Loading ...GDX EW Update with Targets
If minute iv has completed then (iii) should end around 18.54. Up in and abc to wave (iv) 19.57 38.2%. Then 5 waves down to 1=5 target of 17.51. This may be low from what I’m seeing now. 62% of that would also satisfy the final move down…. Then as for GLD would expect a 3-wave corrective up with more downside to come or, more likely, a 5-wave move up off the low.
I have some issues with the count targets. Wave (iii) can’t be The smallest impulse wave in a five wave structure, and wave (iv) shouldn’t rebound into wave (i) territory.
Correct. We should go lower than 18.54 in (iii) than I am showing. I wasn’t too worried about the rules at this point… I just wanted a map to show where we might be going. The problem is that I can count 3 waves down from (ii)… the minute i and minute ii are fine… and I can count 5 waves for a minute iii down to 18.67. It looked that we might be working on a minute iv and it kinda smells like a four (i.e., triangle). If all that is correct then minute v should extend lower but then a 1=5 target would put it at 18.54 … an extension would get us lower… Well we’ll know next week. My minor (iv) was just the 38.2% retrace for the move as projected… typical of a wave four. In reality we might just try to close the Gap.
Now another way to look at this is to consider the move from 21.25 to 19.15 an ‘A’… the move from 19.15 to 19.91 a ‘B’… then our projected A=C target would be 17.80… Whoa that’s close to a 78.6% retrace (i.e., 17.95) of my projected move down (i.e., 17.51) which I don’t believe we’ll reach. I like the ABC projected count even better!!!! hmmmmm…..
Note also that GDX doesn’t always follow the Elliot Rules. In fact a lot of the Gold related stocks don’t follow the rules strictly, a comment Lara and other Elliot Wave Gurus have made several times. In fact Lara puts out her GDX counts free just for this reason. They’re not “Elliot” enough for her. Peter Mathers at the Trading Lounge is also loose with the rules. I tend to follow Peter.
The reason to do the counts whether right or wrong, whether they fit the Elliot Rules or not, is to not only help in price prediction (in conjunction with the Fibs and Chartology) but to get a feel for a trend change. If you can count 5 waves down/up then you’d expect a three wave corrective up/down… but if you get a 5 wave corrective it’s indicating that the trend may be changing… I NEVER base my trades on EW (mine or someone elses). I trade by my chart indicators and I watch the EWO for price divergence. EW just gives me an idea of where we may/may not be heading…
Thanks Trek Trader for this invaluable information
Interesting that PMs Don’t follow the rules
I suspected as much
I cracked up laughing when I read this in one of Lara’s posts:
“GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason. I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.”