Loading ...Where are We?
Someone sent me an email suggesting that perhaps we were in a time period similar to June 2014 where many were calling for the bottom to fall out but instead the GDX moved 7 pts in the opposite direction. While it’s healthy to keep all scenarios in mind, I often find it also helps to look at price action with a 200-period BBand overlay to provide some perspective in terms of trend and current price strength. As you can see from the chart below, which I updated today, price action in June 2014 was far healthier than it is today. The setup now is much more favorable for continued trending downward ,and in fact a potential gap down next week look quite plausible as we’ve already had the short-covering, backtest move to the intermediate TL (labeled X) and prices keep getting pushed down. I will keep watching for bullish structure to develop along with other signs that resistance is no longer in charge, but for now price action has given us no reason to alter our bearish stance.
Note: You could make an argument that we are actually in the fractal consolidation period closer to the “top of the hill”, thereby suggesting the fall from here could be much farther than my chart above shows. GDXJ suggests this alternative more clearly….I will try to post tomorrow.
9/7 – GDXJ Chart – could be a long ways down from here………..
It is going to be interesting over the next 10 days or so leading up to the sept 17th Fed meeting. I don’t know why they just don’t raise a 1/4 pt in sept. and a 1/4 pt in dec and then see how it all shakes out. If the $$ increases strength too much, they can always add in some QE to balance it out.
I am wondering if the impact is more psychological than economic, but the overall impact is not foreseeable by me.
Looking forward to the GDXJ chart.