The choppy tediousness of the stock market from day to day, as well as its inability to simply fall, has masked weakness that feels like it could precipitate out at any moment. It would take but a mild sell off of just 14 points from Friday’s settlement price to turn the daily chart bearish impulsive. The last time that happened was in early May, and it led to a sharp reversal to new record highs. The pattern could repeat, but we should be on our guard against a possible surprise — and I don’t mean a good surprise.

In the meantime, I’ve all but given up on shorting a major Hidden Pivot target I’d flagged a while back at 2138.00, having passed up a chance to do so three weeks ago at 2134.00 that may have been the best opportunity we’ll get. Still, if the S&Ps have been in a topping process for the last several months, it would be the most boring bull market top that I can recall — a series of marginally higher peaks rather than the spectacular blowoff one might expect as a finale to the most powerful bull market in U.S. history. In any event, we should keep a close eye on this decline, especially if it generates a follow-through leg similar to the hypothetical one I’ve drawn. Price action at the Hidden Pivot labeled ‘p’ could provide telling clues about the health, or lack thereof, of this aging bull market.