Mark, the math….
Mark,
Very nice chart.
The target for DUST, depends obviously on how far GDX or really GDM pulls back I guess, but let’s use GDX, and assume they pullback the same.
I was showing a pullback to 15.35 on GDX, where the Wolfe wave target line is. Notice that on your chart, this is exactly where the 38.2% fib retrace is located.
If we pullback to 15.35 on GDX, doing just the straight 3x math, would send dust to $14.96, but usually on a run up for dust it would compound a bit, sending it to the low $15’s.
Now let’s do the math for your pullback scenario to $15 or let’s even say $14.83, which is the center of your target area, and the 50% retrace.
I’ll do the math to see where this should take DUST.
$16.89-14.83= 2.06.
2.06/16.89= .122 (percent change of GDX)
.122*3= .366 (theorized percent change for DUST)
1.366* 11.75= 16.04.
Straight 3X math says a GDX pullback to 14.83 should take DUST to $16.04.
Throw in some daily compounding on DUST’s rise, and I could see DUST going to $16.50 in your deeper than mine GDX pullback, but DUST just experienced a “significant” decay event, one that makes your $20 target impossible to reach with your GDX target.
You’ve given the math much more thought than I did Chuck. I’m simply looking at the chart and perhaps not factoring in the decay.
Yes. DUST just got raped, and it won’t ever forget the raping, cause it was brutal. 🙁
Yes, the 12ish% loss for GDX, says DUST only gains 36%ish….