Goldtent TA Paradise

Crude Oil Bottom?

1. pedro_deleon says:

   December 7, 2015 - 6:08 pm at 6:08 pm

   My system includes back tested signals for LT buys.
   Some alerts for those are starting to appear.
   But the preconditions for the actual signals are not close.

   As I noted when you flagged natural gas a weak ago as a possible buy, the potential for a counter trend bounce is certainly there, but the final lows are a long ways off. Weeks for sure, months quite likely.

   Its all tied to the dollar at this point. Deleveraging by foreigners who’ve borrowed in dollars.

2. Mark says:

   December 7, 2015 - 7:35 pm at 7:35 pm

   I suspect you’re correct Pedro. I’m just keeping an eye on this sector right now because it seems to be approaching one of those periods where there is so much blood in the streets that no one wants to touch energy related shares and we may look back at this point in time months from now and wish we had started to accumulate some positions for the long term. The charts are showing green shoots of hope and I have to suspect that investors like Jim Rogers are starting to think about taking positions.

3. Mark says:

   December 7, 2015 - 9:41 pm at 9:41 pm

   When stocks of well-run, well-managed companies like Kinder Morgan look like this, a bottom probably isn’t too far off. Yes, they had their credit rating cut and I wouldn’t be surprised if they cut their dividend soon to help pay down debt but this company will survive and it’s probably worth a little at-risk money if you like the idea of buying when there is blood in the streets.

   http://schrts.co/70AiPe

4. Surf City says:

   December 7, 2015 - 11:35 pm at 11:35 pm

   Mark, From a Time perspective, it would appear the Oil sector has more pain ahead if my normal cycle counts hold.

   I have Oil on Day 28 of its current Trading Cycle TC2 (36-43 days low to low on average). While we will see a bounce to start TC3 I’m not sure how bullish it will be (probably enough to shake off the shorts and lure in new longs).

   Of more concern is the longer Intermediate Cycle (IC) which I have in week 15. As TC2 has now made a lower low than TC1, the longer Intermediate Cycle is most likely in decline as well having topped in week 7. ICs typically last 21-26 weeks low to low so if the average holds we have at least 6 more weeks of downside action at the minimum even with the TC3 bounce.

   • ridedesert says:

     December 8, 2015 - 12:18 am at 12:18 am

     Surf City,

     What do you have the daily cycle at for natgas? I have it on day 25 and the weekly intermediate cycle at 32 weeks. Have something similar over there?

     Thanks!

     • Surf City says:

       December 8, 2015 - 1:13 am at 1:13 am

       Ridedesert, I am a bit confused and conflicted on my Intermediate Cycle NatGas count. My Trading Cycle (Daily Cycle) count matches yours at 25 days so we should be due for a TC Low or DCL very soon.

       For the IC count, I have two possible scenarios. The last “sure” IC Low was back in early April and that was 34-35 weeks ago by my count. Normally we see an ICL between 21-26 weeks so this would be a very long IC at 34-35 weeks. If this is the correct count, then an ICL is overdue.

       If you look at a weekly chart, however, I also see the possibility that we may have made a mild ICL on August 21 (week 20). From a Time perspective, this would be slightly short but possible. Several of the IC oscillators I track were oversold enough to be an ICL.

       If this second scenario is correct, the new IC was very weak and we are only on week 15. Suffice it to say WTIC crude looks like the safer short but the NatGas chart also looks much like Oil last year when I felt that cycles just stopped working.

5. ridedesert says:

   December 8, 2015 - 1:29 am at 1:29 am

   Surf City,

   I see what you mean by regarding the potential August ICL. Not sure if you follow Elliott Wave much but I came across these two links while searching online:

   http://stockcharts.com/public/1836019/chartbook/302113709

   http://economati.blogspot.com/2015/12/ugaz-update_7.html

   They favor an ICL shortly but I know sometimes 5th waves extend in commodities – makes it confusing for a novice like myself to count the waves.

   Figured it couldn’t hurt to share the links.

   Thanks.

   • Surf City says:

     December 8, 2015 - 1:44 am at 1:44 am

     Ridedesert, Thanks for the links. Just starting to learn EWaves so I am less than a novice. I just started the free Trial subscription over on Avi G’s site and have much to learn.

6. EagleSeagle says:

   December 8, 2015 - 7:51 am at 7:51 am

   WTIC Weekly breached support…Many “pro” crude traders have a target of $30 March/April.
   http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44530819475&listNum=1&a=435827812