Loading ...Bonds TLT Cycle Update
Peekaboo. TLT just closed above the long term cycle downtrend out of the Feb 2015 top.
Unless this is an FBO, this looks promising for a place to park some capital (TLT, UBT or TMF, which can be a widow maker — At least TLT pays you some interest in a downtrend). TMF and UBT are trading vehicles but longer term investors could hold TLT until the Yearly Cycle uptrend breaks to the downside (see 2nd chart).
Here is a 2nd chart showing the last 3 Yearly Cycle Lows for Bonds (TLT). Also a speculative Green Cycle fork showing a possible YC price channel. The Fork needs further validation but the Blue Yearly Cycle uptrend lines do not. The current YC uptrend is still very much intact.
One would think that TLT will rally here, if the Stock Market continues its sell off well into 2016. Typically this is what happens in Bear Markets BUT this is the year of Armstrong’s Sovereign Debt crisis (SDC). That said, my expectations are that the SDC, will unfold in Europe, EEM, Japan and China first before coming back to the US.
If so, TLT should be a safe haven until such time that it is not. Watch the last Blue Trend line on my chart closely and bail when it breaks to the downside.
