Loading ...Gold Cycle Update
By my count, we are in week 6 of a new Intermediate Cycle now that Gold has topped 1088 and broken above it’s Bull Flag. During the Bear, the BMR uptrends have topped between week 8-12 (ICs last, on average 21-26 weeks although they have been running shorter over the last year).
Here are a couple of charts that shows Gold’s BMRs during the Bear and where they have topped out. Note that the May 2015 BMR only lasted 6 weeks and was the shortest. The last three BMRs lasted 11, 9 and 12 weeks to the upside.
Here are a couple of older Gold IC Cycle charts that illustrate this.
How bullish will this Gold IC be? Hard to tell as “Nobody Cares.” (Must watch video after the market closes).
” looks like we have one more leg down to go in the commodities complex and I am guessing this leg will be the most violent one, and that it will represent the final deflationary wave during this cycle. ”
That’s how I’ve been reading my charts.
I’ll certainly call attention to it if I begin to see things differently.
I’m not a buyer here … of anything CRB … but I respect the work others are doing on the relative merits of the juniors.
Pity there’s not a leveraged GLDX fund out there.
In the energy sector, I think we need to start seeing highly public BK’s first. Today’s swoon in FCG (nat gas producers) to new lows tells me those are still ahead.
I agree this is likely just a BMR, however, I can’t recall the last time I saw the Bollinger Bands this narrow on Gold. Usually this leads to a sharp move (short covering rally?) Been in UGLD and selective Miners for about a week.
Staying away from Silver due to the Stock Market sell off. The Miners may also struggle if stock can’t find their footing. UGLD looks good as a flight to safety.
The second chart is quite interesting. It reminds me of a chasrt that I stumbled across whilst trying to find something onliut about Alan Andres and ROger babson. There was a chart, probably an Andrews one where there was a formation that used many intersecting lines to draw on a target.
I found it – it’s called the horn of platy formation on one illustration. He used it on silver in the mid 1970s and soybeans to target a massive selloff.
If you can make the six blue lines on your lower chart intersect at some price, maybe that is the final bear market target for gold? Visually it is not perfect but it might indicate $700-$800?
My typing was not too good there. Alan Andrews of course! Horn of plenty formation, plenty of grief in this case!
The old Alan Andrews charts were here:
http://www.trading-naked.com/alan_andrews_course_1.htm#ar10
and:
http://trading-naked.com/alan_andrews_course_1.htm#ar44a
scroll down to Soybean Oil (1964 chart) ^
Also:
http://trading-naked.com/alan_andrews_course_1.htm#ar47a
and the second chart underneath it that has the fans. Also Soybean oil crash (1964?)
AR46 has a different soybeans chart, action and reaction lines:
http://trading-naked.com/alan_andrews_course_1.htm#ar46