Loading ...Sam’s EW for Gold … bigger picture
This is Sam’s EW for gold, from MexicoMike … dated late Dec …
I’m on board with the larger degree path … the blue III, and the ABC path to blue IV. IV could easily become much more complex, however.
I will defer to Sam on his views at the lower degrees …. he openly expresses the view that prospective counts at lower degrees are subject to change.
To those who don’t look at EW charts … space constraints often mean that either price or time targets are not “to scale”. I think they might be here though.
To those asking me, or telling me, that the low might be … sure SOME kind of low is possible here …. but for now the miners are seeing something more vexing.
And the orange degree five wave count looks very forced to me … and so I wouldn’t by any means take the a of 4 target as a given. That’s the most suspect part of this count.
Indeed, so is the entire orange degree level within green A.
I’m more inclined to suspect that we get EXTENSIONS to the black 5 that we “just completed”. Ie, that black 5 becomes just a smaller 1 of that same but incomplete 5 which targets well below current levels. The orange 1 and 2 are just subwaves of the early corrective legs.
Interesting chart. The timing doesn’t fit in with the ‘traditional’ US dollar up and down cycles of the past 45 years, not to say that they will continue. Maybe they won’t continue as the credit bubble unwinds if it does.
2016 should be a dollar high and 2024 a low then 2030-32 a high then 2040 a low. So I was looking for a gold bottom wither here 2016-17 and then maybe a rally to 2024 then another leg down into 2030-32. That would be like the bear market timing of 1980-1999 (cf 2011-2030). The maybe a real new bull market into 2040 as the USD has another down cycle.
Possibly the 2016-2014 dollar bear if it comes at all might be a chance for new highs on gold but that is starting to look like fantasyland at the moment. Maybe we are being too bearish though.
The uber deflationists would say that the whole 1970-2011 bull market in gold and everything else is being unwound, it might take even longer and push a real bull in gold out to the 2050s, with two dollar downcycles failing to create a new high in gold. The last bear market had one missed cycle in 1987. I can’t see how the whole house of cards of financial assets could possibly last that long. Something has to give to take even the US dollar towards hyperinflating before then, surely?
The dollar cycles perhaps looking like this?
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/breakout-from-long-term-us-dollar-bear.html
I don’t follow cycles work. I prefer waves and their fractals for a variety of reasons.
As for the dollar, it fits the EW thinking out there, from what I can tell.
Dollar up (as debt repayment pressures build) in 3, dollar down in wave 4 correction (gold relief rally B … and EM, CRB etc).
Then detonation when the $ rises in 5 — the 2017 or 2018 version of Lehman … you know who I mean.
That’s when bail ins become worldwide and all the assets William White refers to suddenly turn up saying “and its GONE”.
After that, the hyperinflation.
Interesting wave count.
How does Sam know that corrective wave B (green) will be a triangle? Corrective wave B in flat can take any one of 23 structures.
Over all wave projection is similar to others I noticed.
OH my gosh, this EW projection is shocking….my analysis says this isn’t going to happen in a million/zillion years lol………. I bet China and Russia are going to be furious when they find out that all that money they have spent stockpiling gold bullion over the last few decades was just money down the drain but on the other hand the women in India will be able to buy vast quantities of gold necklaces.
LOL!!! In my life time I will never see gold at 3500 to 5000….10000 per this EW count. EW has brought me to reality from Gold bug crowd.
Talking about Indian bride/ladies… In India they value gold in terms of gram/oz/tola only. Measure of wealth is only how many tola one has not in fiat currency. They never talk in terms of local currency.
We got only one chance to make it in PM when gold bottoms and goes in corrective wave upto 1500 in wave B load up juniors and micro juniors. That’s it and sell at the top.
Good luck.
