Loading ...A Close at Resistance – Constructive for a Short Position
I actually was happy to see the close today while positioned short. I added a tiny bit to JDST near the end of the day at 10.73 but I do think it could fall a little farther while still maintaining appropriate trend. The only time I add to my position is when I see GDX/GDXJ/GLD hitting resistance and the market lobbed an opportunity to us today.
GDX H&S still looking good. Nice shakeout of weak shorts right into multiple resistance.
GDX trajectory bizarrely is moving exactly as I “guessed”. I haven’t modified those arrows showing my guestimate of a path in several days.
My premise with “line in the sand” since 8/28 has not changed at all.
In short, I like how things stand going into next week with my fully loaded short position.
Edit: Here’s a chart showing why I think JDST could dip a bit farther before moving up next week.
http://schrts.co/zVfNuD
Have a good weekend…we deserve a break 🙂
Curious Mark: do you have bottom target on GDX and a time horizon? You may have mentioned it. New here. From Rambus.
Great work Mark, I am also fully short. Thanks
I’m not very good at predicting timeframes and I typically look left in the charts at significant lows and highs to provide target prices. MA seems to think Nov and next April are important possible gold low dates….perhaps he’s updated this lately, I don’t know. My monthly HUI charts suggests we could hit 60. In the near term, my hourly GDX chart has a swing low of $11 targeted. I really tend to keep an eye on structure and how prices behave around support/resistance levels while looking at volume patterns too and go with the tide.
Someone sent me an email last night wondering if the current price action is a bear trap set up. That of course can always happen but I’m not seeing any of that structure develop yet on the intraday charts. Generally the set up for a trap would included a strong a move in the trap direction (in this case a spike down in GDX) followed by a flag or triangle building against resistance with a subsequent jump over resistance. Maybe next week sets that up but for now I see no trap brewing. Here’s some thoughts on a 5-min chart showing what I look for.
http://schrts.co/nYtS1f