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Just a quick one on the Cycle timing for Stocks, the USD and Gold.
Stocks are on day 32 and are entering the timing band to head into a Trading Cycle low sometime over the week or two.
Added: A couple of the professional cycle newsletter writers (Gary S and LikesMoney) both seem to think that Stocks had a very shortened Trading Cycle low at 25 days and that we are now in a new Trading Cycle (bullish). Note their Daily Cycle is my Trading Cycle and they could be right here as they are the Pros. This is not my view as this would be a very short TC but it is a possibility which would make shorting the market treacherous here (Gary S thinks the Fed has aborted the 7 year Stock Market low process. He was probably short and got burned).
The USD is also entering the timing band to find a Trading Cycle low over the next 4-9 trading days.
Gold has me confused a bit. It is most likely on day 19 of Trading Cycle #2 and is also in the timing band to find a Trading Cycle Low over the next week or two. It may also be on day 5 of Trading Cycle #3 (not my favorite cycle probability but a possibility).
The conundrum here is that I don’t see how Gold and the USD will move down into Trading Cycle lows together. As always, watch the charts.
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-10-08/d1169.png
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-10-08/d1170.png
the gold chart.. it needs to clear the blue down line just above.. but note how silver caught the bottom of the old fork… and gold did the same….though hasnt popped that much
looks like bearish structure to me.
could be mark.. .. one thing im wondering though.. could we be forming a left shoulder for a top later on.. i really dont have a clue… it could also be forming a head right hear.. and maybe it gives a false breakout on fomc fooling everyone then down.. just showing the options.. fomc less than 20 minutes
thanks for your charts they are diffinitely making me think of both sides.. i remain on the sidelines
GaryS…I would be cautious with such broad based claims such as :The FED has aborted the 7-year stock market bottom cycle” Seriously how much power are you willing to give these morons in white castles otherwise known as the Eccles building. All they have is 2 tools. A printing press and Blarney. Gary has some very deeply seated levels of economic misunderstandings and they permeate his work.
I don’t subscribe to either GaryS or LikesMoney but I do view their public posts. I used to subscribe to Gary’s SMT over a year back. It seemed that every time he got a call wrong, it was the FED’s fault and never his own (i.e Gold manipulated down and Stocks up). While there may be some merit to the manipulation viewpoint as to where QE $ flowed, he should have been able to see all this in the charts and stayed bullish on Gold for too long (still is as far as I can tell).
Cycles are tricky and not perfect by any means just another tool in the box to be used in conjunction with TA.