Anyone who continues to use the back test approach trading DUST is just plain !!@@!!?? you’ll give up well deserved gains at the back test zone and if a follow thru takes place your back to min gains, might as well trade 1X ETFs… “IF” Dust is going much higher the indicators will lead the way its really that simple, I know because I’m the dumbest successful trader ever.
NO indication to be holding a short position was given on Fri, regardless of today perhaps being nothing more than a short covering or new longs positions being created never argue with the indicators as you will never know the power behind the turn = a dud or a decent momentum swing….if your going to trade 3X vehicles you must use Tweaked indicators and when the STD indicators turn get the F out!
Shorting or selling a backtest in a well defined downtrend (like GDXJ) is a low risk/high reward approach. You will know right away if you’re wrong and can keep a tight stop…meanwhile, the trend is in your favor and so are your odds for a nice move in your favor.
You keep far more of your % gains Mark selling JDST when the indicators turn rather than giving back great gains as you let GDXJ rise towards the back test zone
Matrix – I agree and I think we are both correct here. I don’t subscribe to just riding out a pullback to backtest resistance. I sold JDST in the $16s and then started short-term/daytrading the past few weeks waiting for a good setup again. I loaded up Friday at $13.50 and lower….yes, I had a miserable day today but as of Friday I was at my year high in trading account value. I think the charts are still intact for now on JDST and I’m holding my position. I will bail tomorrow if prices don’t bounce from here.
Grin – The $USD is in a very strong uptrend and Gold is in a very strong downtrend. I think trying to countertrend trade them for anything more than really short term is swimming upstream. I always find it easy to make money buying steep pullback in and uptrend and selling spikes to resistance on downtrend. The trend really is your friend as cheesey as that sounds.
My “main” trading chart DUST 60 is lined up for a big move tomorrow. Indicators lined up, Trend line right above the gap touched and bounced (gaps get filled later than sooner during impulse moves), and all the evidence you have shared. gold is dropping as I type…I think we are spot on…but watch NUGT $3.47
Looks bearish to me. On the 5 minute, the jump back up over 1103 resulted in a drop back below the line and a backtest which is now failing and falling more. The USD jumped too and crude dropped just like gold. The big thing is that gold is back below the big line. If this was oil, I’d say it’s going lower.
Which reminds me, oil is making a strange shape on the 5 min chart. A sort of cup and handle thing with a very smooth, geometric curvature. The TSI and MACD on the 60 min are turning down and it looks like the 13/34 will soon also. Hard to believe there’s a deeper bottom coming for crude but recessions have always done a lot for reducing demand. In fact I always thought that that was the one thing that could derail a recovery for crude this year: a stock market crash and the recession that usually follows.
Anyone who continues to use the back test approach trading DUST is just plain !!@@!!?? you’ll give up well deserved gains at the back test zone and if a follow thru takes place your back to min gains, might as well trade 1X ETFs… “IF” Dust is going much higher the indicators will lead the way its really that simple, I know because I’m the dumbest successful trader ever.
NO indication to be holding a short position was given on Fri, regardless of today perhaps being nothing more than a short covering or new longs positions being created never argue with the indicators as you will never know the power behind the turn = a dud or a decent momentum swing….if your going to trade 3X vehicles you must use Tweaked indicators and when the STD indicators turn get the F out!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=15&id=p53140318976&a=418171605&listNum=1
Good luck to you Mr ES
Shorting or selling a backtest in a well defined downtrend (like GDXJ) is a low risk/high reward approach. You will know right away if you’re wrong and can keep a tight stop…meanwhile, the trend is in your favor and so are your odds for a nice move in your favor.
http://schrts.co/JPoL3s
http://schrts.co/cn4UwZ
usd also looking very bearish
You keep far more of your % gains Mark selling JDST when the indicators turn rather than giving back great gains as you let GDXJ rise towards the back test zone
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03472280500&a=419960414&listNum=1
Matrix – I agree and I think we are both correct here. I don’t subscribe to just riding out a pullback to backtest resistance. I sold JDST in the $16s and then started short-term/daytrading the past few weeks waiting for a good setup again. I loaded up Friday at $13.50 and lower….yes, I had a miserable day today but as of Friday I was at my year high in trading account value. I think the charts are still intact for now on JDST and I’m holding my position. I will bail tomorrow if prices don’t bounce from here.
Grin – The $USD is in a very strong uptrend and Gold is in a very strong downtrend. I think trying to countertrend trade them for anything more than really short term is swimming upstream. I always find it easy to make money buying steep pullback in and uptrend and selling spikes to resistance on downtrend. The trend really is your friend as cheesey as that sounds.
Here’s a 5-min NUGT chart for ya Eagle 😉
http://schrts.co/hzGhw9
You too, will become a “minute man” 🙂
It’s 2138 and the dollar is popping…Long time till the am, but I can go to sleep now.
Backtests are everywhere in the charts tonight. http://schrts.co/9WXKlx
My “main” trading chart DUST 60 is lined up for a big move tomorrow. Indicators lined up, Trend line right above the gap touched and bounced (gaps get filled later than sooner during impulse moves), and all the evidence you have shared. gold is dropping as I type…I think we are spot on…but watch NUGT $3.47
Shazaam Holy Batman! Do you see gold…Now I cannot sleep!
Looks bearish to me. On the 5 minute, the jump back up over 1103 resulted in a drop back below the line and a backtest which is now failing and falling more. The USD jumped too and crude dropped just like gold. The big thing is that gold is back below the big line. If this was oil, I’d say it’s going lower.
Which reminds me, oil is making a strange shape on the 5 min chart. A sort of cup and handle thing with a very smooth, geometric curvature. The TSI and MACD on the 60 min are turning down and it looks like the 13/34 will soon also. Hard to believe there’s a deeper bottom coming for crude but recessions have always done a lot for reducing demand. In fact I always thought that that was the one thing that could derail a recovery for crude this year: a stock market crash and the recession that usually follows.
Futures all over the place…today will be interesting.