Goldtent TA Paradise

Dow Industrials Super grand wave iv

1. Carolynsue says:

   January 1, 2016 - 7:31 am at 7:31 am

   I use to subscribe to Ron Rosen’s newsletter and I thought I remembered his thinking that the Dow (or one of the SM indicators like the $SPX) was going to be rolling over and falling out of that megaphone pattern but not so he now says. I also see the “E” at the bottom rail suggesting a decline or maybe the decline comes AFTER the completion of this current UP move….now I get it….thanks

   • Bikoo99 says:

     January 1, 2016 - 7:55 am at 7:55 am

     For many years he has been showing long term chart of Dow from 1900 to current. If I can find the chart I will post that one soon. He has not changed his stance on Dow/SPX going down.

     Now may be May be the time has finally come. Credit spreads are taking the lead.

     The current market has been in up trend since 1982. If some one plots the quarterly one can notice how high??

     • Carolynsue says:

       January 1, 2016 - 8:39 am at 8:39 am

       some analysts (Adam Hamilton for one) believe the Dow’s bull was from 1982 to 2000 and the Dow was 11,722 in 2000 and the Dow went nowhere for 11 years–the Dow low was 10,604 in 2011 and a bit higher by the end of the year but essentially in nominal terms the Dow did nothing for 11 years and the Dow has had a cyclical bull phase that started in 2009 so the Dow is up 1.48 % : 17,425/11,750= 1.48 in 15 years …more the kind of return one would expect in a secular bear market not a bull market….the Dow Secular Bull started in 1982 at 777 and ended January 2000 at 11,722.98 and the return for this secular bull was 1,500% : 11,722/777= 1,500%

     • Carolynsue says:

       January 1, 2016 - 8:47 am at 8:47 am

       Ok Now I get it…Rosen is saying that after this decline (wave iv?)is complete then the Dow will have a multiyear rise to new highs which makes sense given the 17 year bull and 17 year bear markets in one Long Wave Valuation (Adam Hamilton) and as the Dow has been in its secular bear for 15 years (started in 2000) then it has 2 possibly years to go before the secular bear is over and its next secular bull begins…is that what Rosen is saying essentially

2. EagleSeagle says:

   January 1, 2016 - 9:39 am at 9:39 am

   Clarification please. The DOW goes to IV now over 2 years before going to new highs?

   • Bikoo99 says:

     January 1, 2016 - 2:20 pm at 2:20 pm

     Yes that is the interpretation of this wave count. Cycle wave iv needs to be a complete structure before going to new high.

3. pedro_deleon says:

   January 1, 2016 - 10:42 am at 10:42 am

   RR’s wave IV is everything from 2000 forward. McHugh has the same count (but mislabeled). Its his Jaws of Death megaphone.
   In both cases, an ABCDE triangle wave IV. McDoo screws up and puts A at 2000. It belongs at 2002-3. His EW skills aren’t the best.

   Rosen’s work is VERY familiar to the folks in my group. He relies on Delta points. I wouldn’t put too much faith in him. Now he also had an associate he teamed up with (Alistair ___ ) who was quite good. But he doesn’t post often.

   Carolyn … I remember telling my bosses at work in 2000 and 2001 that this was the start of a 17yr bear market. But at the time I didn’t suspect it would be a triangle with higher highs in the mix. As for E down, to lower lows, I wouldn’t rule it out but its not my primary count. I’m looking at a smaller IV off 2009, as an ABC with 1867 as the A. C will make new lows into the 1600-1700s. Then we ramp when Yellen relents. If you’re a gold bug, you’d better hope I’m right. That low will mark the dollar top, and CRB lows. If Yellen does not, and curls up into a ball like a rolly polly, then we could see SPX 500 I suppose. It wouldn’t take much to set off a debt default cascade and I am looking for that at some point in time. But I suspect AG/Bernank/Jellin have extended the 17 years with their ploys and that implosion comes after one final rally in V of 2009 off 1700ish.

   • Carolynsue says:

     January 1, 2016 - 11:35 am at 11:35 am

     My confidence in Elliot Wave Analysis gets more and more shaken the more you refer to the practitioners of it and how variable their techniques/counts/results are….LOL..So any time someone starts using Elliot Wave counts my eyes glaze over because as I know NOTHING about Elliot Wave and everyone who practices it seems to have his/her own spin on it I can’t calibrate what they are saying…and now you say Rosen’s work isn’t up to snuff either….Oh well

   • Carolynsue says:

     January 1, 2016 - 11:35 am at 11:35 am

     My confidence in Elliot Wave Analysis gets more and more shaken the more you refer to the practitioners of it and how variable their techniques/counts/results are….LOL..So any time someone starts using Elliot Wave counts my eyes glaze over because as I know NOTHING about Elliot Wave and everyone who practices it seems to have his/her own spin on it I can’t calibrate what they are saying…and now you say Rosen’s work isn’t up to snuff either….Oh well

     • Bikoo99 says:

       January 1, 2016 - 2:09 pm at 2:09 pm

       Ron Rosen is not to snuff is because he ignores basic EW rules. He has been calling this a expanded flat but the current wave is clearly an expanding triangle since 2000. It is a huge corrective wave iv. Cycle wave iii ended at 2000yr top. According to EW there are two types of triangles. 1) contracting and 2) expanding. Both have A,B,C,D and E waves.
       I bought a book on EW: Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost and Prechter 10th edition. It is a remarkable book. All the rules and guidelines are out lined in a simple foramt.

