Loading ...US DOLLAR : TOO BIG TO FAIL
RAMBUS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE DOLLAR MOVE SINCE HE STARTED HIS SITE .
He was the ONE to see the BIG BASE Fractals BEFORE the breakout !
NOW we have a breakout of an historic trendline…with what be believes is a Halfway Pattern
building just above 35 year downtrend SUPPORT !
This is the scenario I favor until and unless this is shown to be a false breakout
Which after such a LONG TIME BASE …..is considered unlikely
The RSI is high but look at the left side of the chart
RSI can “embed” in a strong move…looks “reset” enough now to carry on higher if this is a strong move
WEEKLY 15 YEAR CHART…NICE CHARTOLOGY
WEEKLY EURO…THIS CHART I HAVENT LOOKED AT IN 6 MONTHS !
STILL ON TRACT
I had a similar USDX chart in my gold essay posted a while back, a bout 2/3 the way down. It was a linear not a log chart and had the breakout at 90.
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/essay-on-gold-comparing-current.html
I have noted that the upmove after the breakout has lasted 2-5 years in the past (1983-85 and also mid-1990s to 2001/2) and we are only a year into the current USDX upmove so far if you measure it from the start of the impulsive upmove at around 80 USDX in mid-2014.
Do you put any credence in the bullish falling wedge formation proposed for the USDX starting in 1985?
It depends where you measure it room but the two previous big upmoves of the two main US dollar index bull markets lasted quite a while.
Among other things I measured the width of the bull market at half height, a nice little tilt to a principle of physics.
It was 2.5 years in the early 1980s bull market peak and 2.5-4.5 years in the case of the late 1990s bull market, since there is a correction in the way that complicates matters. Those who are predicting the dollar is topping now (August 2015) are betting on a peak with of about a year or perhaps less, i.e. just a spike. That would not be in line with history at all.
I like the way the dollar on your top chart has come back to test the line of the breakout and bounced off it.