Loading ...Gold and the USD
This post will provide an update on the longer term Intermediate Cycles for both the USD and Gold. Every asset (USD, Gold, Oil, Stocks, Bonds, etc.) has an Intermediate Cycle that lasts approx 180 days or 6 months from IC Low to IC Low. The actual time band for each asset varies but you get the picture.
For Gold, much depends on the USD. Unless the USD made its IC Low back in late August on week 15 (this would be quite early), then it is now entering the timing band when we would expect it to find its IC Low sometime over the next 1-4 weeks. From a cycle perspective, it should now make a Lower Low than late August. Key events over the next month which could provide a catalyst into an IC Low are the US Debt approval by Congress (Oct 1st) and the next FMOC meeting in late October.
Here are couple of cycle charts on Gold. The first shows the current uptrend channel for Gold out of its last Intermediate Cycle Low.. The second chart shows Golds last 6 Intermediate Cycles (both the price trend lines and the weeks into a cycle High before moving into the longer term Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL).
Welcome to the tent Surf City
Your unique perspective will be appreciated by Lurkers and Posters .
Very interesting fork
Hi Surf City, I find this kind of analysis fascinating because it deals only in price info. I also like action/reaction line analysis but do not know a great deal about it.
Where is gold with respect to the pitchfork(s) that come from the late 2012 high at $1800 or any pitchfork(s) that were formed immediately after the early 2013 crash? Do you have any charts for those?
Hi Dave, Yes Cycles add in the element of Time along with Price. They are useful in estimating Cycle Lows (cycle highs are more difficult and depend on a number of factors, including weather the asset is in a Bull or Bear market.)
I do track some older Forks and will try and post them later today.