For starters I have little doubt that the S&P has turned over…the trend has turned down for sure. However, as I look at price action on the monthly against the 20MA it seems that we are possibly a wee bit early in the cycle for crash-style selloff to occur, assuming that the price movements in 2001 and 2008 serve as any guide. It seems that once prices begins trading below the 20MA they tend to do so for about 4 months before the cliff dive begins in earnest. It’s almost like the swan dive pauses just long enough for traders to think “Hmmmm….maybe we’re out the woods?” Prices began trading below the 20MA in August so just eyeballing things, perhaps the plunge doesn’t start until November? I’m just spitballing here but that could line up with MA’s forecast of a meaningful low in gold in December.

SPX