after the first week in April AND NOW MA IS COMING OUT SAYING THAT GOLD’S BOTTOM WILL BE ‘NEXT YEAR’ WHICH IS 2017….how absurd is this? either Socrates work can be trusted or it can’t be trusted…MA’s whole system is predicated on the reliability of Socrates’ predictions and now MA has tossed those out the window and come up with some more dates and figures and added another year—2017. Armstrong is losing all credibility with me…even socrates said that gold was in bull trend unless it fell to 1047.40 intraday…good grief—now I feel how Fully must have felt when he was commenting on MA–utterly unreliable—totally contradicting what his computer has come out and said—I’d believe anything Socrates says but Armstrong has lost all credibility with me after this interpretation of what is going on in the gold market
that is complete rubbish….there was nothing in the Gold Report requiring gold to go to $1000 before a low could be considered met—that is not what Socrates said at all in the gold report
per MA Feb 3 Gold has met all but one of the required resistance figures: “the band of resistances begins at 1156 followed by 1170, 1175,1184 and now the only one not yet met is 1208….gold closed on the week at 1189.60 (or that is the figure I get when I look at $gold for the weekly at stockcharts…unless MA is looking at the arrays of Socrates then I don’t trust what he is saying or maybe Sir Weston’s summary is off especially with the idea that gold has to penetrate $1,000 before a bottom can be considered in—that is not at all what Socrates said and he is the only one that can be trusted IMHO
Miss Carolynsue, Don’t get too worked up over my translation! Haha. …. It’s only a translation, and could be off. …. My translation meant to say that gold will make a new low and bottom this year, but the bull will start next year—Not that a new low happens next year (After a bottom is made it takes a while for confirmation, and then for the train to really rip) Other folks should offer their own translations!! …his most recent post imho is saying this rally isn’t the new bull kicking off, but just safe haven buying due to the stock market—but fear of govt is what will cause the new bull he says. His arrays shows feb should top this rally, and now he has warned us twice in two diff posts that feb is dangerous for bulls. Also, an attendee at a conference Armstrong did a couple weeks ago (this year whenever it was) where Armstrong skyped in to the audience says that Armstrong said gold will see a new low this year. Regardless of armstrongs uncertainly/flipping and whatever Socrates says, armstrongs most recent forecast was to those attendees where he says new lows coming this year. …and instead of 2015.75 being bond collapse carnage it seems to be put off till 2017 which is what will give gold major bull juice. Just my undemanding of him! Please share opposing translations, anybody!!
To me Amrstrong has lost all credibility….ALL credibility…he speaks out of both sides of his mouth–nothing he says should be given any weight anymore…and I have been a big supporter of his but this is ridiculous….his company is now selling information…this is a new thing….Armstrong Economics is now offering two versions of what Socrates thinks is going on and I think that MA telling folks for free what is going on would be a conflict of interest—why pay when MA is telling everyone what is going to happen…that is the only explanation I can come up with for MA’s comments which do not jibe at all with what Socrates had to say about the bottom in gold…. I think short of buying Socrates output and learning to read the arrays is the only ONLY way to know what is going on…and passing around info about MA’s off the cuff comments is just going to lead to trading mistakes ….the miners were up almost–ALMOST 50% on their first leg out of the bottom on Jan 19th–that is unheard of in the history of the miners–the average gain out of bottoms is more like 30%–can anyone show a 50% gain in the miners over the last 4 years before these last 3 or 4 weeks? NO they can’t.
Unless Socrates “said” it I wouldn’t bet a nickle on information coming from MA at this point given his company’s decision to sell information –which is great–but it also means the company can’t offer for free what a lot of people are paying for….anyway sorry I went off the rails yesterday….
Can’t say I disagree….I didn’t know/realize Socrates had said gold had made the big bottom already.
What socrates said in January is that gold was in a bull trend unless it declined to 1047.4 intraday…..and someone at Armstrong’s site sometime at the end of Dec right before Christmas said that gold had “bottomed on the benchmark” which would have meant: bottomed the first week in Dec -because that was the first date that Socrates said we could expect a bottom in gold…..so gold’s bottom appears to have been 1050 thereabouts which would jibe with Socrates later comments–comments made in january that gold was in a bull trend unless it declined below 1047.4…It looks like the miners bottomed on Jan 19th so a few weeks after gold which was different than in 2000 and 2001 when the miners bottomed first in Nov and then gold in Feb 2001—-
so socrates predicted a bottom could be reached the first week in Dec’15 or at the latest the first week in April’16 and then someone at Armstrong’s site in the daily commentary wrote that gold had bottomed on the benchmark (even though MA came out with all kinds of wild and crazy, confusing non sensical rantings that seemed to say “NOT SO” and that was followed up inJan by Socrates saying gold was in a bull trend unless it went below 1047.4 intraday
it looks like gold TODAY is up over $30.00 and will exceed the 1208 weekly closing that was the last of the “band of resistances” MA was saying gold had to clear to show the likelihood of a sustainable advance (or words to that effect from MA’s Feb 3 post)
I understand, but his recent posts clearly say that exceeding 1208 does not meant the bottom is in. My interpretation is based on his collective posts lately. He has had several gold posts this month. He says that Socrates must be used with the arrays: Socrates determines targets and directions etc, but the arrays determine a change in trend. Soooo he says feb must close above 1208 to continue this trend to suggest this is more than a bear rally. Daily pivots can change and it was recently changed to 1220 from 1208. Most recently he said that if this week gold exceeds 1208 (early week high) on Wednesday it should continue to run till Friday, and Friday/Monday is when we have a change in weekly trend predicted by the array. Sooo if we get that change in trend he thinks that’s the pendulum having taken gold to the extreme for final plunge to lows and once we drop below 1147ish we will have elected bearish reversal so Socrates will then say we are now in a bear trend again. …. So I think what we have here is a case of will his expectations play out? …also, And I agree with you if we had Simply followed Socrates and the array we would have caught this rally, but Armstrong had warned against the rally saying it was not worth trying for because a huge crash could come at any time in the gold sector.
Andddddd Now I see Armstrongs two gold updates today, and yeah he seems to be hinting that his new gold reports will have shifted everything to 2017 for the low. …. I remember him stating in his last report that 2015 would be the lowest annual closing, and 2016 might have the lowest intraday low. ——Now he is using the exact same language again except changing it to 2016 and 2017 🙁 ….. While also leaving himself open to saying that the low could still happen in late March early April of this year. 🙁 Uh, he is making it awfully hard to make any money if using his advice to know whether to get into a swing or not! Ya, Should probably just take Socrates & the array and give his own opinions value equal to a grain of salt when he talks about the fundamentals—What made him miss this whole rally and what is making him push everything off another year is fundamentals. His interpretation of fundamentals. Fundamentals always screw people up bc They are opinion, and he himself says never follow opinion. So I guess anytime Armstrong talks we need to know if he is giving his opinion (Because he says don’t trust it), or if it’s what Socrates & the array actually say 😉