No,no,no this is not the way it is going to happen IMHO….gold/miners/PM are in a secular BULL market that started in 2000….then in 2011 PM began a cyclical BEAR . The DOW. S&P et al started a secular BEAR in 2000 and then in 2009 the SM began a cyclical BULL which is dying before our very eyes so that the secular BEAR can resume and the PM secular BULL is about to resume as it’s cyclical bear is dying. These secular bull/bear trends last 17 to 18 years (Adam Hamilton’s Long Wave Valuations II) so PM have 2 to 3 more years to finish their secular Bulls and LIKE ALL
secular bulls they will end when EVERYBODY YOU KNOW AND EVERYBODY THEY KNOW ARE RECOMMENDING GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS TO BUY—That is how ALL SECULAR BULLS end—everybody is bullish and everybody is buying mining stocks and recommending mining stocks–just like the DOW/S&P in 1999/2000 ended their secular bulls when EVERYBODY was buying and recommending dot.com stocks–EVERYBODY buying dot.com stocks and that’s when you know it is time to sell…just like JP Morgan (or one of his buddies at the time) said in 1929 IT IS TIME TO SELL when the shoeshine boy recommended stocks for him to buy…so that is exactly how this PM secular bull will end…read the article by Jeff Clark : “What To The Moon Will Look Like”..there is no rush like a gold rush and the gains will be hair raising to say the least
EW is not always correct, Robert Prechter had been calling for a grand super cycle top in the stock market for the past 17 years, is it possible? yes, but this whole game is about timing. Prechter may get his grand super cycle top only after the market blew through what he called as a wave 5 top, I think you will see $3,000-$5,000 gold, the question is what will it be worth? what will anything be worth after these Keynesian CB moronic bufoons get done?
Well if one has a $536,000 mortgage like I do—gold at $5000/oz ( Martin Armstrong said so fwiw) then I can pay that off
I forgot to say the 100 ounces I have will pay off the
Mortgage
Don’t forget that the policies always favor the bankers, there are many things they can do to negate that stash, I have a stash also but the dark thought that keeps crossing my mind is a 90% tax on PM so cashing out incurs too much pain or a reset with a re-evaluation in housing assets that keeps the debt ratio in balance and in the bankers favor, Look what they have done in past peso re-evaluations in Mexico. We are in unchartered waters but the politicians will always do the bankers bidding, I hope it is as easy as cashing in the PM but mortgage contracts get rewritten in times of national financial emergencies. Banker=blood sucker
what did they do in Mexico?…I’ve spent a lot of time in Mexico and I know that peso devaluations relative to the US dollar are painful for my friends down is San Miguel de Allende
If that happens then one oz of gold will pay for the entire treasury bonds (by Prof Antal Feket and Austrian Economist).
When Antal Fekete speaks I listen! what do you mean when you say “the entire treasury bonds?
Robert Prechter’s newsletter came in dead last over a 10 year period when compared to 25 other financial newsletter: “Out of 32 portfolios and 25 newsletters, The Elliot Wave theorist came last for the period 1988-1997 with an annualized return of 5.84%; during that same time period the S&P had annualized returns of 18.04%…the Elliot Wave Theorist underperformed the broad market averages by 25% per year since 1985: $100,000 invested according to Prechter’s advice in 1985 would be worth a mere $1,700 by May 2009”—-this is info from Hulbert Financial Digest that tracked the performance of many financial newsletters’ trading advice
So what’s your point?
Elliott Wave concepts were developed by RN Elliott, not Prechter.
The market follows the structures outlined by Elliott. How to READ the structures is another matter.
If you take the time to look around, Haver, Caldaro, DanEric and others often read things differently.
My approach … as I’ve said …. doesn’t use EW. But I use MY analysis to select the EW patterns that accord with my read on the charts.
So you can keep hitting on Prechter’s straw man all day and all night til the cows come home, but that doesn’t put the slightest dent in the value that I see in them week in and week out as I way of COMMUNICATING my read on the charts.
That’s all I’m trying to do.
In 2025, when gold is at 500 or so, you might look back at this point in time and wish you’d begun to rethink your religion.
It is interesting to say the least in terms of putting together these EW patterns. I mean, Avi Gilbert who is probably the hottest Elliott Wave technician at the moment is calling for 25,000 gold half a century out and the bottom this year. So many ways to read EW analysis, you are correct.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/avi-gilburt-doubles-down-gold-is-going-to-25000-2015-06-12
Here is his article… I don’t have his long term gold count, but it appears that the HUI is bottoming in the 100 range relatively soon and will be in the 500s come 2025 according to his EW count on the HUI index.
I see Avi’s work daily.
