For EagleSeagle – UVXY 1
Greetings!
First off, $SPX looks just plain dreadful to me and the target I have is approximately 1750.
I still think, given the circumstances, that $VIX is quite low. A closing price of 27 on Friday just seems low to me but
that’s probably because Kevin Henry and Simon Potter at the NY Fed Trading Desk are desperately selling vol. I
understand vol pro’s may think looking at vol charts is nonsense but it’s the best I’ve got at the moment so I’m running
with it. $VIX’s weekly and monthly charts both look in a bullish posture to me, quite a marked one actually. The
quarterly chart screams a rising vol environment.
In terms of UVXY, I have a H&S derived target from SVXY but I’m not happy with it – I think it could be significantly too low:
I thought the monthly UVXY chart was interesting from a ‘$hits & giggles’ perspective:
If I have more time today (I almost definitely won’t), there’s more I have to say in terms of $VIX’s term structure going inverted again,
various divergences, credit cycle, (all courtesy of ZH), but I just wanted to get this out there for now.
Excelent work! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-10/mid-east-massacre-equity-markets-plunge-bahrain-kuwait
Stocks are melting down in the mid east at this time. Tomorrow will be maybe the “day”. Let´s see.
Welcome Jenkinslane…Thanks for your feedback and the other charts shared. Charting UVXY long term is futile due to long term contango decay–I have read loses 12 percent a month? UVXY has been creating a base around 25 bucks, and this has been a good entry point the past several weeks. As your charts convey, the tide is turning on the VIX. I have tried to create 60 minute charts that are as accurate as possible for charting purposes. Hope you find these useful and profitable. This is a PURE momentum play, use the moving averages. i.e. use the 15 minute 13/34 EMA crosses to determine entry and exit points supported by the 60 minute and daily charts which are currently both bullish. FOCUS, AVOID all distraction. While the trade can be HIGHLY profitable, one can lose much too. Also, make a chart with SPX pivots and keep those in the back of your head to help time the trade. All the best with your trading endeavors!