First a look at the Weekly Chart. Would expect a turn up next week. If we get it then the trend would be up for trading the Daily/2HR/30Min charts…. Note, however, that this doesn’t have to turn up directly like it did in March. If you look at September-November it dragged on with lower lows (CCI actually shows price divergence). For those not familiar with my trading method, the RSI(5) trigger line cross defines the buy and sells in whatever time frame chart you’re looking at…. note, therefore, around the first of November we got the RSI(5) trigger line cross at 16.34. The CCI(10) is the call to arms so to speak to get ready to make a trade. The RSI(5) trigger line cross says when to make the trade with a quick look at the SlowSTO for confirmation… If the SlowSTO hasn’t turned or isn’t even close then wait (applies to all time frames)…

0604_GDXWeekly

Daily chart should have some more downside to go. a=c target would be 17.74 but would be satisfied by 62% retrace of 18.56. I don’t worry so much about the price targets because they are what they are … targets… what we need to watch are trigger line crosses on CCI, RSI, SlowSTO, and FastSTO. Sometimes the StochRSI(5) underlying the Slow STO can serve as an early indicator when it crosses the 20 line (note green circles). It’s really too hard to trade the daily, that’s why I use the 2HR chart and 30Min charts, but you want to keep an eye on it… A turn IS near… next week might just do it…. Can the price fall lower even if we get our crosses. Of course, but read on and remember I trade the 2HR charts – I don’t hold and hope!!!!

0604_GDXDaily

2Hour Chart shows we have (if my count is correct) one more leg down before an abc corrective up.  Note that today’s Gap makes today’s move a wave iii.  We should get a minor wave iv correction with at least one more move down. Note the EWO.  Normally after a 5 wave move down and 3 wave correction, I consider the EWO Move to be over (for this trade!!!). On lower timeframe charts you can see easier that we achieved our price divergence with the 19.15 low… However, the EWO did not cross back up above the 0.000 line. I believe we’re still looking for further divergence for the 19.15 low… hmmm we got that today!!!! Looking at the Weekly, Daily, and 2HR charts together, I think one more move down and then up we go into an abc corrective. Does that mean we have hit bottom. Don’t know, but if the Daily and Weekly turn bullish then it is the bottom. How will we know if they turn bullish? We will get trigger line crosses on the CCI, RSI, FastSTO, and SlowSTO.  Remember the chart I posted on “Anatomy of a GAP”. We now have 3-Gap Downs (well actually four but I won’t count the small gap down yesterday that was almost filled).  After we finish the wave 5 either tomorrow or next week (if my count is correct), then we should be heading up… I think I said that earlier but I want to make a point. What we will be looking for in the corrective is either 3-waves up meaning we go down again in five waves or 5-waves up in which case we will get a 3-wave corrective down then 5-waves up to higher prices… This is what you always are looking for in a corrective. Is it the expected 3-waves or does it turn into 5-waves!!!!!  If it turns into 5-waves you have a TREND CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

0604_GDX2HR

Hope all this helps…. Note that until the Weekly chart signals a BUY, I will not trade long. I will take profits along the way and buy back lower by watching my indicators… Note that if this thing accelerates to a bottom don’t expect 38% or even 62% retraces… 23% retraces may be all we get…