Loading ...Some Counts
I’m not expecting anything exciting to happen until Greece is solved. Here are some charts showing where I think we are and might be heading….
SPY: $SPX UP to 2140 or so then down… Note, SPY chart shown…
Dollar: This one is tough… may have more downside or at least a retest… (EWO implies so but it hasn’t totally broken down below the line)… Break above 24.97 would be bullish…
Gold Miners Trend: Still down but have gotten needed divergence for a change on ULT (not shown)
GDX Weekly: On a BUY… Not real excited though since the CCI was not “deep” (see shaded areas)… but this still implies 1-2 weeks of upside… hmmmm…. hmmmm….. maybe Armstrong’s chart is RIGHT!!!!
GDX 2HR: Finishing up a (iv) then down… 100% target shown in shade but 62% would do it….
What Armstrong said on this blog yesterday….
Gold has jumped back above $1200 as short positions were building up by hedge funds with no follow through just yet. The pop is on the idea that the Fed will be raising rates slower than feared. This is the typical brain-dead analysis, for anyone who bother to simply do a correlation of interest rates and inflation will quickly see that interest rates rise WITH inflation and DECLINE with DEFLATION. So it really makes no sense what they are even saying.
Nevertheless, the Directional Change hits today and the market is unfolding on time. Resistance is at 1205 and 1208 followed by 1215 and then 1225. So unless we can accomplish a daily closing above 1208 area, there is nothing to get really excited about. This is the seasonal period for a turning point in June and a high at this time will still be on schedule for the decline into at least the FIRST Benchmark target but there is a significant chance we may extend into the SECOND Benchmark Target for the final low.
Surely Armstrong knows what the markets were saying with that knee-jerk reaction in gold after the Fed meeting. Yes, interest rates rise during inflation. But inflation is conceived through interest rates being held too low for too long, or even through interest rates rising slower than expected. The market feels that it is time to raise rates, yet the Fed is staying at ZIRP. This is beginning more and more to raise the awareness of market observers. “What the heck is going on?” “Why are they still at zero?” This is what the watchers are whispering to each other in the cigar lounge. They do not yet perceive that the end-game is upon us. They do not know what so many of us small fish have known since ZIRP and QE were implemented, namely, that there is no climbing out of the hole they have dug for themselves. It is either stay loose, or cooked goose. Of course, the perception of the big fish in the cigar lounge is the only thing that really matters, because they are the ones who tip markets. All we can do is anticipate their next move and get there before everyone else does.