Loading ...Gold Miners – LT EW
This is for the Barron’s gold mining index.
Not my work, but certainly an interesting count.
By no means identical with my LT gold count … but he seems to share my view that we have an ABC to complete into final lows, years from now.
Unfortunately There is another EW analyst has the same view. No hope for gold to be $5k in my life time.
“Years from now” means approximately when please?
Leave the Phys in your Will Guys !
🙂
But how reliable is Elliot Wave Analysis? Robert Prechter’s Elliot Wave analysis performed very poorly over the period from 1988-1997….Hulbert Financial Digest tracked 32 portfolios by 25 newsletters and Robert Prechter’s newsletter “Elliot Wave Theorist” came last for this time period 1988-1997. The Elliot Wave Theorist had an annualized return of 5.84% vs. the S&P 500 annualized return of 18.04% over the same period.
Eric Tyson, a syndicated columnist using Hulbert Financial Digest’s data “showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25% per year since 1985, and that $100,000 invested according to Prechter’s trading advice in 1985 would be worth a mere $1,700 by May 2009”. Source: “Derivatives-Page 847-google Books Result” on a google search I did this morning.
Me thinks you are talking your book. Lots of wishful thinking.
Prechter starts and ends with EW, as far as I can tell, with his analysis. He does use sentiment measures though. I seldom see his work, and would ignore it if I did.
I use more traditional T/A (which measures sentiment), along with underlying fundamentals, and then see which counts are more consistent. So I end with EW.
And I don’t attach too much weight to the short term stuff. My own tools are more reliable.
it’s true I like what Armstrong’s computer is saying better than I like what you are saying i.e., bottom in the metals by next Spring…and I have more experience with Armstrong’s computer’s predictions and no experience at all with yours ….and I hear you refer to Elliot Wave so I made the assumption that you subscribed to that school of analysis but I hear you
I’m VERY comfortable with the basic principles of EW … five wave impulses, three wave corrections and Elliott’s ideas of price structure (and others later working in time and fibs). But if you get to tracking those who use EW, you will quickly realize that its rare to find two of them working off the same count. So I rely on my own work first, and then translate that into EW terms since it suggests that price structures follow known sequences (though never with 100% certainty).