Loading ...Gold $1,300 by Dec?
Ok…full disclosure….the case for gold to run up to $1,300 by December makes absolutely no sense to me and seems to fly in the face of rationality. With this said, over the past week I keep looking at the gold charts and this Wolfe Wave with supporting indicators keeps jumping out at me. If I try to ignore the fact that this is gold, it suddenly becomes a very compelling chart. The pure chartist in me says I have to at least keep this scenario on the table even though it seems completely ludicrous. Bearing in mind that MA is forecasting a low in December followed by another low in April next year, it makes me wonder if a cycle inversion could be in play (which I know happens in his system periodically) where Dec turns out to be a high instead of a low and perhaps the crash low move is Dec to April? Anyway….I’m sure most of you will scrap this scenario as pure nonsense and perhaps it is but it wouldn’t be the first time that a major move occurred that nobody saw coming but in the rearview mirror it ended up looking so obvious.
And here is the gold chart again I posted on 9/18….I know….makes no sense but so far it’s playing out according to script.
“the case for gold to run up to $1,300 by December makes absolutely no sense to me and seems to fly in the face of rationality.” Why does that seem so hard to believe? Just because it’s gold and not oil? Could it be that you are admitting a bias against gold?
Exactly! I have this script in my head that gold should be running down into the $900s or below by the end of the year and perhaps lower into next spring but the charts just aren’t showing it. We all have bias to fight and I’m trying my best to do it. I’m 100% long gold and miners right now until the charts give me a reason not to be positioned this way but it’s hard blocking out all the other voices and seemingly good opinions for lower gold. In the end I will trust my charts but it’s a tough game of psychology for sure!
I like your style. Going against your bias in favour of the charts. I’ve been long miners and gold for years because that’s my bias.
your OWN knowing of things is so important and finding the balance between what your experience is telling you is happening while also weighing the opinions of others…what I mean is keep letting us know what you are seeing in the data….
and I should add that there are things going on behind the scenes that could change the gold price overnight–just one is China’s current acceptance of the UK and US manipulation of the World gold price via derivatives in the Future’s Market. When a lower gold price no longer benefits China (for example,there is no more physical gold in the vaults in London or the US for China to buy in size) China then says “that’s enough gold price fixing or we are going to start dumping our US Treasury holdings”….or China just comes out and says it has 30,000 tonnes of gold reserves….there is stuff going on that Armstrong’s computer hasn’t encountered yet that could change the situation in a heartbeat….so if gold keeps refusing to go down….it’s a good idea to watch the charts like a hawk to see when or if they start to reflect what isn’t
currently widely known
Also I should add that I’m a chart purist, that is I believe everything should be reflected in the charts…price/volume/structure/indicators….so that any misdirection moves should be reflected in the chart action (eg bearish flags on waning volume, divergence…) If this move above resistance in gold was just a 1-2 day headfake, it really shouldn’t be occurring on such heavy volume, positive divergence on oscillators and OBV, bullish COT, cycle bottom area of $BPGPM, and bullish structure. Also keep in mind that we already had two rounds of upward pops that could be attributed to short covering rallies. This one is bouncing off basing levels and appears to be fueled by new investment and very heavy buying in the biggest names like ABX, AU, AEM, GG, FNV, and GOLD. Plus silver is leading which is bullish for gold. With so many articles out now forecasting that most miners will end up bankrupt (i.e. http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/future-gold-and-silver-mining-simple-pictures-14894) very soon, you could see why institutional investors would only want to climb into the bigger names. It also is a contrarian indicator for at least big bounce if not a more significant bottom. Some of the biggest gold bulls on 1-2-3 Gold and other venues have all been writing about how we will have this wonderful buying opportunity once gold gets in the $900s and they are biding their time. The perfect way to screw these guys is to set gold flying upward now above resistance and then have them reverse course, buying with both fists, once levels like $1180 or $1220 get taken out just to hammer them hard when they are fully invested after perhaps December. Just some random musings of mine that the charts seem to support.
Mark knows I have a great Respect for his work
And a good healthy debate is what this site is all about
So……
I don’t buy it but I have an acquired taste for Crow
Lots of butter and salt and pepper
NOTHING on my charts says we are going up here
Your second chart …extend the red dotted line
First we need that to be taken out .
So far this is just a holding pattern below a MAJOR breakdown of a rather long term pattern
Rambus has showed time and again ,,,often a smaller pattern developing just below a major breakout is bearish
Here is my take
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48281220340&a=422690771
Tough Resistance at 1150 1160 1170 and ultimately 1225 !