       This will be first time SM will be going down and PM will be going higher. Once traders realizes which sector is going higher: watch out the fire works then.

   • Bikoo99 says:

     January 1, 2016 - 3:10 pm at 3:10 pm

     Alistair is no longer with him. He split several years ago??? Yes Alistair was RR’s EW analyst.

4. pedro_deleon says:

   January 1, 2016 - 11:59 am at 11:59 am

   EW is the best SINGLE tool out there, imo. It outlines a discrete range of possibilities to expect AND where each of them can be invalidated.
   Its NOT deterministic. And when you look at different counts and results, that’s to be expected. Most of these guys publishing for $ don’t spell out their ALTs.
   EW says basically one thing. Trend moves are in five waves (and often extend). Corrections are in three.
   And its fractal. So telescoping from 1min to monthly charts, you see the same thing.
   Rosen said blend Gann, Delta and EW to put it all together. Unfortunately his turn windows often seemed (after the fact) to invert. LOL.
   Caldaro has his Objective EW. But the objectivity if it exists, is a trade secret. I like that idea in principle.
   And my own (non EW) system is objective in that I’m looking for specified crossovers. It still makes anticipating the action at inflection points (potential crossover points) less than a certainty. But the confirmations while still ‘late’, are timely enough for me. And adding EW into the view gives me more confidence ahead of those points. Especially, say, when you’re in a wave 2 in one direction, seemingly in a new trend move, but you can anticipate a sharp reversal …. they always come overnight because EW says wave 3 is next, going in the opposite direction and in force.

5. Mark says:

   January 1, 2016 - 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm

   Charging $ for TA analysis I think should be suspect on its face. If you truly have faith in your analysis AND it’s good then you shouldn’t need other people’s money to fund your work. You should be making great money just through your own trading skills and analysis. Charging for TA simply provides one with a steady stream of revenue regardless of how their own trading is performing without having any real accountability except for perhaps risking losing some subscribers. The problem with most folks who charge for TA is that they focus more on the analysis and less on how to be a successful trader/investor.

   • Carolynsue says:

     January 1, 2016 - 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm

     That’s what my husband is always saying too….most recently I was telling him about a book I had bought: “The Trading Methodologies of W.D Gann” by Hima Reddy whose Father Pandu R. Tadoori had a passion for trading and using Gann’s ideas….my husband said: “Well Ms. Reddy must be very wealthy by now”….hmmmm I’ve never heard of her or seen her interviewed on CNBC on featured in the WSJ….

     • pedro_deleon says:

       January 1, 2016 - 1:03 pm at 1:03 pm

       I’m much more sympathetic.
       Most 401k investors don’t have time to do their own analysis.
       In fact, most people don’t have time to develop their own analytical tools. If its to be any good, it likely takes years to refine.
       So … where does that leave retail investors? Trust their brokers? They are just salesmen looking for commissions.
       Trust diversification strategies or indexing? These work until they don’t … as in 2000 and 2008. Then what?
       So you look for someone with tools or a strategy, much like ours, willing to share theirs around which they seek to build a business.
       For some its a lifestyle thing. They don’t want to live in NYC or subscribe to corporate life, but rather be on their own in Montana or a CA beach town.
       Even if they are wrong a lot, it doesn’t take much to add value for customers without a clue or the time.

6. pedro_deleon says:

   January 1, 2016 - 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm

   Someone at Pretzel’s forum just posted the same count, independently I think.
   Right now, I don’t know if my 1700s is the right target or their 500 SPX is correct.
   Anyone looking at the monthly MACD, however, should be VERY AWARE of the risks going forward.
   Its on a sell … and these tend to stay on sell, for a long time.
   OK, so what is my system saying at the moment ?…. (it doesn’t do targets!!).
   I like to look at what I would buy, rather than whether to sell. So looking at SDS, this is what I see.
   VST … hourly .. remains on buy
   ST … daily … still on bearish side of crossover, but rising, and close to a confirmation.
   IT .. weekly … still on bearish side of crossover, but rising, and close to a confirmation.
   LT .. mo … still on bearish side of crossover, but rising, and close to a confirmation.

   Folks, when all three major timeframes are in dynamic alignment (rising), its time to get serious.
   And my LT momentum indicators favor all three crossovers occurring, soon.
   The only question for me is whether the VST charts flip one last time, and put off this larger move for another week or two.

7. dadoc1 says:

   January 1, 2016 - 2:16 pm at 2:16 pm

   Elliott Waves only can be assigned retrospectively. Anything else is just conjecture. All trends point down and I suspect within the next 2 months there will be at the very least a retest of the August lows. The trigger may be apple as its suppliers are saying 5-10% less volume than expected. We shall see….

   • Bikoo99 says:

     January 1, 2016 - 3:28 pm at 3:28 pm

     According to current short term EW wave count if that happens than larger wave count may get confirm. If SPX closes below 1942 It is going down to 1800’s. Also if Indu closes below long term trend line at 17000 it is over.

     yes “assigned retrospectively” until a wave structure emerges. Once a minor wave completes one does not know what will be the next wave structure. there are many till one is confirmed.

   • pedro_deleon says:

     January 1, 2016 - 4:16 pm at 4:16 pm

     Yes, Alistair Gilbert. No relation to Avi Gilburt with a U. I get copied now and then on work from a Gann focused group, and Alistair shows up there now and then. I thought he did solid EW work.