Goldtent TA Paradise

GLD still weak but due for a possible bounce…

Monday will give us direction…

1. Tim says:

   September 12, 2015 - 9:51 am at 9:51 am

   Looks like a nice breakout that’s turned halfway to make a backtest. The completion of the backtest, early Monday, would be a small gain for DUST then a sudden reversal as it bounces off the broken trend line. I’d agree that gold is weak in the multi-day context but that it’s got enough strength to pull these small rallies, which to no surprise to any TA person, come whenever it hits a support line on its way down.

   I read part of a book by Al Brooks who focuses entirely on chart data without any indicators; just price action. He said he would ask himself this question all the time, “if you had to be in the market all the time, which direction would you be in right now: long or short?” None of us would ever be in the market all the time, but it’s a good training question to ask oneself because it forces us to constantly sum up which way we think prices are going. When gold hit the 1099 support line Friday I started “hoping” it would break through because, subconsciously, I knew I was now on the wrong side of the price action. I hoped it would break down but I “knew” it would bounce up. It was a gut feeling but I think, as weird as this sounds, our guts are more objective than our brains. Isn’t a reversal the most likely outcome of price reaching a support and resistance line?

   I’ll bet we see this sort of cascading trading range again and again: 2 steps DUST and one step NUGT. I’ve read many times that one shouldn’t argue with the markets and yet I do it every time I expect the market to do something. Don’t expect anything; follow the trend. Which is to say, as we’ve often heard: trade the chart in front of you. My gut knew that and it can’t even see the chart!

2. Tim says:

   September 12, 2015 - 11:35 am at 11:35 am

   I tried out something I picked up from drawing channels on 1 minute charts; make the last high or low your first trendline point and revolve the line around to see if anything else on the chart lines up with that last point. A sort of “what if?” strategy. I found a possible channel on the GDX that might be interesting. The top line of the purple channel is the original and the bottom, which amazingly fits nicely, is just a clone of it.
   GDX 15 purple channel”
   http://ambaka.com/charts/GDX%2015%20purple%20channel.png

3. Tim says:

   September 12, 2015 - 11:46 am at 11:46 am

   I tried out something I picked up from drawing channels on quick moving 1 minute charts (UVXY); make the last high or low your first trendline point and pivot the line around it to see if anything else on the chart lines up with that last point. A sort of “what if?” strategy.

   I found a possible channel on the GDX that might be interesting and added a link to the image. The top line of the purple channel is the original trendline drawn by pivoting off that near EOD high. The bottom line of the channel, which fits surprisingly well, is just a clone of the top which I slid down to cover the low points as best it could. It covers them so well I’d say it’s a real trendline.

   http://ambaka.com/charts/GDX%2015%20purple%20channel.png

4. EagleSeagle says:

   September 12, 2015 - 2:51 pm at 2:51 pm

   You might be on to something…so many variables and possibilities.

5. Mark says:

   September 13, 2015 - 9:17 am at 9:17 am

   GDX followed GLD and S&P Friday. Structure is still bearish.

   http://schrts.co/NGDfHA

6. Mark says:

   September 13, 2015 - 9:19 am at 9:19 am

   DUST still looks fine but you need watch out for a breakdown.

   http://schrts.co/WNDOvC

   Likewise JDST

   http://schrts.co/zVfNuD