Pass the Popcorn
There’s no question Fully that in a 4-yr downtrend that there will be layers upon layers of resistance to overcome once price moves back up. We need to watch for bearish structure to develop at those major resistance areas and trade accordingly. We broke one significant resistance level this past week and others lay immediately overhead. All that I’m saying is that we all need to keep an open mind if and when successive resistance levels start getting broken that we don’t continue to just be dismissive of the action, citing how just another resistance level $5 higher is likely to smack everything down. Before you know it, you could be missing a really huge trade even if this isn’t a bottom. What if gold does go to the $1225 resistance you’ve cited before reversing? Is that a trade you don’t want to participate in? You could more than double your money in the 3X ETFs on such a trade. Remember, this is all about making money….and not just being able to say “see?…I was right all along!” I feel that trading is very Darwinian and those who best adapt to change will survive. As you know, I don’t hesitate to change my stance on a dime if the charts support it.
My personal view of the markets are they produce the greatest amount of pain for the greatest number of participants. When everyone starts running to one side of the boat, I try and eyeball the other-side. Imagine the surprise for the most people should gold rally, and the influx of new $ into the miners and goldbugs crawling out of their holes and backing the truck up !
I trade very short periods of time these days, and they keep getting shorter with the movements so I don’t really care, but when the gold shorts outnumber the longs, start to look long….and vice versa.
thanks mark for your charts and posts. Im also seeing bullish devergences.. what i call channel divergences in the miners on the daily charts..
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-09-26/d1025.png
gdxj shorter term daily channel… you can see the top rail of this fork is hot.. it been rejected twice so far off the top rail.. really needs to get above that for the bulls… however, notice how the lows are stepping up in the channel… that is a bullish devergence……
gdx.. step up in the channel also.. higher floor essentially within the channel….which is bullish
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-09-26/d1026.png
there is a ton of resistance above should it continue up.. 17 area then 18 something above that
one other other comment.. gold can rise quicker than people realize; the last dramatic pop was back in later december of last year .. in a matter of 12 days it went from 1167 to 1300.. . so if there is a continued rise in gold… it may not necessarily take to the end of november..but could be over by the first week of october…. but who knows for sure..
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-09-26/d1031.png
gold weekly … major resistance just overheard at around 1165 area.. however, there is a step in the steeper channel .. and this seems to be morphing into a less steep channel…. should it rise above 1165 … 1207 might be the first area of resistance.. proven resistance at the 1257 area…and then 1285
the step up in the steeper channel is bullish.. but it needs to get through that 1165 area .. this is the third test of that top channel line.. but this time we have a step in the channel floor which tends to give credence that the 1165 area might be broken this time around.. guess we will see.. weekly lines are always the toughest to break.. but could lead to an explosion upward if it does break as everybody will believe the bull is back. .
Martin Armstrong says gold has to close above 1188 on a weekly basis “to think there is some sustainability short term. We need that signal to reach the technical resistance in the mid 1200 level. We have a crisis in confidence and a crisis in German banking during the ECM target on Sept30/Oct 1 which will shake the tree of public confidence on a major global level”.
MA also said:”Gold’s rally into the target weeks for the ECM appear to be linked to the potential crisis in European Banking. This has nothing to do with the dollar, fiat, inflation or whatever. The only reason gold rises is the hedge against real crisis and uncertainty”.
MA’s Sept 24 comments are titled with this: “Will Gold Complete the September Rally”
repost in two parts.. think this forum allows only on link per post so that is reason for repost…..
thanks mark for your charts and posts. Im also seeing bullish devergences.. what i call channel divergences in the miners on the daily charts..
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-09-26/d1025.png
gdxj shorter term daily channel… you can see the top rail of this fork is hot.. it been rejected twice so far off the top rail.. really needs to get above that for the bulls… however, notice how the lows are stepping up in the channel… that is a bullish devergence……
gdx.. step up in the channel also.. higher floor essentially within the channel….which is bullish… post on gdx to follow
gdx..below
http://charts.dacharts.net/2015-09-26/d1026.png
there is a ton of resistance above should it continue up.. 17 area then 18 something above that
one other other comment.. gold can rise quicker than people realize; the last dramatic pop was back in later december of last year .. in a matter of 12 days it went from 1167 to 1300.. . so if there is a continued rise in gold… it may not necessarily take to the end of november..but could be over by the first week of october…. but who knows for sure
also want to add…..a rejection off 1200 area on the gold chart i posted above would signal that the less steep slope line below which acted as support would likely breach….