Goldtent TA Paradise

Gold COT Still bullish

1. DaveintheUK says:

   February 6, 2016 - 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm

   I can’t get over the excitement that there is as gold is making this upmove. There is too much to be comfortable. It’s different from the excitement on the 2014 and 2015 early year upmoves though. This is more surprise excitement rather than relief. I sense it in the way the pundits are writing and talking about it. It is not quite the same psychology as last year and the year before. I do like the price action when set against the long slow parabolic downtrend of the last 2+ years. It has broken out of that for the moment. However, I wonder if we are going to get a grand fakeout. Time will tell. Maybe the rest of the markets are falling apart sufficiently to give gold a bid.

   I am looking through a few charts of other things to see if I can find a comparison to this gold action. I already saw some shorter term patterns in the US dollar over the past 6 years (especially in 2011) to compare to this, funnily enough.

   • neildavis2002 says:

     February 6, 2016 - 1:16 pm at 1:16 pm

     The reason for the difference in the reaction to this gold surge is based on the prevailing view, and correct view in my opinion, that the stock market is rolling over into a new bear market, and that the Fed is therefore going to scale back on rate hikes for the rest of the year, possibly even being forced to enter into another massive QE program in order to support some systemically important banks that are beginning to look quite shaky. They don’t want another Lehman moment on their hands. Remember, this entire stock bull was built upon the shifting sands of ZIRP and QE. There was no foundation to it. Now that the morphine drip has been shut off, the patient is going into withdrawal. It won’t be pretty.

   • Bikoo99 says:

     February 6, 2016 - 2:59 pm at 2:59 pm

     Yes it is different this time. There are two additional clue to the turn. PM sector being in bear trend since 2011 two ratios to watch their turn. One of them has turn and declared the end of the down move. I am watching the other one. I believe it has already turn on monthly.
     They are : Miners to gold ratio and Silver to gold ratio.
     XAU to gold ratio has been on the forum. Check it out.