Thing is, with SPX, he’s been VERY bullish … all through last year … even through this decline. With targets of 2500 spx eventually. He’s evidently a very reluctant bear. Just in the last few days … he’s decided to take a few days off to regroup and has limited his intraday posts. On the other hand, our (small) group began shifting to a LT bearish outlook last summer on the monthly MACD sell signal and the quarterly topping posture. Is there still room for a WTFRFH to take out all the early bears? Absolutely. But Caldaro in 08 and Avi in 2015 were both overly reticent to turn bearish. My work plays off Jack Chan, who has a very simple system using MACD and trendlines, from high degrees on down. He flipped to LT bear watch last year too, waiting for confirmation from a trend line break. (Some of his work is at the Stockcharts public board.) MY POINT being, that if you use EW on the micro degrees, you’d damn well better use OTHER tools to make sure you have an honest and reliable take on the forest. Because the local stuff can give you a misleading sense of validation with respect to your larger degree counts. Which is where the really big mistakes are made. The bulls are clinging to hope here (SPX); another leg down would crack a lot of egos and kill some PFs. Henry Costanzo is in that group too, I think. Don’t put all your eggs in one TA basket. Back to Avi — I obviously think he’s missing the PMs forest, even though he’s been very good on this decline to date. (And yes, I have Avi’s LT gold count going out 50yrs … at some point I’ll post if I think there’s reason for it. But since it doesn’t go BACK far enough, I can’t remotely endorse it.) End of message.
my point is : EW is too arcane and open to personal opinion for outsiders to even follow a discussion of it and when you discuss it you almost always prove my point by dissing or disparaging a certain person’s interpretation or taking exception to someone’s EW predictions or methods of analysis….there just is too much personal interpretation of the method
to make any sense of what a practioner is saying at any given time..it just seems like a small club of practioners who spend a lot of time looking at and evaluating the work of other practioners especially the “hot” ones and critiquing, judging them and their particular method of interpreting the founder’s concepts …..and they can continue to be wrong for many years
My reply was in response to your repeated (fourth time now?) attempts to condemn ANY AND ALL EW analysis, simply because Prechter demonstrated his failure to recommend and use good money management tools with his EW. That’s an ego thing, and there’s no room for that in a trader’s world. If EW is not your cup of tea, leave well enough alone and allow others to evaluate the merits of my analysis for themselves. You seem to be condemning it because its running contrary to your investment thesis. And that’s rubbing you the wrong way.
EW is hardly arcane in its form. And the lingo is no more involved than the chartology favored around here. I doubt you picked that up overnight either. As far as personal interpretations, Carolyn, that’s intrinsic to ALL technical analysis. And if you haven’t come to that realization already …. I don’t know what to say. People trade and invest in different ways and use different types of analysis and time frames. And most people don’t even spell out their stops, timeframes, etc. The idea is to match up your analysis with your style. Different strokes for different folks.
There’s one other thing … MY tools are entirely OBJECTIVE. I use crossovers on multiple time frames to tell me where to park my funds, and when. A lot like the Chan example I posted but in four dimensions, not one. Then I marry that to long term wave patterns, with my fundamental knowledge of international finance woven into the background.
So please … if you don’t like it. Skip past it and stop condemning my analysis — as presented using EW — simply because it doesn’t suit your style.
Elliot Wave not Prechter Wave
Must be something to it…a lot of fine TA folks are making a living using EW for trades
It’s one thing to do technical analysis on a 3 month head and shoulders that breaks but predicting all these directional changes and price objectives a decade out into the future just seems absolutely ridiculous.
Chase has told its safety deposit customers that they CANNOT store coins or cash in their safety deposit boxes at all, ever as of 2016…the war on cash starts with safety deposit boxes
JPM Chase may write it down but they have zero idea what is in the box.
did you know that there is a $5billion class lawsuit brought by owners of safety deposit boxes held in California banks against the State of California that stole the contents of safety deposit boxes after demanding the banks open the boxes…the legislators in Sacramento kept changing the laws governing when safety deposit boxes
could be deemed abandoned and thus allowing the State the right to confiscate the contents
Martin Armstrong has said that by 2016 folks should take coins and cash out of their safety deposit boxes…I’m almost certain that 2016 was the year– the hunt for money by the political class will make it unsafe to store cash and coins… California stole jewelry, stock certificates even from active customers who had paid their safety deposit box fees…some of those customers sued the banks and a settlement was reached…The Comptroller of the State of California admitted the crime had been
done
Well we have a new record 27 comments on one little post
Pedro has the new record …by far
Congrats Pedro